tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1800698904868342112..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: A visit from Janet YellenMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger120125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5912473912095623352021-09-24T10:56:49.478+01:002021-09-24T10:56:49.478+01:00I think this article is useful to everyone.
เว็บบา...I think this article is useful to everyone.<br /><a href="http://ufabetsea.com/2021/09/24/%e0%b9%80%e0%b8%a7%e0%b9%87%e0%b8%9a%e0%b8%9a%e0%b8%b2%e0%b8%84%e0%b8%b2%e0%b8%a3%e0%b9%88%e0%b8%b2%e0%b8%97%e0%b8%b5%e0%b9%88%e0%b8%84%e0%b8%99%e0%b9%80%e0%b8%a5%e0%b9%88%e0%b8%99%e0%b9%80%e0%b8%a2/" rel="nofollow">เว็บบาคาร่าที่คนเล่นเยอะที่สุด</a><br /><a href="https://ufabetoyan.com/%e0%b8%aa%e0%b8%b9%e0%b8%95%e0%b8%a3%e0%b8%a2%e0%b8%b5%e0%b9%88%e0%b8%81%e0%b8%b5%e0%b8%a3%e0%b8%a7%e0%b8%a2-%e0%b9%80%e0%b8%a5%e0%b9%88%e0%b8%99%e0%b9%84%e0%b8%94%e0%b9%89%e0%b8%97%e0%b8%b8%e0%b8%81/" rel="nofollow">สูตรยี่กีรวย</a><br /><a href="https://listufabet.com/%e0%b8%aa%e0%b8%a5%e0%b9%87%e0%b8%ad%e0%b8%95%e0%b9%82%e0%b8%a3%e0%b8%a1%e0%b9%88%e0%b8%b2-%e0%b8%84%e0%b9%88%e0%b8%b2%e0%b8%a2%e0%b9%80%e0%b8%81%e0%b8%a1%e0%b8%94%e0%b8%b1%e0%b8%87-%e0%b8%97%e0%b8%b5/" rel="nofollow">สล็อตโรม่า</a>boyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00648952042340829627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30748822234146015782015-01-05T06:48:26.226+00:002015-01-05T06:48:26.226+00:00you'd have to ask Japanese ladies the average ...you'd have to ask Japanese ladies the average prowess of Japanese salary men. Sex is so bad over there no surprise they're getting rid of it, minus the occasional prostitution, the one that boosts luxury goods sharesNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30120885643724501782015-01-05T05:14:30.148+00:002015-01-05T05:14:30.148+00:00Death of hedge funds? Vanguard draws record flows ...Death of hedge funds? Vanguard draws record flows in 2014. Perhaps a peak in passive investing?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/vanguard-sets-record-funds-inflow-2015-01-05?link=MW_home_latest_news" rel="nofollow"> Vanguard Record Inflows </a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37936320490248053452015-01-05T04:31:42.140+00:002015-01-05T04:31:42.140+00:00This WAS SO GOOD!!This WAS SO GOOD!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55425469129476938272015-01-05T03:54:28.047+00:002015-01-05T03:54:28.047+00:00http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/...http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/10/22/japans-sexual-apathy-is-endangering-the-global-economy/<br /><br />Japan’s sexual apathy is endangering the global economy:<br /><br />"Extremely high numbers of Japanese do not find sex appealing. 45 percent of women and 25 percent of men, ages 16 to 24, are "not interested in or despised sexual contact."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73392887869825538722015-01-05T02:38:40.122+00:002015-01-05T02:38:40.122+00:00Stop running by Tokyo monkeys in EURUSD as thin ov...Stop running by Tokyo monkeys in EURUSD as thin overnight trading opens the trapdoor below 1,20 to a low of 1,1864. But is this mini-crash to 2006 levels the beginning of a short-term reversal? Not sure Dame Janet or even the Drag himself wants to see disorderly movements in this pair. Likewise, the fall in crude oil will not be a monotonous decline, with weather finally returning to the seasonal norm.<br /><br />Anon, your comment on equity yields was sadly completely incomprehensible, I have at least three ideas of what it is you were actually trying to say. Look, if the price of a stock doesn't change and it doesn't split etc., then you make the dividend paid, end of story. [We have a lot of preferred shares, so this is quite relevant to us]. If the price/yield of a bond doesn't change, you make the coupon. On this are many value investor comparisons based, in markets that aren't going up for ever...<br /><br />Btw, although we are modestly bearish US equities in Q1, we are long for a trade at the moment. OK, cue the ritual abuse for even mentioning the slim possibility of not seeing day after day of EGDF.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50087752108763107052015-01-05T02:38:00.575+00:002015-01-05T02:38:00.575+00:00LB ... thanks for your thoughts ... thoroughly enj...LB ... thanks for your thoughts ... thoroughly enjoyed reading and thinking about what you wrote! <br /><br />BTW, got Chinese A-shares in the momo-portfolio yet?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60773959544645647972015-01-04T21:47:32.816+00:002015-01-04T21:47:32.816+00:00Bruce - the irony is that the most famous of all g...Bruce - the irony is that the most famous of all government issued zero coupon perpetuals is bank notes. So it would only be going whole hog with money printing in finally turning QE into proper printed money .. or money on another name. A bit of a convoluted route but they could have just printed notes in the first place. