tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1718429823862102346..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Harry and TomMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51043774997618441872009-04-21T09:33:00.000+01:002009-04-21T09:33:00.000+01:00Is it as simple as: S+P up circa 8% in March, HF&#...Is it as simple as: S+P up circa 8% in March, HF's up 2%. A rally hurts people more than a collapse ?<br />M&A activity resurging too. Maybe we are too aligned to financial markets to see the broader picture. Or is everyone else too complacent ? Methinks the former.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86538665932944710702009-04-19T02:46:00.000+01:002009-04-19T02:46:00.000+01:00MM - For those who responded to both polls, are yo...MM - For those who responded to both polls, are you able to do a scatter plot of forecast by current position? It would be interesting to see whether the forecast reflects purely short term conviction versus intermediate term conviction. Obviously, the results would be skewed by the opinions of short term traders versus intermediate and longer term traders, and their current level of holdings. Perhaps a further poll to understand your readerships' trading style?<br /><br />AussieDaveAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26489859832949441092009-04-18T08:41:00.000+01:002009-04-18T08:41:00.000+01:00Bought 80 spy jun 30 puts yesterday and a nible at...Bought 80 spy jun 30 puts yesterday and a nible at the 85 spy jun 30 puts today, both at 3:50pm EST. Took off about a third profit from the bull run and covered about two thirds of the portfolio on the downside. Now that JPM and GS and C reported, not so much motivation for the run. Since I believe in conspiracies, GS pushed the tape to get out of TARP?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65618586157509948772009-04-18T01:11:00.000+01:002009-04-18T01:11:00.000+01:00the market must still be bullish. Not much of a s...the market must still be bullish. Not much of a selloff today at the close. Until the big money cashes out, and returns the TARP money we will continue to go up.<br /><br />The copper prices are ridiculous. Buying copper at the collusion of central banks and to keep their workers busy. Just happens to be one of the "telltale" signs of our miraculous recovery. yeehaw!!! The planning is impeccable. I guess they'll be using physical labor to process that copper since oil hasn't done crap in comparison.<br /><br />http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40791257528<br /><br />What a freaking joke. The markets I mean. Well, I mean to say the jokes on us.<br /><br />Who cares WTF the markets going to do. Just play the tape. Why spend countless hours second guessing your master.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16555836709034699542009-04-18T00:32:00.000+01:002009-04-18T00:32:00.000+01:00haha...I'd recognize that eur.usd chart anywhere, ...haha...I'd recognize that eur.usd chart anywhere, even if i were blind. <br /><br />Yeah, so the dealers gamed the system with the Tarp moneys. Created excessive fear and panic last year to get what they wanted. And who was waiting for that market barreling down the cliff this March...gee... I'd bet the same guys who got the Tarp money.<br /><br />the guys that run this country, and the world for that matter, run their operations from confusion, chaos and complexity.<br /><br />I wish all the big dealers would go tits up, but we all know that will NEVER happen. It might happen if we could get most people to remove their accounts from them and use more local or regional banks.<br /><br />Nothing would give me more satisfaction than to step on these guys like a smoldering cigarette.<br /><br />LOL...nothing personal ya know.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18526387888590236912009-04-17T22:10:00.000+01:002009-04-17T22:10:00.000+01:00From my seat I really see a smattering of bulls an...From my seat I really see a smattering of bulls and bears. Some of the economists who have been beared up (D Rosenberg, A Sinai) have moderated at least a bit, and a few technicians I like have been pretty constructive. I started trading from the short side early this month, partly because it fits my book and partly because I think the consumer will keep us on our backs. But one look at a weekly S&P chart and it's clear we could rally easily 15% from here and still stay within the context of a bear market.Stevenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17462737868940266352009-04-17T19:34:00.000+01:002009-04-17T19:34:00.000+01:001) No view
2) The chart, if you turn it upside do...1) No view<br /><br />2) The chart, if you turn it upside down. Seriously, vol everywhere across all products is getting killed; a sign of complacency, perhaps?<br /><br />3) I think China explains most of it, though I am far from an expert. But my understanding is that they've been buying like it's going out of style. Depending on your worldview, this is because a) the stimulus has ramped up activity, and thus the need for copper, b) they are stockpiling commodities rather than Treasuries as a strategic choice, or c) money has been allocated to buy copper, and it has got to be spent, whether it is needed or not.<br /><br />Apparently, however, Shanghai inventories rose this week for the first time in a while, so perhaps this sucker has run its course for now.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2537219009089804602009-04-17T19:09:00.000+01:002009-04-17T19:09:00.000+01:00few trades would like to get your opion on:
