tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1856562476009038932..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The elephant in the roomMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger44125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65300215310737171362019-05-20T17:17:36.703+01:002019-05-20T17:17:36.703+01:00iPhone
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6/19 9:35. Agr...Anon 6/17 11:35. Yes yes and yup. <br /><br />6/19 9:35. Agree. Who cares. Seriously. Only the Britons and I'm confident that they are sensible enough to make the right choice. Coreynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76741585756247928852016-06-19T20:49:01.772+01:002016-06-19T20:49:01.772+01:00Finally, to add, Leave is still a real risk until ...Finally, to add, Leave is still a real risk until the votes are cast. A terrorist event between now and then would swing things back. Appears to be the way the swing/polls/media are playing. Only 7 days ago we had Orlando. Jo Cox dominates media now. Unfortunately, this is what dominates discussion of EU membership.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19333561053865326152016-06-19T20:43:19.236+01:002016-06-19T20:43:19.236+01:00In terms of the 4-7am event risk RP, liquidity wil...In terms of the 4-7am event risk RP, liquidity will be likely be lighter than 10seconds before FOMC or NFP. No market maker will want much risk. Usually, there's the impression of liquidity in ZN or Emini during this period. Not this night. The fear of what happened to some, and what could have happened to others after SNB is too great.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83751336842586511902016-06-19T20:36:02.806+01:002016-06-19T20:36:02.806+01:00If you think about, Greece leaving EU and euro was...If you think about, Greece leaving EU and euro was seen as a big deal even though they were the weakest link. What message does it send if one of the stronger partners leave or have a strong Remain? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65502761300690596652016-06-19T20:33:46.875+01:002016-06-19T20:33:46.875+01:00Your other points of reference are the two prelude...Your other points of reference are the two preludes into Grexit finale where market got ahead of itself on a deal only for something to happen over weekend, Tsipras calling snap elections at 12pm central European time on Friday night. Fairly shook the markets the following Monday.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45834079106151927992016-06-19T20:31:17.800+01:002016-06-19T20:31:17.800+01:00Closest reference is the Greek deal last year wher...Closest reference is the Greek deal last year where markets had almost accepted there would be no deal into weekend. Deal, according to Peter Spiegel from FT was only struck at 6:30am the next Monday. Belgian PM leaked deal at about 7:20 on twitter causing a 100tick snap reversal in. EuroStoxx 50. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57215783782579640242016-06-19T18:53:43.932+01:002016-06-19T18:53:43.932+01:00Enough of the nonsense from anons, let's talk ...Enough of the nonsense from anons, let's talk planned event risk. The financial media is hyping this up to be bigger than Black Wednesday with gap-like CHF talk added to the mix ...which i don't think can be the case given the trickle of info and order flow over the night:<br /><br />No exit polls, just turnout. First few results should be out at midnight with a trickle in the first few hours, but nothing significant expected til 4am(ish) London time, listed markets aren't putting on any extraordinary hours so nothing there til 0700, so gaps on the open likely (price limits?-i think for equities only).<br /><br />What do we think this says about the character of any move?rpnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66844644591741178692016-06-19T11:09:04.511+01:002016-06-19T11:09:04.511+01:00The truth behind the EU:
http://www.dailymail.co....The truth behind the EU:<br /><br />http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3647600/We-told-EU-makes-stronger-haunting-dispatch-despairing-destitute-Greece-make-change-mind.html<br /><br />VOTE BREXIT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36548924233343986922016-06-19T10:45:07.556+01:002016-06-19T10:45:07.556+01:00http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-17/...http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-17/britain-s-elites-ignore-the-masses-at-their-peril<br /><br />Elites need to voted out asap.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73678847347292473992016-06-19T09:35:43.629+01:002016-06-19T09:35:43.629+01:00The UK referendum is being vastly over-hyped by fi...The UK referendum is being vastly over-hyped by financial markets. Looking back, it's going to be a non-event. Remember all the Greek crisis crap over the last few summers... we were all going to die in a financial mega-apocalypse... what happened? Nothing. Exactly. Don;t get me wrong I'd love to see the EU implode, we're just not going to be that lucky. Expect the same old central bank bs, with broken markets, for the next 30 years.