tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1246255602976146705..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Five bricks in the wall of worryMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger43125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48018544369068273332016-07-08T22:29:24.619+01:002016-07-08T22:29:24.619+01:00U.S. Bonds tend to add value during the 3rd quarte...U.S. Bonds tend to add value during the 3rd quarter * when market risk profile ( price based variable #2 ** ) is "high" ***<br /><br />* http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1109542-market-map/4897108-market-map-allocates-long-bond?source=instablogs_title <br /><br />** https://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2015/11/14/market-map-model-tactical-asset-allocation-using-low-expense-index-etfs-2015/<br /><br />*** http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1109542-market-map/4757426-market-map-allocates-cashCon Syshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09235535007547947531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31506930510399699222016-07-07T15:26:56.345+01:002016-07-07T15:26:56.345+01:00CV and others,
I looked at Annual and Semi-annual...CV and others,<br /><br />I looked at Annual and Semi-annual reports from Proshares regarding leveraged inverse ETFs and see that counterparties in Swap Agreements include DB and Credit Suisse...<br /><br />Besides CP risk and ETF-vendor liquidity risk, could these be a ticking time-bomb for other reasons?<br /><br />Thanks for your thoughts.<br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80707264155860942532016-07-07T00:00:36.998+01:002016-07-07T00:00:36.998+01:00Yield curve on JPN govt debt is negative, I'm ...Yield curve on JPN govt debt is negative, I'm seeing -34 bp for the two year and -37 bp for the 5 year... <br /><br /><br />Still trying to get my head around it. Skyguyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07139541599828256142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71013473358133562942016-07-06T23:22:30.927+01:002016-07-06T23:22:30.927+01:00MM ... an idea for tomorrow's post: Will this...MM ... an idea for tomorrow's post: Will this be the most important US jobs number evah? Will May get greatly revised upward? Will June be almost goldilocks? And will the US market use all that to break on thru to a new all-time high?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77955853547773908522016-07-06T21:18:46.955+01:002016-07-06T21:18:46.955+01:00When will we see mean reversion of the long bond a...When will we see mean reversion of the long bond and gold? Are they peaking this week?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76917999551439651432016-07-06T20:09:44.467+01:002016-07-06T20:09:44.467+01:00@MM, Anon 5.54 here, just pulling your leg (hence ...@MM, Anon 5.54 here, just pulling your leg (hence the smiley face). Do Spooz ever go down though? Not on FOMC day it seems... :) Might follow those btfd-ers and get long into this...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78300685847508664842016-07-06T19:39:39.392+01:002016-07-06T19:39:39.392+01:00@ Anon 5.54 No, I ban worthless comments from us...@ Anon 5.54 No, I ban worthless comments from useless trolls who parrot the same useless comments every day (that the market goes up, that is. When it goes down, funny enough, they don't stand up to be counted.)Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30089963971537995282016-07-06T19:18:03.571+01:002016-07-06T19:18:03.571+01:00We would hike but well, the data wasn't great ...We would hike but well, the data wasn't great and bah blah.... maybe next time...<br />Why am I not surprised?<br /><br />Janet, you fuckwit, you won't ever hike because your bosses have $20tn of debt that they can't afford the interest payments on. Period. Trade accordingly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39843326587730226002016-07-06T17:54:41.713+01:002016-07-06T17:54:41.713+01:00Italians banning short selling of banks.
MM banni...Italians banning short selling of banks.<br /><br />MM banning btfd comments in Spooz due to his offside short position ;))Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61402304987993705802016-07-06T17:05:56.767+01:002016-07-06T17:05:56.767+01:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4752337318414321712016-07-06T16:44:32.350+01:002016-07-06T16:44:32.350+01:00@ washed. I think the NPL's in the public bank...@ washed. I think the NPL's in the public banks has been an issue for sometime, now they are finally deciding to realize them. I think this is a good sign frankly. The public banking sector, which is still much bigger than ICIC and HDFC and the few other privates has been a big source of dismay for india bulls. Cleaning up the banks, recapitalize them, the thinking goes will help with infrastructure spending etc<br /><br />RE DB/CS etc. When does the dividend yield become attractive enough as well. But if these num nuts in ECB want to see CoCo's bailed in, go for it. Stoxx will be 20% lower and they will have wasted a big QE bullet. Not sure what Draghi is thinking here. Markets are giving a pass at free money, yet they wont open the wallet? Just freaking bail out the banks alredy<br /><br />@ Doomsday, agree it will end badly. Just think its a lot farther away than most expect.abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63036416381168477252016-07-06T16:33:03.427+01:002016-07-06T16:33:03.427+01:00Re: Uk property. These fund lockups are wonderful ...Re: Uk property. These fund lockups are wonderful - the best thing that could happen to the Uk would be a 50% crash in property prices (commercial & domestic). Then Brits could stop speculating on this ponzi scheme and focus on re-balancing the economy. Let's hope it crashes soon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76150329053523118222016-07-06T16:19:48.231+01:002016-07-06T16:19:48.231+01:00Current action is a case in point. Basically, all ...Current action is a case in point. Basically, all major CRE funds in the U.K. now appear to be locking up. What happens next then? Well obviously some money can be raised, vultures will be circling etc. But at the end of the day, the chap who has his funds locked up will need to sell another part of his portfolio to raise cash, etc etc. CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4838724648535243872016-07-06T16:17:51.997+01:002016-07-06T16:17:51.997+01:00Anon 3:19 here. As I said above, good to see funda...Anon 3:19 here. As I said above, good to see fundamentals winning the day in US equities. All time highs by tomorrow...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68339159652302851342016-07-06T15:47:50.878+01:002016-07-06T15:47:50.878+01:00Well yes AB, on this ...