1) buy...few trades would like to get your opion on:<br />1) buy protection of sr. bank debt on BAC, and sell protection on WFC<br />2) what's up with VIX? <br />3) copper is on the run, close to 2.2 now, any thoughts? what's driving this besides of rumor chinese are buying?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56760833343568292162009-04-17T18:30:00.000+01:002009-04-17T18:30:00.000+01:00wcw, I think I was bearish the homeys in good time...wcw, I think I was bearish the homeys in good time. But you are right....I didn't accept the bearish story on the economy and the broader market until later- early last year.<br /><br />triozyg, not that I know of. But the masking of the underlying by applying g some random numerical filter is in line with the proposition from the Tom, Dick, and Harry post from earlier this week.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5905904885198594832009-04-17T17:11:00.000+01:002009-04-17T17:11:00.000+01:00MM,
Been enjoying your blog for a while -- so, yo...MM,<br /><br />Been enjoying your blog for a while -- so, young!<br /><br />Is that a normal thing for analysts to multiply prices by some amount to make them more readable -- or is it just for fun?triozygnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79003300045720704842009-04-17T16:15:00.000+01:002009-04-17T16:15:00.000+01:00Worth noting, MM is not structurally bearish. I r...Worth noting, MM is not structurally bearish. I remember being one of the crowd that lectured him, here and in Ritholtz's comments threads, about the utter bankruptcy of the homebuilders, way back when they were still worth shorting.<br /><br />Like MM, I have a pretty bearish view of future equity fundamentals, but am ready to ride select equities up as far as the market will bid them. Bear-market rallies are *fabulous* things.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60316899082424508442009-04-17T14:02:00.000+01:002009-04-17T14:02:00.000+01:00***besides your highly anectdotal pole, I suggest ...***besides your highly anectdotal pole, I suggest sentimentrader.com<br />***<br /><br />the big question becomes is everyone who read this ahead of the crowd or the crowd.....obviously I dunno the answer.<br /><br />Personally I'm very bearish but then I think back to Spring 2003 and am ready to ride this dog all the way back up to 1200, lol.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8955399069195349342009-04-17T13:48:00.000+01:002009-04-17T13:48:00.000+01:00I bought some put spreads earlier today (albeit in...I bought some put spreads earlier today (albeit in small size)....so for the time being I'm calling you smart!Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55045105637810854462009-04-17T13:30:00.000+01:002009-04-17T13:30:00.000+01:00So if we (the readers) are so intelligent, are you...So if we (the readers) are so intelligent, are you using us as a contrary indicator or an indication of what the 'smart money' is doing?CDN Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11183653753709444967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67468317229578598412009-04-17T12:43:00.000+01:002009-04-17T12:43:00.000+01:00T bill yields at nowt suggest that somebody is sca...T bill yields at nowt suggest that <I>somebody</I> is scared.<br /><br />John, I'd like to think that the readership of this space is intelligent enough to think for themselves. I know a number of them personally, and many of those disagree with me in terms of trading views.<br /><br />I hope that the reason people visit here is for honest analysis that willadmit when it is wrong (or at least faring poorly), which is a surprisingly rare commodity. Well, that and the jokes.<br /><br />In any event, they more or less nailed the <A HREF="http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2008/07/and-winner-is.html" REL="nofollow">banking dead pool </A> last summer.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63155686391580938612009-04-17T12:10:00.000+01:002009-04-17T12:10:00.000+01:00Since you tend to have a bearish view don't you th...Since you tend to have a bearish view don't you think that will attract readers of the same mindset, thereby causing your polls to have a predetermined bias?Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40092536042727386772009-04-17T12:03:00.000+01:002009-04-17T12:03:00.000+01:00What to make of USGG1M back at zero?What to make of USGG1M back at zero?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29905373861821677012009-04-17T11:42:00.000+01:002009-04-17T11:42:00.000+01:00Charts apart, one would have thought that for a su...Charts apart, one would have thought that for a sustainable equity rally to get under way we should all be singing from the same hymn book. Clearly, we are not. Stiglitz gives a stinging criticism of the Obama bank- rescue efforts. They will probably fail, he says, because the programs have been designed to help Wall Street rather than create a viable financial system:<br />the people who designed the plans are “either in the pocket of the banks or they’re incompetent.” Buiter and so many others in the blogosphere echo this. With such a pervasive lack of credibility out there how can equities gain traction?Donlasthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14400745649069349297noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18826489100219955442009-04-17T11:35:00.000+01:002009-04-17T11:35:00.000+01:00besides your highly anectdotal pole, I suggest sen...besides your highly anectdotal pole, I suggest sentimentrader.com<br /><br />Lots of bullishness now on much broader indicators; Options, ISEE, AAII, Big ramp in Inv Intel, VIX complacency, the Macroman indicator...<br /><br />Cheerstvnoreply@blogger.com