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71233736596718251362015-01-04T19:38:11.972+00:002015-01-04T19:38:11.972+00:00leftback-as much as i respect your view points, th...leftback-as much as i respect your view points, the bit about eni yields compared to bps or dax vs bunds is just utter garbage<br />you are not comparing like for like...equites are not based on 1 year cash flows so just inverting pes downs equate to yields.<br />european equites aren't cheap at all here snce the rally from 2011 earnings haven't moved up at all-so europe might not be expensive but sure as hell not cheap<br />coming into new year i prefer to be short dax, spy , long 30y us<br />best<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65887808197760486362015-01-04T16:28:19.963+00:002015-01-04T16:28:19.963+00:00@Bruce - I actually think this is a logical next s...@Bruce - I actually think this is a logical next step once CBs realize there is a limit to asset inflation induced growth - Japan is actually the only country where this is currently socio-politically feasible, but eventually (in 5-7 years) if global equities end badly and there is no obvious technological savior to spur the next round of global growth, fully monetized fiscal expansion (i.e. a 'true' helicopter drop) will be the only recourse - ironically, I think it would be far more conducive to preventing wealth inequality (although probably just as ineffective at actually creating sustainable real growth via monetarism alone) than what we have seen in the last three decades.<br />It would be interesting to see the long term prospects for the JPY if this scenario came to pass.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1128052828964250512015-01-04T14:55:06.284+00:002015-01-04T14:55:06.284+00:00http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2015/01/02/...http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2015/01/02/japans-cash-helicopter-may-be-first-to-take-off/<br /><br />"Adair Turner, former chairman of Britain’s Financial Services Authority, has suggested converting the central bank’s government bonds into perpetual, zero-coupon securities. With one stroke of its pen, the government would be free of its obligation to repay the debt. The pressing need for Japan to raise taxes would vanish. The fragile consumer economy, which buckled under the burden of a modest increase in the sales tax last April, would breathe a sigh of relief. This too will be a money-financed tax cut by the back door, without the need for helicopters or debit cards."<br /><br />Hey, Lefty! Is this guy typical of British governmental financial thinking? I don't think he spent much time working this one out, do you?Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59676354201749343382015-01-03T21:06:12.239+00:002015-01-03T21:06:12.239+00:00(Part two, continued from above)
This isn't g...(Part two, continued from above)<br /><br />This isn't going to be a flood of funds flowing out, but even a trickle away from the US will be enough to stop much of the low volume momentum trade in its tracks. The US isn't going to crash but it will under-perform other countries like Germany, even if EURUSD doesn't bounce but just sits at 1,20 all year long. Grexit will not happen, safety trades will be lifted, and there will be another enormous squeeze in many risky EU asset classes (not govies this time), and the same will eventually be true in many of the emerging markets, irrespective of whatever the commodity boom/bust cycle happens to be doing.<br /><br />If you short Europe here, you are doing the same as punters did in the US after QE1 and heading into QE2, and I believe that you will reap the same rewards.... <br /><br />To close, I am not saying that Bucky's rollicking ride is over, but it will end, and sooner than most expect, b/c it is based on unsound assumptions. When that happens, you had better be prepared for some of the dismal consequences of a bit of Carry Unwind in USDJPY as well as the slow pain of being trapped a market that drips lower as the hot money ebbs away, and your profit slowly exsanguinates.<br /><br />So for the time being, we are going to continue to catch a few knives here and there in emerging markets and other train wrecks, while we mainly sit in long-dated US Treasuries, but begin to move into risk assets in Europe, buying on Grexit panic, Ukrainian saber rattling or whatever other political nonsense is out there. There are no bad assets, but we are moving towards bad prices in the US and good prices in the rest of the world.