"Is it possible th...Well yes AB, on this ... <br /><br />"Is it possible that bank equity is falling in value because the business is horrible, not because their is liquidity/solvency crisis looming? "<br /><br />This is what I was trying to say on DB. CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84972565798718926862016-07-06T15:46:33.044+01:002016-07-06T15:46:33.044+01:00Bank Stocks
Is it possible that bank equity is fa...Bank Stocks<br /><br />Is it possible that bank equity is falling in value because the business is horrible, not because their is liquidity/solvency crisis looming? <br /><br />How much will you pay for equity in a business that cannot make a sufficient ROE? Liquidation value? How do you feel about book value? ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7091108597470113272016-07-06T15:46:32.235+01:002016-07-06T15:46:32.235+01:00"I understand problems where there is liquidi..."I understand problems where there is liquidity mismatch between the etf and the underlying, but where such mismatches do not exist (i.e. the total market etfs, sector etfs) where is the problem ?"<br /><br />Liquidity problems in one market begets liquidity problems in another market. The nightmare scenario, in my view, is one of counterparty risks. What happens if iShares funds suddenly stop trading because its parent, Blackrock, has problems or is roiled by liquidity problems in key parts of its fund structure. These guys are the new AIGs in my view. They won't "go bust" as such, but they are counterparties to ALL of us in some way, and as a result they are the sharp end of the stick. And the kicker is ... there is no fail-safe liquidity if they have problems. CBs won't be able to help, at least not initially. <br /><br />Now, don't get me wrong. I am not saying that this is absolutely certain to happen (I am not a Cassandra you know!), but I do think it is worthwhile keeping an eye on, especially in the non-financial corporate debt market, where we know bubbles likely are forming due to the hunt for yield. CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85760956463003953012016-07-06T15:43:27.037+01:002016-07-06T15:43:27.037+01:00On a positive note may I send a thank you to Lloyd...On a positive note may I send a thank you to Lloyds who so recently redeemed some bonds of mine. I suspect hindsight will show they did some people a favour.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20818326867079354252016-07-06T15:32:48.263+01:002016-07-06T15:32:48.263+01:00economic data mean nothing now, pay attention to m...economic data mean nothing now, pay attention to margin hike worldwide and CVA adjustment... <br />Cocos are here to collapse...TheBondStrategisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15654760354283741885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72935994323046579862016-07-06T15:31:58.939+01:002016-07-06T15:31:58.939+01:00I understand problems where there is liquidity mis...<i>I understand problems where there is liquidity mismatch between the etf and the underlying, but where such mismatches do not exist (i.e. the total market etfs, sector etfs) where is the problem ? </i><br /><br />How exactly does "buying the whole market" work in your world? In mine it is done stock by stock or through futures (where the latter reminds my of portfolio insurance...).Eddienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75623112920757490822016-07-06T15:27:00.717+01:002016-07-06T15:27:00.717+01:00Well, I am an amateur, as I've stated before.....Well, I am an amateur, as I've stated before...but today I bought more AU and continued TLT as my main ideas....<br /><br />I certainly wouldn't touch Dougie's TBT here...<br /><br />(I have not dabbled in gold in decades, lads....)Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37304768819207946602016-07-06T15:19:49.239+01:002016-07-06T15:19:49.239+01:00ISM beats by 5 standard deviations, DJIA drops nea...ISM beats by 5 standard deviations, DJIA drops nearly 100 points. Stupid fucks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20174292489873284942016-07-06T15:15:23.267+01:002016-07-06T15:15:23.267+01:00I understand problems where there is liquidity mis...I understand problems where there is liquidity mismatch between the etf and the underlying, but where such mismatches do not exist (i.e. the total market etfs, sector etfs) where is the problem ? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25791783198371576542016-07-06T14:35:50.853+01:002016-07-06T14:35:50.853+01:00CV, I totally agree with your point 2. While ETFs ...CV, I totally agree with your point 2. While ETFs have become hugely popular in the post Lehman landscape, I am convinced that they still need to pass few tests in stressed markets. In what is certainly a contrarian move, we took the decision to eliminate such instruments from our portfolios at the beginning of the year .... Life of a stock/bond picker is certainly not easy these days, but I much prefer to own what I know.ALnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43366827440419304762016-07-06T14:26:26.008+01:002016-07-06T14:26:26.008+01:00The sad and crazy thing about "helicopter mon...The sad and crazy thing about "helicopter money" is... It will probably end up in the same place as QE money... In the stock market.<br /><br />Never underestimate the power of greed.Skrnoreply@blogger.com