tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1624717451164978125..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Something for everyoneMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86134487125202165392015-02-27T10:59:42.445+00:002015-02-27T10:59:42.445+00:00FM has closed all remaining equity long posns (Nik...FM has closed all remaining equity long posns (Nikkei, Dax, Fesx). I'll bid you all a good w/e & leave you in peace for a while.FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57997892534986417922015-02-27T08:50:01.577+00:002015-02-27T08:50:01.577+00:00Closed remaining fx posn. Breakdown (using blog ti...Closed remaining fx posn. Breakdown (using blog timestamps):<br />USDJPY: +25pips as I type. <br />USDCAD: 0pips (stopped out yesterday afternoon).<br />EURUSD: +50pips as I type.<br />The gains were actually higher, but for the purposes of this blog we'll leave it there. <br /><br />Also I think a couple of posters make the valid implication that this isn't the best place to record these shorter duration trades.FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44150858377670545462015-02-26T19:13:12.813+00:002015-02-26T19:13:12.813+00:00Latest from Steen...
QoQ growth in the US will hit...Latest from Steen...<br />QoQ growth in the US will hit zero by Q3 or Q4<br />Europe will show one more month of improving data, then the global slowdown and EM and US will drag down the data to flat performance <br />10-year fixed income will trade 1.5% even potentially 1.0% this year<br />The US dollar will peak this quarter and will probably have peaked for this cycle.<br />We are in a “in-between period” - where the US will slow down and ultimately hand over the growth engine to emerging markets by the earliest in Q4-2015 but firmly in 2016. <br /><br />https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/macro-digest-up-close-and-nasty-us-slowdown-looms-3785254Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48282143066633608822015-02-26T17:48:55.550+00:002015-02-26T17:48:55.550+00:00@Anon - Thx. I largely agree with your forward-loo...@Anon - Thx. I largely agree with your forward-looking views and DM equities look a little stretched here short-term. Saying that, I still think EU equities may have some way to go. Hard to put a target on it though (& I'm rubbish at targets :).FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73250176978188846582015-02-26T17:05:05.344+00:002015-02-26T17:05:05.344+00:00@Left "What was the trigger for the DX spike ...@Left "What was the trigger for the DX spike today? It began before the US macro releases, and after fairly strong data out of Germany. Not really sure what FX traders are smoking at this point."<br />The Bullard statement where he said a strong dollar is fine, rates should be hiked in June, and the fed wouldn't change anything based on currency strength - also some realization that Mr Market was a bit over-enthusiastic interpreting Yellen's speech dovishly. washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56077453964910155262015-02-26T16:41:57.590+00:002015-02-26T16:41:57.590+00:00NBI / US-biotech has been on an incredible run and...NBI / US-biotech has been on an incredible run and continues to be a leadership sector. Valuations in the sector are high, based on optimistic pipeline approval and adoption rates, and a persistent belief that big pharma have no choice but to engage in M&A to keep their revenues going. It's not a bad thesis, but the question becomes <i>is there a price where big pharma says no, or would prefer to grow via buybacks</i>. We are getting an interesting test of this right now with PCYC - basically a one drug company, with expectations that JNJ will take them out for as much as $275/share. At that price its roughly 30x sales, and 5x optimistic peak sales pending multiple additional approvals. Thats a roughly $20bil takeover, or roughly 1 full year of OCF for JNJ - nothing to sneeze at. The buyback route is (according to my assumption-full spreadsheet) roughly 3x more accretive to earnings. If JNJ does the deal it will validate a lot of the valuations and thesis behind them. If it does not happen the sector looks vulnerable. I'm putting a toe into the water here with a modest IBB short. <br />Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78020285688353358582015-02-26T16:41:49.650+00:002015-02-26T16:41:49.650+00:00@FM,