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23414699439182979632015-01-03T21:05:46.441+00:002015-01-03T21:05:46.441+00:00So it's been a while since we did this, but a ...So it's been a while since we did this, but a review of available yields can be quite instructive when punters are a little confused by a combination of recency bias, rising DOMESTIC asset prices, and competing central bank interventions. In fact they are absolutely intoxicated with the dollar, and all things American, oblivious to the faux growth and all of the buybacks and accounting tricks that generate the miracle of smoke and mirrors that is US EPS.<br /><br />The point I want to make here today is this: recently, everyone has been long America, US equities, high yield bonds, Treasuries, or good old USD. Fair enough, all those assets have risen in price, but only HY offers a yield better than the US10y, so this is purely a price appreciation bet. Of course, everyone is happy, and recency bias also allows this group of punters to know that they are "right" b/c "the trend is your friend", and this is what's working, and furthermore they even have sound reasons based on Draghi v Yellen, which make sense, and b/c everyone shares these views, it has become not an opinion, but a truth. <br /><br />No arguments... but this is the basis of all momo. USD is a pure momo trade, you must see this for what it is. Like all momo trades, when it stalls, you aren't making much money any more, and even small reversals can lose you money. If we have a flat but undulating year in SPX during '15, you will end up with 2% and endure a lot of volatility along the way. <br /><br />Now let's step off the US-centric bandwagon just for a second. Imagine you are a European or even Japanese long-only punter who has been having it off a bit in the US, perhaps reaching for yield in USTs to escape the low yields at home. OK, mission accomplished, but you know that hot money can move away quickly if things go sour.<br /><br />At the same time, your offshore asset management bloke or bird is having a gander at European equity yields, and can see a huge yield differential in Germany between bunds (0.50%) and the DAX (4.5% ish). In Spain, it's 10y ODEs at 1.52%, but equity yields are 6%ish, Santander about 9%. In London, it's gilts at 1.72%, BP and HSBC >4%. In Italy, BTPs at 1.73% or ENI at 8.9%. In France, OATs at 0.78% or TOT at 5.9%. Moving away from these core countries to Eastern Europe, there is all kinds of 6-10% yield to be had cheap in Austria, Hungary and even Russia. Outside Europe, there are the Australian banks (6%), and ooer missus, there is emerging market debt in dollars or local currency yielding 5-7%, and Russia and Brazil for those dumpster divers with Kevlar suits on. <br /><br />So at some point when the US flatlines, some of these punters are going to say, screw this low income crap sitting in US equities or in my domestic govies, I am having some. My local economy isn't actually in the shitter and unlike the US, I can actually believe some of the data and the earnings, so I am getting a handful of this risk in local equities or even some of this naughty stuff over here in these little countries, including those that everyone has been shorting the crap out of. <br /><br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49314500686953766402015-01-03T05:02:18.570+00:002015-01-03T05:02:18.570+00:00"if you are arguing for a brief cyclical down..."if you are arguing for a brief cyclical downtrend within a broad secular up move for the dollar,"<br /><br />Exactly. Although like most FX moves, when it comes along, it will be larger and of longer duration than we expect, possibly 1-2 quarters and a 50% retracement of the move in 2014.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76054029606410180102015-01-03T00:43:35.912+00:002015-01-03T00:43:35.912+00:00Or maybe they actually meant that Greece is not re...Or maybe they actually meant that Greece is not relevant for German banks....hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15581902659381663162015-01-03T00:37:05.525+00:002015-01-03T00:37:05.525+00:00Now what's this? An affiliate of the Mangler s...Now what's this? An affiliate of the Mangler say's Greece is no longer strategically important for the Zone and as such possesses a very diminished ability to issue blackmale. And elections are still over 2 years away, could he/they really mean it?<br /><br />http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/31/us-eurozone-greece-germany-idUSKBN0K90LM20141231<br /><br />Well if there is even a hint of truth in that, it will make some progress to vindicate the peanut gallery expectation of a volatile 2015.hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10357061618321902092015-01-03T00:22:23.389+00:002015-01-03T00:22:23.389+00:00@Washed(11:03)
x2!
