tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post151595959617404562..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Twenty Riddles of the SphinxMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38159832221899787592011-02-03T01:41:11.060+00:002011-02-03T01:41:11.060+00:001. 1350
2. Not Saudi, unca sam has given approval ...1. 1350<br />2. Not Saudi, unca sam has given approval for any shit to be stirred there<br />3. Yes<br />4. No<br />5. Yes, especially when Q2 inflation figures are disbelived by the market, starting with China and Jakarta, then Singapore, all these 3 are foot-dragging due to politics; all 3 markets are ready to fall sharp<br />6. No hike, King is talking the market to believe he is concern abt inflation, that is all he will do in 2011<br />7. No<br />8. No<br />9. ECB, but that will be in 2012<br />10.Not this time, unca sam first <br />11. Yes<br />12. 1.43<br />13. Huh?<br />14. hedgies keep forgetting why the Fed and Congress would need QE3 and QE4. How will the US fund its US$1.5tr deficit without monetizing ?<br />15.Yes, many more days until S&P1350 at least<br />16. No clue<br />17. No clue<br />18. No<br />19. When China announces Q2 2011 inflation numbers and market is shocked Asian governments from China to Singapore are all still trying to massage their numbers <br />20. Huh!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38529350032745264672011-02-02T19:34:36.275+00:002011-02-02T19:34:36.275+00:00Tradebot - They all have, except for one small lag...Tradebot - They all have, except for one small laggard.<br /><br />Construction NPL's + risky loans about 8% of loan book system wide with the expected big variation from place to place. Provisions around 31%. No comment as to whether it's enough.<br /><br />Equity-for-debt properties (which are less relevant than you might think) total 68 bn and are 32% provisioned for. Generous, imho.<br /><br />Here's a table - http://tinyurl.com/6jqcfce. Tread lightly, though. It's got its faults.<br /><br />Unnim and Catalunya Caixa will not survive. Caja Duero-España is doubtful. And I'd suggest that NovacaixaGalicia's figures be taken with a lump of salt. BBVA has announced they'll be fishing for these types, btw.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80302765167084595682011-02-02T14:04:13.752+00:002011-02-02T14:04:13.752+00:00predictions are hard, especially about the future ...predictions are hard, especially about the future as Yogi Berra said. Despite that here goes nothing :<br /><br />1. 1350<br />2. No<br />3. Yes<br />4. No<br />5. No<br />6. No<br />7. Pass<br />8. ECB is not buying anymore???<br />9. BoE!<br />10. Not long but Goldman is always guilty<br />11. No, Draghi will<br />12. 1.33<br />13. nope<br />14. Yep. QE3 will be back on cards but in 2012.<br />15. No<br />16. Moody is rated???<br />17. No - see above.<br />18. no<br />19. late in Q3 of 2011<br />20. Huh??Tradebotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69460200096989990612011-02-02T13:54:47.012+00:002011-02-02T13:54:47.012+00:00Hey Charles,
17....too early to say! Didn't Z...Hey Charles,<br /><br />17....too early to say! Didn't Zapatero want the banks to disclose all their real estate related loan level data to the market place by end of Jan?? No sign of it...<br /><br />Residental mortgage book of the cajas might be okay due to the strict lending standards but the corpse stinking the place up is at the corporate loan book ie. developer or land backed deals. Sure, they are all in the banking book as you can't reval this properly but you can fool some people sometimes but not the market - hence the cajas haven't been able to fund themselves outside BoS / ECB. That is the key to the problem and until there is a resolution (combination of disclosure, recognition of losses and more capital) nothing will change.<br /><br />Good news is that although the problem is big (my guess EUR 60bn) it is small enough for the sovereign to fund it.Tradebotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6742832658767653182011-02-01T19:53:29.570+00:002011-02-01T19:53:29.570+00:001.Dow 12200
2.No
3.No
4.No
5.maybe
6.No
7.three a ...1.Dow 12200<br />2.No<br />3.No<br />4.No<br />5.maybe<br />6.No<br />7.three a trend , wait & see<br />8.No<br />9.BoE<br />10.Don't care<br />11.Yeah<br />12.man thats hard, had dow 12200,eu 4000, gu 6500 wti 93-4 same horse different jockey when when were in the home straight,<br />13.Don't care<br />14.Did the sun rise this morning?<br />15.A handful<br />16.Don't care<br />17.NO<br />18.FAT Chance<br />19.Techs Dow 12200, teh bonds are the key.<br />20.Shergar is warming up in the mounting yard.<br /><br />Now I haven't got any path dependent bias have I?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11882601304613626929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40356750369765011402011-02-01T18:49:55.560+00:002011-02-01T18:49:55.560+00:00* I guess you didn't jump on TMM's Ibex/Da...* I guess you didn't jump on TMM's Ibex/Dax bandwagon then?<br /><br />I'd love to discuss it, but a different forum would be in order.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23348716735336361572011-02-01T16:56:28.491+00:002011-02-01T16:56:28.491+00:001. 1250