Credit where credit's due. That was a go...@FM,<br /><br />Credit where credit's due. That was a good bet on EUR.<br /><br />Now fast forward to next week, with ECB's liquidity flood, it seemed that on this forum all/most people agree that the order of ROI from high to low would be EU equity, EM bond, US equity, US bond. <br /><br />I assume that most smart money had already done just that. DAX already is at new high. And how far will it go from now? <br /><br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19550621319373477272015-02-26T16:23:39.495+00:002015-02-26T16:23:39.495+00:00@Cityhunter: Good job, hope it works out :)
@LB: T...@Cityhunter: Good job, hope it works out :)<br />@LB: Thx. I fully agree that this is a lucky streak, it certainly ain't always so.<br />re: the DX spike I'm honestly not sure. I've been watching the sideways FX action this past week or so, wondering if this was vol compression, & was basically just awaiting a breakout.FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57094181988807836862015-02-26T16:20:45.304+00:002015-02-26T16:20:45.304+00:00Btw, most EM bond ETFs (EMB, VWOB, EMLC) are up 3-...Btw, most EM bond ETFs (EMB, VWOB, EMLC) are up 3-5% from their mid-December lows, so we did get that right, and it should get better when Bucky finally overdoses on Rate Hike Heroin, is dumped by Dame Janet, moves into a crack (spread) house, where he catches a virulent strain of Asian Reflation Virus and eventually chokes on his own vomit.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1363175954967446722015-02-26T16:13:29.182+00:002015-02-26T16:13:29.182+00:00@Pol - re: forward looking, fully agree, but to be...@Pol - re: forward looking, fully agree, but to be fair that was a fast fx move.<br />@washedup - comment aimed at me? If so, then even when I first posted, EURUSD spot was @ 1.1260. At my 2nd post it was over 50 pips lower. <br /><br />I'm not asking anyone to believe me, just sharing how I see things. <br /><br />FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33704182517155318282015-02-26T16:09:40.180+00:002015-02-26T16:09:40.180+00:00"For those of you who remember older gearboxe..."For those of you who remember older gearboxes I actually think the synchromesh on these markets is broken"<br /><br />Seriously. LB has been double de-clutching for most of 2015.<br /><br />FM, everything you touch turns to f**king gold, usually within the next 15 minutes after you put the trade on at the moment. Enjoy it. We were there just two short months ago...!<br /><br />"Vicarious" PnL is great today, especially as it's all the short-term trading P that LB has to look at just for the moment, otherwise plenty of L.<br /><br />What was the trigger for the DX spike today? It began before the US macro releases, and after fairly strong data out of Germany. Not really sure what FX traders are smoking at this point.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11489565119857545372015-02-26T16:07:36.972+00:002015-02-26T16:07:36.972+00:00FM, I did the same underweighting US and overweigh...FM, I did the same underweighting US and overweighting EU 2wks ago, and am holding on.<br /><br />For forward looking prediction/decision, I expect EU to hit the moon on super Mario, just like Nikkei flying on Kuroda San.Cityhunternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22019259983491279522015-02-26T15:39:31.801+00:002015-02-26T15:39:31.801+00:00thats awesome - keep us posted. I love vicarious P...thats awesome - keep us posted. I love vicarious PnL.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36670121530887583102015-02-26T15:38:30.706+00:002015-02-26T15:38:30.706+00:00Messy messy messy. as MM said re Fed, something fo...<br />Messy messy messy. as MM said re Fed, something for everyone, on ly I think it applies to all markets. <br /><br />Any argument sands up at the moment no matter how opposed, if that makes sense. Bull or bear arguments for all asset classes make sense. <br /><br />and FM .. forward looking only please. post event glory doesn't count ! Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41695388563602928802015-02-26T15:36:17.243+00:002015-02-26T15:36:17.243+00:00Ok this is fun, but also somewhat silly. I was sho...Ok this is fun, but also somewhat silly. I was shorting EURUSD 100 pips higher not long ago. I've closed half this fx posn just above 1.1200. I'm still USD bullish.FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89944946737806257162015-02-26T15:10:16.773+00:002015-02-26T15:10:16.773+00:00Prev post brief due to FX going crazy. My curr vie...Prev post brief due to FX going crazy. My curr view: <br />1. I expect EU equities to outperform US equities in the nr future (amending large equities posn accordingly: closed remaining US equity longs today, tightened stops on Jap and EU equities). <br />2. Think USD might make another move higher (initiated a small long USD, short EUR fx posn).<br /><br /><br /><br />FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16119804049162922622015-02-26T15:03:51.675+00:002015-02-26T15:03:51.675+00:00uh oh - beginning to wonder if the exotic foreign ...uh oh - beginning to wonder if the exotic foreign beauty that's been lining us up for a re-flationary pleasure trip, is actually a cross-dressing hooker named Brent...<br />Perhaps too early to make bold conclusions - let's see how this unfolds - as of now I'm still 3rd in line behind Left and FM. washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-281871109244415582015-02-26T14:04:21.617+00:002015-02-26T14:04:21.617+00:00For those of you who remember older gearboxes I ac...For those of you who remember older gearboxes I actually think the synchromesh on these markets is broken making it very hard to change gear smoothly Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16541758574254902712015-02-26T14:01:15.474+00:002015-02-26T14:01:15.474+00:00Pol - we should just serve up our brains to amp no...Pol - we should just serve up our brains to amp now - perhaps MM and left can bring the fava beans and chianti.<br />On a more serious note, why is gold now nearly positively correlated to the dollar with a rising trend? Is it a monetary base (euro being the latest QE candidate and all that) argument? I think a lot of longstanding portfolio construction assumptions would need to be revisited if this continues.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50352444326956986442015-02-26T13:59:59.379+00:002015-02-26T13:59:59.379+00:00Have initiated long posns on a couple of USD pairs...Have initiated long posns on a couple of USD pairs, and short EURUSD (spot) above 1.1300.FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59596689146086349752015-02-26T13:41:47.007+00:002015-02-26T13:41:47.007+00:00Polemic, Amps never left the building old boy.
He ...Polemic, Amps never left the building old boy.<br />He has been eating , sleeping and sweating the data to work out these soccer ratings.<br />That bond move was sharp, you can't fight those moves that correlate with it neither.<br />It's a bullshit market and god knows what shit they talk about down at the club after the bell rings.<br /><br />" I say old boy , you spoken to our fairy bread president today about the lack of hundreds and thousands on our bread?"<br /><br />" Indeed, I have old chap, and he thinks it's a great idea if you tag a couple waiters and con them into thinking membership awaits if their willing to swap shifts with whoever is doing it" <br /><br />" Well, you"ll have to tell the President to find another asshole , I'm retired, why? because their all doing it"amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81275723882289455442015-02-26T13:30:32.942+00:002015-02-26T13:30:32.942+00:00@polemic : don't be polemic ahahah you're ...@polemic : don't be polemic ahahah you're Great! !!<br /><br />Sufficient performance of euro fixed income. ... crazy stuff.. give me duration please i need it...there's nothing scarcer todayTheBondStrategisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15654760354283741885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18816345463315766372015-02-26T13:05:38.126+00:002015-02-26T13:05:38.126+00:00Bravo @FMBravo @FMCityhunternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33029664805343091282015-02-26T12:47:20.901+00:002015-02-26T12:47:20.901+00:00Woohoo Amps is back !!
You've been missed, h...Woohoo Amps is back !! <br /><br />You've been missed, how was the clinic? <br /><br />They seem to have got you back on old form. <br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61297356775009126952015-02-26T12:42:25.977+00:002015-02-26T12:42:25.977+00:00You talking about the US FED, something for everyo...You talking about the US FED, something for everyone..I just want it to $%#@ $%^ go it's own way.<br /><br />C ya asshole!amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.com