You forgot to add this new pr...@Washed(11:03)<br /><br />x2!<br /><br />You forgot to add this new program the ruling the BJP has introduced,"return home(ghar wapsi"..converting minorities(Christians,Muslims,Sikhs)back to Hinduism!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34529127648450233142015-01-02T23:03:35.850+00:002015-01-02T23:03:35.850+00:00sure - maybe India will spot the immense windfall ...sure - maybe India will spot the immense windfall being presented to them via low commodity prices, move at warp speed to move the cows out of the street and double the no. of lanes, clean up their decrepit electricity infrastructure, appropriately jail 95% of their sitting politicians who are wanted for various crimes, quickly re-vamp their labor laws to enable giant shenzhen style export zones, all to finally favorably compete with China at selling cheap toys to western countries in an environment where global aggregate demand is about as energetic as a lung cancer patient on chemo.<br />I do think India will do fine in the long run because demographics and human capital always wins, but they'll have to find an internally funded, tech and consumption driven closed system economic model for success which is patently not the china, brazil, russia formula.<br />But yeah, I grew up there, so trust me you couldn't find a more complicated bundle of India cynicism and optimism than me!washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6091484060068162942015-01-02T22:11:10.020+00:002015-01-02T22:11:10.020+00:00@washedup, "but if anyone is looking for the ...@washedup, "but if anyone is looking for the EM industrialization leads to high commodity prices leads to reflation leads to dollars going abroad leads to weaker dollar story as the reigning paradigm for the coming decade, I have a unicorn petting zoo you are cordially invited to."<br /><br />I would not count India out, whose infrastructure is probably even worse than China in 2000. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83768266941715389782015-01-02T21:07:27.301+00:002015-01-02T21:07:27.301+00:00Anon 3:31, re: Japan
wouldn't be surprised i...Anon 3:31, re: Japan <br /><br />wouldn't be surprised if that ultimately happens. First kill the debt markets and turn them into complete zombies, and when that doesn't work, sink the unwilling end users directly with new currency. Although in the case of Japan it would probably do what it did before, spill into financial assets all across the world. Might work quite a bit better in EZ.<br /><br />We might be a long way off, but the signs for the end game are slowly and steadily becoming more apparent atleast IMHO.hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70252193134141595662015-01-02T20:57:18.315+00:002015-01-02T20:57:18.315+00:00you gotta love how Draghi had to say 'somethin...you gotta love how Draghi had to say 'something' for the first day of 2015 trading - really felt like comforting parents walking their toddlers to the first day at school<br /><br />only, the kids were already crying their milk out after an hour or two. CBs pampering of markets reached kindergarten psychology todayNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25685057884703354872015-01-02T19:46:33.380+00:002015-01-02T19:46:33.380+00:00if you are arguing for a brief cyclical downtrend ...if you are arguing for a brief cyclical downtrend within a broad secular up move for the dollar, I can see that anytime - it would be completely moronic to assume anything can just go up in a straight line (ironically, its the China cheerleaders, not dollar bulls, who have suffered that malady for a longer period) - but if anyone is looking for the EM industrialization leads to high commodity prices leads to reflation leads to dollars going abroad leads to weaker dollar story as the reigning paradigm for the coming decade, I have a unicorn petting zoo you are cordially invited to.<br />Sure, at some point Janet may thrown in the towel and re-engage in QE - and then gold (notably not EUR or JPY or anything EMish) may be the principal beneficiary, but I'd give it atleast 6-9 months before its worth even sniffing that bone out. <br />washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52450508911427433902015-01-02T19:05:03.114+00:002015-01-02T19:05:03.114+00:00@washed:
1) there is no shortage of Treasuries a...@washed: <br /><br />1) there is no shortage of Treasuries and cash on board ship here, so no worries there, we'll survive.<br /><br />2) there is an astonishing correlation between the US centricity of US-based investors and the US equity markets and USD. While I can see that this is to some extent predictable and even logical, it means that punters are always buying USD near the top when they should be looking out at opportunities elsewhere.<br /><br />3) the fear and loathing within the US of the EU, the €, the ECB and the dreaded "socialist economies" of Europe is really beyond irrational and not data-dependent at this point.<br /><br />4) the 2008 analogies bandied around are absurd, when credit is easy almost worldwide and there is ample liquidity in the credit markets. this is the fatal flaw in the sky falling arguments this time.<br /><br />5) what goes around, comes around. once markets see clearly that Europe has already accelerated from oblivion to blah, while the US never really did get ahead of blah after all, FX regime change will be swift and bloody.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17427391863883953692015-01-02T18:58:24.476+00:002015-01-02T18:58:24.476+00:00"trend" is measured at the margin."trend" is measured at the margin.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71912783668833332772015-01-02T17:43:35.207+00:002015-01-02T17:43:35.207+00:00C Says,
LB,
The US doesn't need to be punching...C Says,<br />LB,<br />The US doesn't need to be punching out great macro data every week to support the dollar. It just needs to look better than the wall to wall crap elsewhere. If the latter ever looks like changing that relationship then some of us dollar lovers would be happy to join your side of the fence. Meanwhile a trend is a trend until it isn't.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com