2. Algeria, perhaps Libya?
3. No
4. No
5. ...1. 1250<br />2. Algeria, perhaps Libya?<br />3. No<br />4. No<br />5. No, China will continue to tighten.<br />6. No hike, just jawboning.<br />7. Not sure.<br />8. No peripheral bond market is a disaster<br />9. ECB and BoE - no hike this year<br />10. GS will wear a Fez to work.<br />11. No Darth Weber.<br />12. 1.33. DGDF is becoming a danger.<br />13. Swerve will get a cush directorship. <br />14. Yes. Loadsamoney...<br />15. No<br />16. They will continue to blow each other.<br />17. Spain is a disaster that must be acknowledged*<br />18. Nothing will happen in many front ends<br />19. March, but perhaps even sooner<br />20. Ireland will eventually reject the Bad Bank solution in which taxpayers bail out bankers and developers and some kind of restructuring will occur. Don't rule out exit from the Euro.<br /><br />* Charles, I know you think that Spain is going to be OK, but it seems to me that they are taking the Irish Bad Bank route and are simply less far along the road toward the same outcome. <br /><br />If Spain had their own currency they could follow the same route as the US, Japan, UK, but like Ireland they are locked in, and the cost to taxpayers is crushing. 20-30% long-term unemployment is unsustainable and will strain social order in a country that is not that long removed from the era of fascist dictatorship.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47846670498748614952011-02-01T15:21:12.615+00:002011-02-01T15:21:12.615+00:00A Scottish tennis player?
Angus Podgorny?A Scottish tennis player?<br /><br />Angus Podgorny?Squintshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16720339255368559664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4424635949207117932011-02-01T14:40:13.357+00:002011-02-01T14:40:13.357+00:0017 (what else?)...
Classifying it as 'caja pr...17 (what else?)...<br /><br />Classifying it as 'caja problem' is so 2010. Between only CaixaBank and BFA, 50% of the savings banks' business is on the verge of being transferred to the banking sector. Almost all the rest are following suit.<br /><br />CaixaBank's solution is to leave the bad assets with its principal shareholder, the now-foundation La Caixa. The model was to trade a large investment portfolio and junk assets for pure financial stuff.<br /><br />How BFA, with 330 billion of assets goes about cleansing itself is yet to be determined. For reasons of internal politics, expect that process to be a little more lumpy, but Rato will manage to structure it in a way that will draw private capital.<br /><br />As for the rest of them - some already comply with Basel III, some have no hope whatsoever and will be swallowed up by someone. Most, if they're willing to see their parent charitable foundations transform themselves into cheapskates for a while can work this out.<br /><br />An indication of general sentiment might be Banco Sabadell's 10% dilution. Placed yesterday at 6% below market, it is currently trading at 3% above placement price.<br /><br />Core capital for Spanish banks/cajas can be seen at<br />http://tinyurl.com/6fonely<br /><br />Interesting to see the outcome of Friday's Germany Spain summit. The Merkel will be schlepping no less than six ministers with her.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42606136641750933602011-02-01T13:33:23.326+00:002011-02-01T13:33:23.326+00:001. 1350
2. to Algeria - long natural gas
3. yes
4....1. 1350<br />2. to Algeria - long natural gas<br />3. yes<br />4. almost<br />5. not yet<br />6. no hike, the captain will sink with the boat<br />7. yes<br />8. no<br />9. ECB<br />10.roughly 3 days<br />11. no, Draghi will<br />12. 1.43<br />13. nice idea<br />14. yes but no QE3<br />15. no<br />16. no clue<br />17. no way, nothing can save the cajas without sinking spain<br />18. no, waste of time<br />19. in march<br />20. don't knowAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com