tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1877320423201353052..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: TMM announce the late running of The End of The WorldMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15303966784379823842020-03-29T20:15:09.849+01:002020-03-29T20:15:09.849+01:00You've just mastered that!!! Game | gamesYou've just mastered that!!! <a href="https://gamesanookth.tumblr.com//" rel="nofollow">Game</a> | <a href="https://ecstasydata2.wixsite.com/website/" rel="nofollow">games</a>Godnesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06254624654611065060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17293487947716409412011-12-17T08:23:14.874+00:002011-12-17T08:23:14.874+00:00Last anon... interesting
First thanks for initial ...Last anon... interesting<br />First thanks for initial praise but sorry to have started to disappoint. Also I am sorry to have undermined your assumption in our perceived cleverness. Sounds we have left you in a humph over a nagging perceptual gripe we have, particularly with the bbc (the today/ PM programs being at its focus) . For you to be as correct as you briefly state, I am sure you have to be better connected than us so I would love to talk more on the issue off-line.. could u mail me on my address in contacts?<br /><br />Thanks<br />Pol..<br />Ps, we really aren't that clever.. you remember the Wizard of Oz?Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22771872627831446332011-12-17T01:11:47.632+00:002011-12-17T01:11:47.632+00:00But what TMM found exceptionally amusing was that ...But what TMM found exceptionally amusing was that the left-wing press in the UK (the BBC<br /><br />This blog is an intelligent and informative read but this comment is a] incorrect b] smacks of bitterness<br />it's not in the slightest left wing it's something that peter hitchens would say - from what i have read since you took over from MM you are cleverer than thatAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26905582973524460282011-12-13T21:17:36.570+00:002011-12-13T21:17:36.570+00:00I am really feeling my oats today after that surge...I am really feeling my oats today after that surge.<br /><br />Surely another commodity/energy stock massacre cannot be far away. Submerging markups will probably be flogged mercilessly, and miners too.<br /><br />After that is out of the way, then risk assets should have another high energy bounce.Bucky the Talking Currencynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54479494950919926152011-12-13T20:11:22.629+00:002011-12-13T20:11:22.629+00:00Concur,Santa seems to be delivering to the fx trad...Concur,Santa seems to be delivering to the fx traders.Amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4578406377531350472011-12-13T16:01:42.521+00:002011-12-13T16:01:42.521+00:00EURUSD breaks 1.31 on Mangler comments.
5 Minute ...EURUSD breaks 1.31 on Mangler comments.<br /><br />5 Minute Macro, innit?Saul Bolloxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83392437804130850022011-12-13T15:12:03.501+00:002011-12-13T15:12:03.501+00:00Concur with much of the above, except to point out...Concur with much of the above, except to point out that the deflationary bucket has a hole in it so it doesn't matter how much you piss in it, you can't generate much inflation. <br /><br />Questions remaining for 2011 (ahead of TMM's 2012 Non-Predictions), will we get the usual Santa Claus rally (Dec 26-Jan 3 in this case), or will we get a sneaky one in early after the Wizard?<br /><br />For my money, we are in a declining wedge, as more and more punters go home to wrap prezzies. We have half an eye on the dollar today, as a break out towards and beyond 80 would definitely be RISK OFF, even in these quiet markets. Triple top forming in DXY, and we don't generally believe in those..... that's a bullish chart.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82325838167077587102011-12-13T15:10:38.801+00:002011-12-13T15:10:38.801+00:00oh btw Latin American spreads arent going back to ...oh btw Latin American spreads arent going back to 750bps anytime soon. Facts change. <br /><br />stupid cheap markets are a thing of the past with the world printing moneyabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74698629451544259912011-12-13T14:58:08.709+00:002011-12-13T14:58:08.709+00:00wow great post and comments.
