tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1183523843531874337..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Musings On Mexico's Presidential Election--A Market Waiting for TomorrowMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58901624899439846282020-03-24T16:41:27.017+00:002020-03-24T16:41:27.017+00:00Thank you for posting such a great article! I foun...Thank you for posting such a great article! I found your website perfect for my needs. It contains wonderful and helpful posts. Keep up the good work!. Thank you for this wonderful Article!<br /><a href="https://www.bloglovin.com/@jirasin" rel="nofollow">bloglovin</a>boyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00648952042340829627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23666297098994742862018-02-13T18:13:33.741+00:002018-02-13T18:13:33.741+00:00@Eddie, I would argue Ben is wrong. What the autho...@Eddie, I would argue Ben is wrong. What the author has overlooked is value and behaviour. Measure inflation over how many years you like and compere it to the value relationship between employee and employer over the same amount of time.<br /><br />The dynamics have changed much over the past twenty years, and as such it is a fools errand to believe inflation can in way be measured from past performance. It is however easy to measure public behaviour on past performance. <br /><br />There has always been a balance between value and inflation, which for some years is completely out of kilter. <br /><br />Rebellion, revolution, war take your pick but history shows one of these is the natural clear out. <br /><br />The question should be, which one comes first. <br /><br />Inflation - much ado about nothing when long term investing is involved. <br />Skrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15637819137472818789noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64568935402086710582018-02-13T18:04:40.101+00:002018-02-13T18:04:40.101+00:00Mental illness runs awild on this thread...
If yo...Mental illness runs awild on this thread...<br /><br />If you blinked you did not get filled in RBOB. Targets: 1.70, 1.72, 1.74, 1.76<br /><br />So with all the talk about inflation, should we finally put this trade on already? Charts may be setting up for the puke of the century to unwind the longest positioning of a lifetime, and I am not talking about short vol.<br /><br />TLT massive head and shoulders distance is 27 points with neckline at 116. The trade is not for a day, week, or even a month. Fed will cushion it and not let it bleed all at once. Ultimate target is 89 with scaleouts @ 109, 101, and 97.<br /><br />Ready to be thoroughly ridiculed, just like on my DXY short.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18753325126106080652018-02-13T16:26:36.956+00:002018-02-13T16:26:36.956+00:00Dear Little Lefty, if you could send relevant pape...Dear Little Lefty, if you could send relevant paperwork related to , and only of what Kerry so kindly left me due to his unfathomable foresight in such matters of that time it would be appreciated to the extent that I will gladly be on my way. <br /><br />Here is an address you can send said paperwork along with a short letter to the administration stating my name and student number :n9688471 with instructions to be passed on to moi. <br /><br />QUT Business School <br />GPO Box 2434 <br />Brisbane QLD 4001<br />Australia<br /><br />PS: I know you don't want to pass it onto me but, at the very least you could pass it on for you Father. Just add it to the growing list of your Father's trophies that you have sold. ( don't go asking Rupes for advice, his not into trophies...oh...than again) Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87557104710175552752018-02-13T14:02:31.819+00:002018-02-13T14:02:31.819+00:00US yields rising changes the game plan for risk sp...US yields rising changes the game plan for risk spreads. Where it become critical to the future of stocks is anybodys guess. Although some historical comparisons would be useful about now.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81033328367471808782018-02-13T12:44:08.567+00:002018-02-13T12:44:08.567+00:00Its really important how the market will interpret...Its really important how the market will interpret the US budget. Is it:<br /><br />1. big fiscall stimulus, rising corporate profits, lets buy stocks<br /><br />or <br /><br />2. who will fund the deficits? UST, IG and junk yields going up, lets sell bonds and stocks<br /><br />In any case it seems to me mean-reversion mode in vol wont return for a while.<br /><br />(further on, will market sell bonds also if 1 materializes?)Belektronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18315498538605087596noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41285255591326004342018-02-13T10:59:34.195+00:002018-02-13T10:59:34.195+00:00Quoting Ben Hunt from Epsilon Theory:
"I’d a...Quoting Ben Hunt from Epsilon Theory:<br /><br />"<b>I’d argue that there is no more important question for long-term investors and allocators than getting the inflation question right.</b> You don’t have to be precisely right, but you sure better be generally right. That’s the source of the “rethink” that’s happening right now, and that’s why we don’t believe that what’s happening in markets is a temporary blip or a “technical” adjustment. It’s the first stage of a fundamental shift in the behavior and beliefs of investors, and that’s a really big deal."Eddiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18011114950206155472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89122696629568518402018-02-12T23:18:52.526+00:002018-02-12T23:18:52.526+00:00Likely still a bull market, just more chop. '1...Likely still a bull market, just more chop. '15-'16 we had the China slowdown, EM macro adjustment, the oil capex shock, etc., lots of deflationary risk to price. Last year was Goldilocks. This year we have Trump/Republican Congress doing everything to overheat the economy (people see what this budget is doing to growth estimates?) and hasten a rise in rates that might kill the expansion. Still early, IMO, but we are entering the "late cycle." I think that's what a swift 10% correction on no news (but higher rates and fiscal profligacy) is telling us ... it isn't all just a "technically-driven" adjustment. Question is where do you allocate your risk? EM is earlier cycle and USD is in a bear market, i.e. EM-supportive. Picking one country's equity market over another's isn't my forte so spreading it around EM Asia. China is particularly interesting here given the apparent liquidation of WMPs and MSCI inclusion later this year, but I'm not doing anything heroic.<br /><br />This SPD referendum is getting interesting (recallthe CDU-SPD agreement was the proximate cause of a quick 200+ pip rally in EURUSD in Jan) ... voting between Feb 20-Mar 2.<br /><br />Re the USD, while I think it's toilet paper, now that the Republican Congress is wiping its as$ with it, the "USD liquidity is everything" hedgehogs have their catalyst. Treasury cash balances are moving higher soon. Maybe just shows up in xccy basis rather than spot. Views?johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33566793612051886102018-02-12T22:39:06.988+00:002018-02-12T22:39:06.988+00:00@Buy Stocks you better think of fading this bounce...@Buy Stocks you better think of fading this bounce. It's a dead cat bro. After the broad market sell-off last Monday we recovered some of it...same thing at the end of the week. That wasn't something that was hard to predictsdot54https://www.blogger.com/profile/15849714548471331301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48721667508465554102018-02-12T18:25:14.619+00:002018-02-12T18:25:14.619+00:00@LB and @Shawn, not sure on crude here (wrist stil...@LB and @Shawn, not sure on crude here (wrist still hurts:) but I am interested in some RBOB slightly below here. I think a possible buy is setting up in 1.63 - 1.66 area (l/t trendline, horizontal supports and major price congestion area). It's that time of the year (mid Feb) when refineries act up, fires etc. Maintenance season, reduced output before the summer-blend switch. I'll shout the entry here...<br /><br />Lord, have mercy on this place!IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13394726797390555972018-02-12T17:57:22.602+00:002018-02-12T17:57:22.602+00:00johno, checkmate & IPA looking like total f*ck...johno, checkmate & IPA looking like total f*ckwits now that we're 1300 points UP from Friday's lows... LOL! You retail chumps do make me laugh though :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81789726117909303062018-02-12T16:54:25.696+00:002018-02-12T16:54:25.696+00:00WTI....i think all 3. Not sure it is done though g...WTI....i think all 3. Not sure it is done though given the supply response is in and the var tantrum/risk off will tamp down expectations for demand.EM Inflationistahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13376753485910252234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4518813091563094972018-02-11T13:10:31.321+00:002018-02-11T13:10:31.321+00:00It was an interesting week.
Good to have you back...It was an interesting week.<br /><br />Good to have you back, IPA. Reasonable ideas about how the week will proceed. It wouldn't be a surprise to see a volatile week with at least one more plunge, but perhaps the bears will show decreasing ferocity as we approach monthly expiration on 2/16.<br /><br />As far as the overall direction of this market is concerned, it's likely we see a retrace from the existing lows, or lows to be made some time this week, IF, and only if, high yield spreads don't blow out. Widening of IG and HY spreads is likely to trigger the next phase of this sell-off, and whenever that eventually happens we will see a bear market. My guess is that by the time that happens, inflation fears, growth rates and Fed rate hike expectations will all have been scaled back.<br /><br />The breakdown in WTI was either: a) overdue as it was overbought; b) inevitable as everyone was long or; c) to be expected on increasing supply. Wish we had traded that but we didn't; it's probably done dumping for now.<br /><br />To LB, the important of crude oil is as an input to US inflation expectations, which we think are a bit over-done here. It makes sense to sell TIPS and buy nominal Treasuries here. The Fed will probably pause a bit on the balance sheet unwind now, it isn't going to blow up the Treasury market, the MBS market and the housing market all at once! The market shock we have just experienced is probably enough to slow the economy, or to reflect a slowing that is already underway.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76183529982756453212018-02-10T22:15:56.354+00:002018-02-10T22:15:56.354+00:00Finally time to read the post! Thank you, Shawn. I...Finally time to read the post! Thank you, Shawn. I'll have to give it some thought. After you just posted all this great work, I hate to ask, but you do you have a view on another election where the leftist leads (but people seem to think/hope he won't win) -- Colombia?