tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1928567854636958738..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Shock And AweMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84585566043364609922009-03-19T03:13:00.000+00:002009-03-19T03:13:00.000+00:00Why is everyone's attention on the AIG bonus only?...Why is everyone's attention on the AIG bonus only? Did they forget that Merrill paid $3.6 billion? Maybe that money is too difficult to claw back, hence everyone is onto the low hanging fruit.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61635104675956946282009-03-19T02:57:00.000+00:002009-03-19T02:57:00.000+00:00the major indices are all short term overbought, S...the major indices are all short term overbought, SPX, INDU,XLF etc....GLD not so, dollar should remain weak against the Euro--but this is a massive experiement that failed in Japan--see Richard Koo's work on Japan QE--this is it, the last bullets--except for Obama on Jay Leno tonight--gee with Bernanke on 60 minutes, and all of his proxies on the Sunday talk circuit and Obama with a truly porr showin at a town meeting today and his Leno appearance to be followed up by more administration talking heads this weekend and his speach to the Nation next week--do ya get the feeling these guys are scared to death? They should be, especially since Dodd and the rest of the Dems knew very well what was in the AIG retention bonuc deal a long time ago--corrupt to the core. This will all end very, very poorly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85399027189947229182009-03-19T02:16:00.000+00:002009-03-19T02:16:00.000+00:00mmm ...maybe its because http://blogs.cfr.org/sets...mmm ...maybe its because http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/18/a-bit-more-to-worry-about-foreign-demand-for-long-term-treasuries-has-faded/<BR/><BR/>Or maybe flattening the curve some more will really really help the banks.<BR/><BR/>Or is it the pressing need to do a competitive devaluation and get the beggar (bugger?)your neighbour bandwagon really rolling.<BR/><BR/>Or maybe the Fed has seen the light and converted to the Weimar/Harare school of macro economic management. After all whats the use of owning the reserve currency if you cant have some fun once in a while. <BR/><BR/>Anyway forget gold and go long wheelbarrowsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27480703898061653892009-03-19T02:07:00.000+00:002009-03-19T02:07:00.000+00:00Add this to TALF, BOE QE policy, Japan QE policy, ...Add this to TALF, BOE QE policy, Japan QE policy, etc, and hyperinflation doesn't sound like any kind of exaggeration. I think the credit spreads will collapse to, considering everyone is now getting on the short dollar, long commodities trade. Inflation is a serious threat to all of those dollar hoarders. I like long equity plays that will benefit off of eroding dollars i.e. battered manufacturers out of the auto industry.Jeffrey D. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13278340373246734203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9849718281872630692009-03-19T02:03:00.000+00:002009-03-19T02:03:00.000+00:00gates, you say you've been a manager for 22 years,...gates, you say you've been a manager for 22 years, so you've probably had children.<BR/>let's say you had a early teen daughter and she's getting on the internet chat room scene and says 'look daddy i've got a new friend named hot gates.' <BR/><BR/>what do you do?<BR/><BR/>you get her off that computer for good!<BR/><BR/>gatsey, lose that unprofessional nick!!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2113106528905918982009-03-19T00:55:00.000+00:002009-03-19T00:55:00.000+00:00I'm no Macro Man certainly, but my amateur answer ...I'm no Macro Man certainly, but my amateur answer "why didn't BOJ's QE work" is<BR/><BR/>"It did work. BOJ inflated huge asset bubbles with funny money, but the bubbles didn't happen in Japan." <BR/><BR/>If the carry trade is possible then this always seems like a risk. <BR/><BR/>Where's the next bubble going to blow?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58448270571097686622009-03-19T00:35:00.000+00:002009-03-19T00:35:00.000+00:00certainly can't chase bonds after they moved so mu...certainly can't chase bonds after they moved so much...USD under bollinger band may be the same<BR/><BR/>GLD had too large volume into a lower low today, so by richard wyckoff method it will go back down there later or sooner<BR/><BR/>if the investor can trade american it's USO for oil etf and UDN for dollar down etf<BR/><BR/>M-M will have to be bullish china for the crude, as ellie clampett would say: golly the first .382 fib up from low to all time high would be in the 70's in the bubblin' crude<BR/><BR/>it seems to be performance anxiety over here on equities, and the options market makers must have felt the pressure as the market moved away from the 'pins' of 750 spx and 28 qqqq, so hard to tell when it will stop<BR/><BR/>can an individual investor buy equities when they're up +20% off the low in two weeks? -doesn't seem like a good risk reward to me<BR/>-deacAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90915088085255709312009-03-19T00:26:00.000+00:002009-03-19T00:26:00.000+00:00MacroMan, can you explain how a similar exercise i...MacroMan, can you explain how a similar exercise in quantitative easing failed to incite another inflationary asset bubble in 1990's Japan? Logically it makes sense that a central bank should easily be successful if their goal is to create Monopoly Money to clean up the balance sheets of profligate banks and individuals and lend to new profiligate individuals. If, like me, you think that the credit mechanism creates monetary inflation and asset appreciation then why was it never able to create such inflation in Japan? Thx...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5661275290029154572009-03-19T00:19:00.000+00:002009-03-19T00:19:00.000+00:00mm how do you upload bloomberg charts to the blog...mm how do you upload bloomberg charts to the blog? and do you need their permissiom?Hot Gateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04557667138334956597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51792284850056173242009-03-18T23:23:00.000+00:002009-03-18T23:23:00.000+00:00I have a question I hope someone can shed some lig...I have a question I hope someone can shed some light on:<BR/> If every single variable, be it credit risk, growth, inflation, etc affected by this move, is impacted in a way that should send treasuries lower, how does the Fed bid overpower all of them? I'm surely overlooking something here but I would intuitively assume that every private holder of treasuries would now wish to sell at these prices, with the Fed the sole buyer. No?