I'm kinda float...wow great post and comments. <br /><br />I'm kinda floating right now, like most equity markets, not really sure. Any momo to the downside in EUR (and gold) likely to scare some ppl. Add in a china, and risks still look high but fully dependent on a self feeding fear cycle. <br /><br />But I am with TMM, Euro death woes are already in the market and BANKS (the most important piece to the puzzle in my mind) are doing a bit better, with ECB help. <br /><br />For all the gloom and doom, Italy at 6.5% for 10 years is that really so bad. Sure against bund it is, but really just shows how addicted gov't are to low interest rates. <br /><br />I still worry about inflation more than anything else. If we do get another QE3, I think the flood gates may finally open (along with ECB, and Chinese stimulus)abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24453982731839946002011-12-13T13:24:51.235+00:002011-12-13T13:24:51.235+00:00Apocalyptic big picture thinking has it's plac...Apocalyptic big picture thinking has it's place, however: prices are set at the margin...the 3yr LTROs are a significant marginal development...that's it; no need to overcomplicate. ITA steepening suggests this innovation is getting traction.VandalsStoleMyHandlenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34135117521287477502011-12-13T12:56:41.741+00:002011-12-13T12:56:41.741+00:00Yes, lets see how EFSF issues 200bn of this stuff ...Yes, lets see how EFSF issues 200bn of this stuff and not for 3 months since it is going be lending for much longer maturities. Moreover, it's particularly strange to see Greece issue 6 month bills at 4.95%. This can only mean one thing - credit risk in the ECB system is accumulating massively through Greek and other banks buying this stuff and swapping. Given that Greece default is a complete inevitability at this point, I am not sure how this is good news.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72519527200198886032011-12-13T12:56:14.655+00:002011-12-13T12:56:14.655+00:00re: Eurozone carry trade courtesy of ECB.
Sadly t...re: Eurozone carry trade courtesy of ECB.<br /><br />Sadly the TMM ignored capital rules. Trading book under Basel 3 is punitive, thanks to SVAR and soon to applied to sovereigns IRC charge. Banking book will sit under Basel 2 where the risk charge increases from 20% to 50% and then to 100% when credit rating drops from A to BBB to BB under standard rules. Given where CDS , IRB charges are hard.<br /><br />Add EBA stress tests , leverage ratio caps etc and you will find that expanding Eurozone bank balance sheets to carry trade on ITL/SPA is not an option.Tradebotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34831908865649261342011-12-13T12:06:59.571+00:002011-12-13T12:06:59.571+00:00Did someone suggest the efsf couldn't fund its...Did someone suggest the efsf couldn't fund itself?<br /><br />This morning they issued nearly 2bln of 3mth bills at 0.2222% with 3.2x bid/ cover. Clearing a bp or so through France.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84577517194296712222011-12-13T11:59:39.317+00:002011-12-13T11:59:39.317+00:00Thank you for the calm analysis. It's good to ...Thank you for the calm analysis. It's good to see the "optimistic" side as well, when we guys like Krugman basically throwing in the towel.<br /><br />I'd like to believe you're right. However, the cure that is being consistently prescribed/applied is poison when the problem is mainly balance of payments. There's little sign of Germany backing away from this quackery. The whole austerity/discipline ideology is embedded deep within their collective psyche. Any attempt to suggest they're wrong is an attack against their very being. <br /><br />That's why if the Italians, Spanish can't just "muddle through", the Germans might not reconsider their policies. In their mind the failure would only strengthen their view of the Southern Europeans as undisciplined lot that needs beating "until morale improves."<br /><br />For all your dispassionate analysis, it seems to me that TMM argument boils down to this: <br /><br />They couldn't POSSIBLY be that stupid.<br /><br />And that is where I disagree.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42313011416832007432011-12-13T11:41:49.110+00:002011-12-13T11:41:49.110+00:00C says'
oh Anon you make it sound so straightf...C says'<br />oh Anon you make it sound so straightforward,but really you are naive.<br />The EU reminds me of the NHS and other public sector institutions.Instead of a clear hierarchy moving towards one goal with one purpose you have multi layers of chiefs talking acrioss each other more oft than not pushing theirown agenda and the end result is inefficiency through duplication,waste,and outright conflict of self interest.This is the EU and just as I don't see the NHS 'curing' itself neither do i see the EU progressing along the simplistic lines you envisage.<br />Rather they will tottre and stumble all over the pace shedding bits as they go as one group triumphs over another and others decide their interests are no longer achievable within the structure that exists.The outlier is that all of these myriad entities somehow manages to hold together with a common purpose over what is at least a medium term obstacle course with very serious difficulties.I'd like to believe in fairytale endings ,but in the real world they rarely occur.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80846306849827639662011-12-13T11:18:40.501+00:002011-12-13T11:18:40.501+00:00If the EU leaders/voters have to choose between
- ...If the EU leaders/voters have to choose between<br />- the Japan scenario:<br />Years of austerity, zero nominal GDP growth and an ever appreciating currency giving you modest real GDP growth<br />- the Argentina scenario: Shambolic defaults, capital flight by well-connected insiders, blocked deposits, pension fund raidings, price controls, capital controls and populism, followed by maybe a return to growth on the back of some convenient Deus Ex Machina (in the case of ARG, a commodities boom)<br /><br />I have little doubt what they will choose, whatever pundits from financial centers abroad are telling them what is best.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87885301692218410032011-12-13T08:56:39.845+00:002011-12-13T08:56:39.845+00:00C says'
ah doom is back.
