tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1307580276214902219..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Belt tighteningMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39019437115114037672007-07-05T14:46:00.000+01:002007-07-05T14:46:00.000+01:00Yeah, that might have an impact I guess...but I th...Yeah, that might have an impact I guess...but I thought there was no stamp duty on new builds in Ireland priced at under €500k? Or are Irish dwellings under half a mill an extinct species? (I know they are in Dublin, but thought the rest of counbtry was slightly less ludicrously priced)Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39387315599664277522007-07-05T13:19:00.000+01:002007-07-05T13:19:00.000+01:00Re: the Irish housing starts.It was suggested that...Re: the Irish housing starts.<BR/>It was suggested that maybe the figure is somehow election related. In late May the government promised changes in stamp duty if they won the election, so buyers went on hold waiting for the changes...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35926935646007329322007-07-05T13:07:00.000+01:002007-07-05T13:07:00.000+01:00Well.....implied vol of the eurodollar strip IS hi...Well.....implied vol of the eurodollar strip IS higher than than of euribor or short sterling, so that would suggest that something of a risk premium is attached to the US monetary policy trajectory. <BR/><BR/>That having been said, the implied volatility premium in eurodollars has actually fallen recently, so there's not much to suggest that that has been the driver of recent dollar weakness.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22004168388164881102007-07-05T11:22:00.000+01:002007-07-05T11:22:00.000+01:00Hi Macroman, thinking about the weaker USD and Fed...Hi Macroman, thinking about the weaker USD and Fed policy it would seem the market is more certain of the policy path of the BoE and the ECB, and more uncertain re the Fed (i.e. the range of forecasts is more dispersed), and perhaps this uncertainty warrants a slight cheapening of the USD. Any idea if this can be measured from the options market?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com