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9297324737776642392009-03-18T23:01:00.000+00:002009-03-18T23:01:00.000+00:00So the Fed is going to buy 300 billion dollars wor...So the Fed is going to buy 300 billion dollars worth of Treasuries? Tell me again what the net issuance of U.S. Treasury Bonds will be this year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45869714034225794032009-03-18T22:52:00.000+00:002009-03-18T22:52:00.000+00:00My mooted trades (some of which fortuitously I am ...My mooted trades (some of which fortuitously I am partially in, some not yet):<BR/> - buy 2/10 or even 2/5 steepening; the Fed wants low short rates and higher spreads for financials, not low long rates<BR/> - buy re-expansion of equity multiples, i.e., short defensive sectors, long everything else, net long; fade the prior some-earnings-at-any price market, in other words<BR/> - buy junior golds with lesser political and funding risk, but not in size and (as always with juniors) very selectively<BR/><BR/>My two cents. I need to sleep on it, but I think there are a few other plays I want as well.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40704972144594422462009-03-18T22:31:00.000+00:002009-03-18T22:31:00.000+00:00isn't now everyone get lined up in the same direct...isn't now everyone get lined up in the same direction, <BR/><BR/>my pref trades from here on would be 1) short equities/ esp tech, mat<BR/><BR/>2) short copper crude , scale up into rallies, shangai/ london arb over?, i would say crude inventories continue to remain high, and any quota comliance is NOT a factor of new found Opec unity, BUT a Lack of Demand, so one must look for less compliance to know that demand raelly has picked up.<BR/>3)short the eur/ $ ... cee risk is presents high risk, a drop in bunds/ euro yields will lead fall of the currency<BR/>4)long ger bunds 10 year... can ecb really stay behind?<BR/>5) long gold , 1000+<BR/><BR/>.....<BR/>would any one play this portfolio?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05130103581423748924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4527141613242708322009-03-18T22:16:00.000+00:002009-03-18T22:16:00.000+00:00and buy goldand buy goldUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12834448952938130833noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54564298882634947752009-03-18T21:21:00.000+00:002009-03-18T21:21:00.000+00:00What's the best way a non-trader (average joe) inv...What's the best way a non-trader (average joe) investor can go long oil and short the dollar?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73430534842714218362009-03-18T20:29:00.000+00:002009-03-18T20:29:00.000+00:00crude is the key for money velocity as well.crude is the key for money velocity as well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21919814962760216302009-03-18T20:10:00.000+00:002009-03-18T20:10:00.000+00:00I prefer oil to gold, simply because oil is more o...I prefer oil to gold, simply because oil is more off the radar, is a consumable resource, and is a higher beta play on reflation.<BR/><BR/>Today, at least, the market is focusing on gold, which I suppose is understandable. But I suspect when people think through the implications of today more carefully, they will conclude that oil will go up...a lot. <BR/><BR/>Gold is the better trade for a 15% move....oil is the better trade for a 150% move.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77998405565656707442009-03-18T20:06:00.000+00:002009-03-18T20:06:00.000+00:00I would think gold would be at top of list too, or...I would think gold would be at top of list too, or at least includedAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80329131481244438122009-03-18T20:04:00.000+00:002009-03-18T20:04:00.000+00:00do agree with you the equity should go higher. bas...do agree with you the equity should go higher. based on today's px action, it feels like a bear market rally. given the fed is all out, won't be surprised the treasury will follow right behind. and the sun/ibm deal could be real. the rally will last. but no more weapons left.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22122519564836706832009-03-18T19:52:00.000+00:002009-03-18T19:52:00.000+00:00Im amazed Eur should be 1.40Crude should be 60GC s...Im amazed <BR/>Eur should be 1.40<BR/>Crude should be 60<BR/>GC should be at new highs<BR/>SPX 850<BR/><BR/>simply, does the mkt know who they are messing w/?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18902525244202597612009-03-18T19:46:00.000+00:002009-03-18T19:46:00.000+00:00Here's a question: shouldn;t equities be doing be...Here's a question: shouldn;t equities be doing better than this?Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12896609939677500382009-03-18T19:33:00.000+00:002009-03-18T19:33:00.000+00:00See my comment at 7.06 re steepeners...I'm with ya...See my comment at 7.06 re steepeners...I'm with ya.<BR/><BR/>W/r/t gold, yeah everyone who got stopped is piling back in, which I understand. <BR/><BR/>I prefer oil because I like the chart and it's a consumable. N.B, I don't trade the front contract...despite negative carry, I prefer Dec 9 -Dec 12....Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64904704339466648492009-03-18T19:23:00.001+00:002009-03-18T19:23:00.001+00:00Ha, nice Swingers ref MM!Not sure about 1 & 3 ...Ha, nice Swingers ref MM!<BR/>Not sure about 1 & 3 though, tape watching at mom...<BR/>Despite your "barbarous relic" stance, shurely buy XAU follows from the rationale at 3. JLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76461790149468892652009-03-18T19:23:00.000+00:002009-03-18T19:23:00.000+00:001) how about 10yr. 30yr steepner2) one thing surpr...1) how about 10yr. 30yr steepner<BR/>2) one thing surprises me is commodity barely moved, any thoughts?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41326316287950820882009-03-18T19:22:00.000+00:002009-03-18T19:22:00.000+00:00buy TYM not USM - same thinking as BoE: very long ...buy TYM not USM - same thinking as BoE: very long end is for pension funds, short end is for CBs. They will buy in the middleAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com