Actually here is why...C says'<br />ah doom is back.<br /><br />Actually here is why I am not a bear just for a bit of balance.<br />Property.In the US and UK residential property has had the kind of back to back monthly activity this Autumn that indicates when primes season starts next Spring they will become and increasing economic activity with all that that implies.No boom ,just will go from being a drag to being a contributor.One more step in transtioning of banks as they get back to core lending for revenue.<br />Will increase mobility and confidence for joe public.Against that we still have the European drag but if this has transmitted into lower input costs on mats/comms both consumer and business will benefit. If growth pressure has weakened the Euro the ground should also be set for widespread action from most major central banks.I for one do not believe either the Fed of China will sit idly by and watch their growth be dragged down by Euro issues.They will act first and worry about the consequences later.<br />I also think by then we will have had downside earnings for Q1 and the pressures of Q1 debt rollover will ahve largely been felt.<br />I dothink that the first part of the year could be difficult ,but not to the extent of being uber bear and then we can move on into a market that is getting support from the usual bust to recovery issues with further monetary support.There is nothing predetermined that globally we have to go through some huge depression to emerge from this enviroment.That's nonsense for the doommongers to lap up.Policy direction will steer this ship and if you fight it it will be expensive.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68033293243557514882011-12-13T08:49:23.364+00:002011-12-13T08:49:23.364+00:00Oh and thanks for the informative post btw. I have...Oh and thanks for the informative post btw. I have learnt that it is perilous to ignore a turn call from TMM, especially when the commentariat pushback is negative. "Muddle along" has after all been the keyword of this crisis - it could be the new EU motto. Anyone have a Latin translation?Vasastannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10458760041982591652011-12-13T08:38:40.325+00:002011-12-13T08:38:40.325+00:00Re 2 dots on the i: Alt-0239, if you have a PC (or...Re 2 dots on the i: Alt-0239, if you have a PC (or Accessories/System Tools/Character Map). Nerd signing off.Vasastannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14584074761123965932011-12-12T22:34:23.744+00:002011-12-12T22:34:23.744+00:00Well I like naive (even if I'm buggered if I k...Well I like naive (even if I'm buggered if I know how to get 2 dots out of my pc).<br /><br />Thanks cpmppi. Agree with the opening sentiments and grateful for the dissemination. I'm picky about the stuff I absorb from elsewhere (and not because I'm looking to find approbation of my own disassembled thoughts) and I'm inclined to err on the side of TLROTEOFW too.<br /><br />Oh and à propos my pickiness - I like a man who reckons that when negotiating, if you’re never willing to walk away from the table, you don’t have any power.ntwscnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91524718684909178122011-12-12T22:14:28.013+00:002011-12-12T22:14:28.013+00:00It is not a stupid cheap market, that's true. ...It is not a stupid cheap market, that's true. We will all have to pick our spots in 2012 to make money. But there will be money to be made, and CBs will be a part of the picture, for sure. RO-RO markets are essentially a two-way bet on levels of liquidity, no more, no less.<br /><br />If TMM are right, and TEOTWAWKI fails to materialize, then we might even be able to get through this and hold a few divis.... <br /><br />BTW, we would under-estimate the effectiveness of CB liquidity fire hoses at our peril.... a few scars from 2009....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11286818301287792942011-12-12T21:36:36.692+00:002011-12-12T21:36:36.692+00:00The central banks can deal with liquidity issues, ...The central banks can deal with liquidity issues, they can act in synchronicity to goose the markets, they could print unlimited quantities of money if the situation demanded, but we can still retest the lows. Remember:<br />-central bank credibility has been on the decline since 2006. They didnt forsee the crisis, their stimulus effects have had little effect on the real economy, and enrichened wall street. Deflation never happened. The Fed are humstrung by republican hawks. The BoE have no credibility and risk (another) sterling crisis - they are most likely to print, but also the least relevent. The ECB, well, need i start?