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53807208379153077172016-06-18T23:49:09.235+01:002016-06-18T23:49:09.235+01:00nice post, thanks for sharing...nice post, thanks for sharing...jual kondomhttp://sediakondom.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6847985464509685512016-06-18T15:25:28.295+01:002016-06-18T15:25:28.295+01:00Anyone heard of credit lines freezing up ahead of ...Anyone heard of credit lines freezing up ahead of referendum? Was talking to the Finance Director of a large Multi-national in UK & Ire who intimated there was nothing out there ahead of the vote. Didn't know him well enough to dig deeper.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76306961924071551132016-06-18T13:43:03.152+01:002016-06-18T13:43:03.152+01:00BinT - thats the gargantuan flow that dwarfs all o...BinT - thats the gargantuan flow that dwarfs all others in the last few months no doubt - SWF's selling global equities while buying US treasuries - you would think this would increase treasury prices (check) and lower equities (yes, except US equities) - overall I think the backdrop of dollar shortage is very much intact but has been masked by an even greater demand for JPY. <br /><br />I am expecting dollar to weaken next few weeks post brexit relief, which should be a back up the truck moment - at some point the market will be fully tapped out on the 'sell the dollar because the fed won't raise' meme and realize the asymmetry from there works just one way.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81846858212773981652016-06-18T12:53:46.817+01:002016-06-18T12:53:46.817+01:00http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-15/...http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-15/china-dumping-more-than-treasuries-as-u-s-stocks-join-fire-sale<br /><br />Equity holdings fall $126 billion from July, U.S. data show<br />Drop of 38% compares with 9% reduction for all foreigners<br /><br /><br /><br />Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65955639584876053162016-06-18T10:45:47.393+01:002016-06-18T10:45:47.393+01:00MM - Do you mean those banks that failed and had t...MM - Do you mean those banks that failed and had to be bailed out by the taxpayer at HUGE public expense? Also the fact that most of the City focuses on international capital markets not just access to the EU. And finally the fact that the UK economy is too City focused, and needs to re-balance - so some short term pain to the UK, would in fact end up being long term gain. Anyway what are those banks going to do, relocate to France, Germany etc with the FTT destroying most of their profits? I don't think so...<br /><br />Do remember that the UK is one of the biggest financial contributors to the EU, if we leave, the EU suffers way more than us. Personally I think Brexit will force an implosion of the EU which can only be a good thing. No one wants a statist, undemocratic, incompetent ruling elite. I would have though Americans would understand that, clearly not...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-493784947152826532016-06-18T00:51:39.797+01:002016-06-18T00:51:39.797+01:00That oil complex call a week or so ago was spot on...That oil complex call a week or so ago was spot on.. So thanks whoever it was! This is why I read this blogFcpnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4595917383093118392016-06-18T00:04:32.407+01:002016-06-18T00:04:32.407+01:00http://finance.yahoo.com/news/it-s-time-for-the-fe...http://finance.yahoo.com/news/it-s-time-for-the-federal-reserve-to-fire-james-bullard-171554375.html<br /><br />I am rooting for this to become a popular movement. washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9603364110227944362016-06-17T23:18:43.401+01:002016-06-17T23:18:43.401+01:00Oh really? Perhaps you'd care to elucidate u...Oh really? Perhaps you'd care to elucidate us on how leaving the EU would impact, say, the City, in terms of profitability, ongoing access to EU markets, potential relocations/job losses and any concomitant knock-on effects to the broader economy. The world when the UK joined the EU looks nothing like the world today.<br /><br />Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13717745168933940482016-06-17T21:46:00.817+01:002016-06-17T21:46:00.817+01:00"...Brexit would represent a voyage into the ..."...Brexit would represent a voyage into the unknown..."<br /><br />It seems to me that Britain's long history apart from the European mainland and its satellites is largely a known quantity. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05554952241801239308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37257775372327371622016-06-17T20:00:30.499+01:002016-06-17T20:00:30.499+01:00I hate to take a position on this as I am in total...I hate to take a position on this as I am in total sympathy with MM's views. However, the powerful forces of options expiration were also at work yesterday to amplify any possible effect of the tragic event.