tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post16981741073273623..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: A slippery slopeMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65882081278266355842008-07-15T10:51:00.000+01:002008-07-15T10:51:00.000+01:00Bravo, spagetti...it's always nice to see another ...Bravo, spagetti...it's always nice to see another financial poet out there (though your choice of song could perhaps have been improved;))Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69781118989038475402008-07-15T09:37:00.000+01:002008-07-15T09:37:00.000+01:00Seasons in the SunGoodbye to you, my trusted frien...Seasons in the Sun<BR/><BR/>Goodbye to you, my trusted friends <BR/>We've know each other many lifespans <BR/>Together we've climbed hills and trees, learned of Gold and FRB, skinned our hearts and skinned our knees <BR/><BR/>Goodbye my traders, it's hard to die <BR/>When credit spreads are trading in the sky <BR/>Now that Oil is in the air <BR/>Bank stocks are everywhere, think of me and I'll be there <BR/><BR/>We had joy, we had fun <BR/>We had seasons in the sun <BR/>But the twin deficit that we climbed <BR/>Were just seasons out of time <BR/><BR/>Goodbye Paulson, please pray for me <BR/>I was the black sheep of the G3<BR/>You tried to teach me right from wrong <BR/>Too much wine and too much song, wonder how I got along <BR/><BR/>Goodbye Paulson, it's hard to die <BR/>When the Euro's trading in the sky <BR/>Now that spring is in the air <BR/>Little Ben is everywhere, when you see them I'll be there <BR/><BR/>We had joy, we had fun <BR/>We had seasons in the sun <BR/>But the wine and the song <BR/>like the seasons have all gone <BR/>(twice) <BR/><BR/>Goodbye Gulf peg, my little one <BR/>You gave me love and helped me find the sun <BR/>Every time that I was down <BR/>You would always come around and get my feet back on the ground <BR/><BR/>Goodbye Gulf peg it's hard to die <BR/>When all the oil's trading in the sky <BR/>Now that Israel is in the air <BR/>With their F-16's everywhere <BR/>I wish that we could both be therespagettihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12141785799734886089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60648089566975853562008-07-14T20:53:00.000+01:002008-07-14T20:53:00.000+01:00Ryan, yeah I know. Sadly, after the red eye episo...Ryan, yeah I know. Sadly, after the red eye episode, I resolved to concentrate my short-end risk in options rather than the outrights- and there's no real FF options market.<BR/><BR/>Fortunately, I've been able to engineer that rarest of macro sightings this year- a profitable short sterling book (knock on wood), in a trade that offered a better risk/reward than anything I could find in the US.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77871682816976590862008-07-14T20:31:00.000+01:002008-07-14T20:31:00.000+01:00MM, a little off topic for this particular post bu...MM, a little off topic for this particular post but it was only a month ago you posted your Red Eye post. <BR/><BR/>FFZ8 trading at 97.79. So much for 3 rate hikes by the end of the year...Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00667133669765999095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16668234293798750422008-07-14T18:58:00.000+01:002008-07-14T18:58:00.000+01:00MacroMan, having been on the other side of unfound...MacroMan, having been on the other side of unfounded rumors, I can tell you that they are a significant factor in business. It's true that sound companies will probably survive false rumors. However, for small companies, especially those that are raising capital, rumors can be very damaging. <BR/><BR/>In some cases, false rumors are circulated purely to damage a business. Ask P&G about rumors circulated regarding their Stars and Moon. They lost many, many millions of dollars of business. <BR/><BR/>Finally, the booming-and-busting of stocks that was prevalent in the 1920s was possible because the big players were organized and controlled the circulation of rumors. With the profitability of shorting nowadays, one can imagine the emergence of organized networks to accomplish the same thing. <BR/><BR/>I don't like the idea of prosecuting people for what they say, even if it is defamatory. However, if individuals can suffer loss of reputation and income from defamation, so can corporations. <BR/><BR/>--Charles of MercuryRising<BR/>www.phoenixwoman.wordpress.comAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70130379547046447262008-07-14T15:31:00.000+01:002008-07-14T15:31:00.000+01:00Maybe this investigation thing is just a rumour st...Maybe this investigation thing is just a rumour started by the fed......<BR/><BR/>Oh blimey - my head's spinnning now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72409317714738550612008-07-14T15:26:00.000+01:002008-07-14T15:26:00.000+01:00I look at the US as a short across the board, admi...I look at the US as a short across the board, admission that the US is nothing more then a Banana Republic. Hank and Benny have set themselves up for a run by a big shark, the timeframe is the only question.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87672449865589240732008-07-14T15:10:00.000+01:002008-07-14T15:10:00.000+01:00we might still get that squeeze later on.but for n...we might still get that squeeze later on.<BR/>but for now the odds slightly against a bounce - thats my feelingspagettihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12141785799734886089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75577712230378040572008-07-14T15:03:00.000+01:002008-07-14T15:03:00.000+01:00Well, I have to say that I am a touch surprised by...Well, I have to say that I am a touch surprised by this price action. It's all gone a bit pear-shaped. Perhaps the market's in Rod Tidwell mode....i.e. screaming at Hank "show me the money!"Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13417842039959288812008-07-14T14:24:00.000+01:002008-07-14T14:24:00.000+01:00im still short equities but not married to it.. ma...im still short equities but not married to it.. maybe i'll close it today.<BR/><BR/>do you guys remember when it was put to the forum here whether the old 'sell in May, go away' adage will be valid in 2008 or not..<BR/><BR/>unimportant now, but it proved to be perfectly rightspagettihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12141785799734886089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-355992964453427722008-07-14T14:04:00.000+01:002008-07-14T14:04:00.000+01:00little overkill on the market thought police, but ...little overkill on the market thought police, but valid points.<BR/><BR/>i wonder how/when/where the treasury will be reporting their equity ownership position in FRE/FNM. certainly must put fear into the shorts to now be trading against Hank Paulson...prophetshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16688051502761732148noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68830561289804621232008-07-14T13:34:00.000+01:002008-07-14T13:34:00.000+01:00think the orwellian cops are going to have to keep...think the orwellian cops are going to have to keep a very close eye on the rates boys who have come under the gun for not calling out problems--maybe some young wippershapper wanting to make a name for themselves puts the US govt up for reivew for possible downgrade--openended committment may make sense at one level but its a heck of a lot of exposure to the housing market--so goes the housing market so goes the US govt debt--thank uncle same its in usd and not borrowed in a foreign currency so the US can depreciate its way out of this--on a pure side note personal opinion is us govt should wind up fre and fnm (over time of courrse) or take an offical role in greising the credit markets--the current role means all risk born by tax payers and profits by shareholders is just another case of seperating risk from reward which never ends wellAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6986100753066727462008-07-14T12:46:00.000+01:002008-07-14T12:46:00.000+01:00Perhaps the Alliance and Leicester board receive...Perhaps the Alliance and Leicester board received a letter going something like <BR/><BR/> " My uncle, a General in Nigeria, would like your help in moving his lottery win out of the country . Please send your bank account details and he will pay 317p per share for your company. Yours muchness in advance. Hanku Paulso " <BR/><BR/>And disclosure rules have forced them to go public on the offer. <BR/><BR/>Can't see any other reason for it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27619907267513907102008-07-14T12:18:00.000+01:002008-07-14T12:18:00.000+01:00after a long weekend searching and studying and pl...after a long weekend searching and studying and plotting, i've exited long-yen (which will be revisited in a month or two) and now have a bias toward long-equities / short commodities theme...near term.<BR/><BR/>besides the us govt buying into the GSEs, there are rumors the SPR is being tapped and the vaults at fort knox are being emptied. (full disclosure - i didn't start that rumor from what i heard).<BR/><BR/>my bias now is simply based on 1) the yen has failed to perform, 2) i can't find a NEW argument for stocks to get nailed, and 3) that somehow a never experienced Malthusian breakpoint is occurring worldwide.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54980330806717604732008-07-14T12:12:00.000+01:002008-07-14T12:12:00.000+01:00Why do we not see this quality of comment in the f...Why do we not see this quality of comment in the financial pages, WSJ et al. After all, for all the disinformation Benpau are clearly trying to cover an almighty great hole with brushwood and the truth will out in the end. There must be many young writers and journalists who are going to make their reputations chronically this period. No short-term market impact maybe but perspectives on banks, brokers, the US financial and economic establishment and "diff equation" economists, is shifting and will shift in a fundamental fashion. Rogues - or fools - you takes your choice. No middle way. " Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold".Donlasthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14400745649069349297noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27298511909120636912008-07-14T11:45:00.000+01:002008-07-14T11:45:00.000+01:00Macro Man has summed it up correctly. What about t...Macro Man has summed it up correctly. What about the folks who made a lot of money managing F/F? And how does Benny/Hanky explain why investors who earned a premium taking risk in agencies now get rewarded?<BR/><BR/>Taxpayers are getting bernanked. In life, it is always better to be an "or" rather than an "ee". In short, those who are bernankors are going to prosper while those who are bernankees will be the losers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79044074711294370312008-07-14T11:14:00.000+01:002008-07-14T11:14:00.000+01:00More from big bro:http://nakedshorts.typepad.com/n...More from big bro:<BR/>http://nakedshorts.typepad.com/nakedshorts/<BR/>2008/07/fsa-seeks-market-rumors-data.html<BR/><BR/>Freddie's Back!<BR/>Cheers,<BR/>JLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com