tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1216453851315071280..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Pump up the volume?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60240267405323522142016-08-17T06:58:15.324+01:002016-08-17T06:58:15.324+01:00MM if this kind of daily volume study worked, us s...MM if this kind of daily volume study worked, us stat arb guys would have destroyed it already. SRXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08893693527065807228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78519945208167286362016-08-17T04:11:14.985+01:002016-08-17T04:11:14.985+01:00Re China PPI, just to correct myself, the yoy PPI ...Re China PPI, just to correct myself, the yoy PPI comparisons have been getting less negative, but not actually "rising."johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58477611441339196942016-08-17T00:40:01.057+01:002016-08-17T00:40:01.057+01:00oh, TINA
buying spooz is the only way forward
buy...oh, TINA<br /><br />buying spooz is the only way forward<br />buying spooz is the only way forward<br />buying spooz is the only way forward<br /><br />OM<br /><br />buying spooz is the only way forward<br />buying spooz is the only way forward<br />buying spooz is the only way forward<br /><br />OM<br /><br />OMNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48532304096057509092016-08-16T21:25:25.627+01:002016-08-16T21:25:25.627+01:00@johno: As you indicate, buying spooz is the only ...@johno: As you indicate, buying spooz is the only way forward. Consider the following YTD returns:<br />- Avg macro fund +0.1%<br />- Avg hedge fund +1.2%<br />- SP500 +7.7%12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53297691417954425462016-08-16T18:30:21.530+01:002016-08-16T18:30:21.530+01:00So, Jackson Hole will be about "Designing Res...So, Jackson Hole will be about "Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future," Yellen will be speaking there, and Williams just put out a piece saying, in a low r-star world, central banks should consider a higher inflation target and/or nominal GDP targeting. If markets start anticipating that the Fed will adopt one/both of these approaches by/during the next recession, is there a trade today? Besides buying spooz (to pre-empt 12yo HFM).<br /><br />Re EM local bonds and LB's comments from last week, you may well be right. But for now I'm modestly positioned the other way with the "Tiny Punters" and other characters. There are many reasons why this trade may work, including: 1) since the late 70's, EM assets have outperformed following big depreciations, 2) after four years of poor returns, investors were underweight and may not have fully corrected that, 3) EM real rates look decent, especially versus DM, 4) the EM-DM growth differential has stopped narrowing and looks to be widening out, 5) current accounts have adjusted significantly, 6) Chinese PPI appears to have bottomed and has been rising since the beginning of the year (end of deflation?!). The timing may be off. It's already moved a lot, and seeing MBONOs finally joining the rally may be some contrary signal. Also, Rousseff's impeachment (or maybe the October municipal elections) may be the sell-the-news moment, when hope has to start being substantiated by policy-making fact in Brazil. And then there's China, where private sector debt-to-GDP is approaching levels (230%-ish) that has been a ceiling for other economies.<br />johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53897918109109881752016-08-16T16:38:54.527+01:002016-08-16T16:38:54.527+01:00Utility and REITs are falling, reversing the bulli...Utility and REITs are falling, reversing the bullish trends. Is it a signal of the rising of bond yields? <br /><br />EM bonds and equities are rallying. If this is a rotation, I wonder where the money is going: traditional retailers and ag sectors? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83453602891295993862016-08-16T16:29:32.291+01:002016-08-16T16:29:32.291+01:00Random thoughts
HYG, on a total return basis, ba...Random thoughts <br /><br />HYG, on a total return basis, back to all time highs (the power of carry/dividends)<br />Eurostoxx 50 stuck at 200 day, hasnt been consistently above for over 1 year<br />Yen near 100, but the dollar is weak across the board<br />Asia Ex Jp, large and small caps doing well, powering ahead (though indonesia is stalling near old highs)<br /><br />US Eco Surprise, starting to fade<br />CRB Raw / XLB/ XME, fading as well (though could just be consolidating)abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87556945282399377272016-08-16T14:49:24.783+01:002016-08-16T14:49:24.783+01:00Well at least NIRP will produce inflation for vaul...Well at least NIRP will produce inflation for vault builders.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16815991582619958352016-08-16T14:16:51.230+01:002016-08-16T14:16:51.230+01:00Nice post MM. I have always been reluctant to use ...Nice post MM. I have always been reluctant to use volume as a primary indicator. I think it works better for signs of capitulation/excess or at the individual stock level on news events etc<br /><br />At highs, you have this tendency to grind up and in those cases you dont need volume. <br /><br />PS - are you using excel to do most of your analysis? I started using R and its f-ing awesome. I highly recommend. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45199923231220540212016-08-16T13:53:37.102+01:002016-08-16T13:53:37.102+01:00http://uk.businessinsider.com/european-banks-look-...http://uk.businessinsider.com/european-banks-look-to-physically-store-cash-to-avoid-2016-8<br /><br />Seriously f..ked up system we now have gentlemen. Never have I seen anything remotely so screwed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4522293453130085062016-08-16T13:17:32.754+01:002016-08-16T13:17:32.754+01:00Yes, macro man, where cancelling summer trade holi...Yes, macro man, where cancelling summer trade holidays. Too risky that environment. Just looking around in volume. amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70714014873009825922016-08-16T10:30:29.975+01:002016-08-16T10:30:29.975+01:00What an amazing after the rally call. Where can I ...What an amazing after the rally call. Where can I subscribe? <br /><br />Is it you who has that yacht moored in Marbella named ZEW? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36638049493658304802016-08-16T10:18:11.285+01:002016-08-16T10:18:11.285+01:00Equities once again pushing up on positive German ...Equities once again pushing up on positive German ZEW news. Would just like to take this opportunity to thank those negative equities for donating us their money...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18156684664202609042016-08-16T09:20:17.958+01:002016-08-16T09:20:17.958+01:00I made a tactical mistake on the Ftse . I started ...I made a tactical mistake on the Ftse . I started reloading my short 6750-6800. Fortunately, I realised the market strength before I became net short and removed it. There's something to be said for a lack of conviction at times if it allows you to be flexible. After expiry and closer to month end squaring looks a better time to be adopting a corrective position. When I thought about it I should have seen this month more clearly given the 3 to 4 billion remove for Brexit was obviously going to create a vacuum of size to fill and thin holiday volume is actually a good trading position to do just that. Saying that I have to take the view this has been a trading month and not one for investors to be concerned about. The 3 wave virtually parabolic move in long end gilts as far as I am concerned is a good reason to just bank what remains of that position.<br />Whilst I also don't subscribe to euphoria in equities sharing your view I can't say the same for gilts.<br />Indeed, looking around at the general market position the consensus I'd be concerned with is the widely held view that the Fed won't move anytime soon. Is virtually everybody going to right about this ? Moreover, the asset spread effect if they are wrong would be really nasty at this point if positioning and consensus actually mirror each other. Trading positions are much more likely to bank profit in the face of a surprise.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.com