<br />-Every central bank intervention has had a smaller and smaller effect. Often I think "central banks" are just a lazy excuse by market practioners to explain what happened in the market, when really the underlying economics justified it.<br />-The ECB recent provision of liqudity is just that. They have provided nearly unlimited liquidity to all banks throughout the past two years, and their new programs are meerly an extension of this because the existing programs could no longer satiate the banks. The fundamental problems of distressed government bond markets and undercapitalised banks have not been fixed.<br />-I dont think central banks will be able to rescue this situation. Liquidity will not help valuations that much if profit margins collapse, and some currencies fracture. We are in for a maelstrom, and all I see is complacency and uninteresting valuations. IG credit in the US 125bps? 300bp last crisis. Latin america cds spreads 150bp? 750bps last crisis. Equity multiples in the US aint that cheap. Risk is only cheap in the places with the real problems. This isnt a stupid cheap market, and the risks are snowballing into an avalancheAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70203165999414651652011-12-12T20:46:49.330+00:002011-12-12T20:46:49.330+00:00Neel Kashkari, late of TARP fame and ex-Goldman Sa...Neel Kashkari, late of TARP fame and ex-Goldman Sachs, of course, was on American TV (CNBC) begging the ECB to monetize. He claimed the the Fed would back them up with "competitive devaluation".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70632923090239885062011-12-12T20:46:40.452+00:002011-12-12T20:46:40.452+00:00Doom call ! Doom call ! 666, the Sign of the Beast...Doom call ! Doom call ! 666, the Sign of the Beast....ah, yes, those were the days, down the back garden in the bomb shelter, hoarding tins of soup. TEOTWAWKI, indeed.<br /><br />Well, thanks for rounding out the MM opinion sphere. It's been a while since we had a retest call. But surely, squire, not possible at these low rates, eh? I mean, negative real rates. Surely 880, in the worst of all possible nightmarish 2012 scenarios?<br /><br />Seriously, notwithstanding the European slowdown and China deceleration scenarios (which I do believe are occurring), the central banks have learned much from 2008/9 about the value of HUGE liquidity injections and the power of synchronizing their efforts. There may well be a grim opening to 2012 that will surprise many, but eventually there will be bazookas.... believe me, there will be co-ordinated bazookas.<br /><br />Lots of comments today, so no turn yet, TMM...? Bernanke will threaten to pee dollars out of his helicopter tomorrow, and even that may not stop the free fall in the Euro. We will all be better off when we get down to 1.20, anyway.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39152612857427920042011-12-12T20:17:28.758+00:002011-12-12T20:17:28.758+00:00TMM's analysis is suprisingly niave and indica...TMM's analysis is suprisingly niave and indicative of much of what we see in the market - everyone thinks everyone is fearful but no one is afraid of the fear anymore. There are three problems here:<br />-The eurozone is facing the mother of all recessions<br />-China is slowing down rapidly and is highly likely to overshoot to the downside due to final end of the credit boom there<br />-Every country is fiscally constrained. The US, despite recent data, is still facing a recession and is likely to see fiscal cuts not stimulus, as will various other countries<br />-The lack of the ability to restimulate along with the burying of BRIC eurphoria will knock the markets to 09 lows especially<br /><br />2009 saw a mix of forced liquidations and a rapid inventory destocking/restocking cycle that people mistakenly thought was a structural shift in global demand but wasnt because governments maintained demand through stimulus/deficits. The structural shift is here and now. We are in the game changer, welcome to your doom. 2009 lows here we come.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com