<br /><br />Oil up 4% today, although US rig count was up for the third straight week. We will call that an indication of blatant pre-OpEx manipulation of a smaller market by persons unknown (leveraged longs and vol sellers) and we will fade that move.<br /><br />Adding to USO short and UUP long here, but playing smaller than last week after booking some decent profits. We are keeping an eye on EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY and CADUSD with intent to short all of these pairs again some time next week. For now we are going to hold off and wait for this little "risk on" bounce in USDJPY to be completed.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69707880452315564872016-06-17T18:47:24.040+01:002016-06-17T18:47:24.040+01:00One witness quoted by MSM denies hearing "Bri...One witness quoted by MSM denies hearing "Britain first" and another witness claiming to have heard it belongs to an organization which is having feuds with the anti-EU Britain First. In 2003 the pro-EU Swedish foreign minister was also murdered days before the Swedish euro referendum, yet they still managed to say no. Sometimes these events are just quite conveniently placed.<br /><br />http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/17/britain-first-eyewitness-bnp-member-list/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65080043809214516062016-06-17T18:34:12.859+01:002016-06-17T18:34:12.859+01:00Took a cautious punt after yesterday's post on...Took a cautious punt after yesterday's post on gold. The reversal pattern MM points out does give pause and argues for a tight stop, but ... I feel like I've been here before, with some binary event keeping me from taking a position and I miss the move I expected because it happens in the run up to the event. Could happen here again. Fast-money on Brexit via gold perhaps washed out of their positions yesterday. My reasoning for being long has nothing to do with Brexit and much to do with the Fed's more visible uncertainty/renewed bias to do nothing. A Remain vote should be dollar negative, so after the convulsions immediately following the vote, I'm not sure it would be that bad for gold anyway. That said, I'd probably be out of the position shortly before the vote, assuming I'm not stopped first.<br />johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79317645224384279732016-06-17T17:07:41.889+01:002016-06-17T17:07:41.889+01:00T & B
The personal is invariably the sign that...T & B<br />The personal is invariably the sign that there is no objective argument to be made. Well done in proving the concept.<br /><br />MM.,<br />I don't typically find myself in disagreement with you ,but in this case we are there. The latest polls don't show the fence sitters to be that large a group when measured against prior 'ballot box' events. Hence, my comment that I do not think the ripples at the ballot box will be significant. That is the same has me saying that it won't change the decisions of the 97% who were estimated to have already made up their mind on the issue.<br />A for being usual or unusual simply because the target is an MP ? I meant it within the context of how usual or unusual is it for say a soldier to be decapitated in the street by a machete waving individual ranting about religion, or how unusual is it for a group of gay people to be slaughtered by a deranged idiot who can't get his sexuality and religion straight in his head? In other words person(s) killed by people with history of being mentally unstable is not 'unusual' . If you think it is then please go talk to the relatives of the German flight that was flown into a mountain by one of the same. Appears to me we see this kind of event with some regularity and the only 'unusual' thing about this one is that someone decided they key motivation was political hate has opposed to the many other forms of hate we are used to seeing in the headlines. Personally, I question the logic of that. I'd be of the view the common denominator is mental illness and you can take your pick or throw darts at a board to select a trigger that transforms that to action.<br />Now that's all I have to say on this issue ,because lost amongst this has I said earlier is that for the person an family and friends involved the world hurts and will do for along time.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51279490330653208312016-06-17T17:00:15.436+01:002016-06-17T17:00:15.436+01:00Everyone here should go read Polemic's post:
...Everyone here should go read Polemic's post:<br /><br /><i>Jo Cox's murder should be completely dissociated from Brexit. From both sides. It's in the worst possible taste to raise it. But people just can’t help associating and blaming awful events on things they don’t approve of.</i><br /><br />http://polemics-pains.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/i-think-what-you-think-is.html<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com