<br /><br />Buy Stocks, I have no problem with people buying stocks (unless a person thinks inflation or economic vol is materially increasing or profit margins decreasing from here, they should own some stocks, IMO, and if those variables were at more historically normal levels -- and hence the upside/downside better -- I'd say they should own a lot of stocks). Just thinking they're geniuses and lording it over others who collect different risk premiums is what I find objectionable. I don't agree with Nico's trade or his trading style, but I'm not going to be rude to him. Maybe time will vindicate his approach and not mine. Who knows.johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88918375646491894412018-02-10T11:14:10.920+00:002018-02-10T11:14:10.920+00:00Good to see my popularity here at record levels. T...Good to see my popularity here at record levels. That 1000pt Dow rally off the weeks lows must have hurt quite a few of you retail chumps :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49172204449587238112018-02-10T01:40:36.370+00:002018-02-10T01:40:36.370+00:00Head clearing done, second session of being flat a...Head clearing done, second session of being flat as a pancake, watching equities with much interest in a pattern I like developing. Wanna go long, and not just for a day. If you are not into charts, I understand. I don't even mind being called stupid as long as you tell me why you are smart.<br /><br />Anyway, let's look at the picture with the eyes of the one who is neutral and flat. I mean it only matters to those who are not biased and would like to trade two ways here, which I agree with @Skr may be the best strat. But the thing is not to get caught here and get chopped, ahem... pouring myself a drink (WTI snafu, all targets hit w/out me, what a shame).<br /><br />Some cliches first: after they shoot the generals they proceed to behead the king. Another one: animals have tails, chart candles have them too, and tails get filled. And the last one: markets rarely bottom on Friday. With that in mind...<br /><br />Generals = FANG. FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG. Like I said before, cults die slowly and this one is far from that. So the weakest one is AAPL. The strongest ones are NFLX and AMZN. You care to look at charts? Let the minor puke levels play out (as early as Monday). Everyone here has charts so I will not go there. I'll just point out that GOOG was breifly a three digit stock today and NFLX has a gap to fill (half gap fill was in today). Look at NFLX daily from mid 2015, that's all it does, fills the earnings gap and goes higher. Need to reverse that to kill the cult. AMZN is warming up to get to some minor pain levels, nothnig yet, peanuts really, but volume is perky so I gather they are gonna puke it. Major pain is needed before this group is done. BUT, the buyers are waiting on the other side too. Let them wash out a bit, if not, it's up and away from here. CULT! <br /><br />King(s) = NVDA and SOX in general. SOX finally made a double top going all the way back to 2000. I posted here that NQ is ready to sell off and SOX is leading the pack. But one does not know if this is a bear, not yet. What's missing? Pull SOX up - the right shoulder is not there yet. That's the retrace I am looking for, tradeable bottom somewhere here and a rip or gradual upclimb (better for shoulder building) and a retest of the left shoulder top. The KING has to be killed before the bear begins. Looking at NVDA specifically, there is little here to base the opinion that the party is over for good. All trendlines are intact, major support levels are too, and the panic has not set in at all. Remember, this is a crap-to-currency play as well. This being said, more time is needed and should the uptrend channel on SOX break along with horizontal supports, then we may have a signal. These things do take time, SOX is a major cyclical index and it's up eight-fold since the bottom in 2008. You can't kill this one until you shoot the generals, and you have not even begun to do that yet (except AAPL is starting to look like it's getting there). A word of caution, royals are good at deception, SOX fakes like none other. 2014 is a good example, broke the uptrend channel for seven trading sessions, reversed and annihilated all bears after that.<br /><br />Quickly on tails... Daily candle tails on cash indices all over the place. I say they get filled as early as Monday, at least 1/2 to 3/4 way and then new rally begins to move the price above today's high. That's what this trader is looking for on Monday. Target to sell the scoop and get short after this possible rally starts? Fibs are a great thing if you believe in them. Other than that, resistance levels are aplenty now in this 11-12% trading range. I think we will have weeks to do that. Process...<br /><br />@Buy Stocks, we come here to talk to each other and exchange ideas vs you who comes here to insult and brag. I wish I had a dollar for every liar who told me he bought 3/09 SPX low to the exact date and moment it happened. I added you to the list. You are the undisputed king of the trading fantasy land.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40858750519450548602018-02-09T23:45:12.150+00:002018-02-09T23:45:12.150+00:00Thanks for that Gun Club video, Nico. I don't ...Thanks for that Gun Club video, Nico. I don't remember them, something to check out more...<br /><br />- Whammer Whammerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13321677204508267915noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65418152423870341612018-02-09T20:59:37.996+00:002018-02-09T20:59:37.996+00:00Oh, and Buy Stocks, I did buy near the lows and so...Oh, and Buy Stocks, I did buy near the lows and sold near the high and it really didn't require much of this "talent" of which you brag.johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37332205197220928672018-02-09T18:47:50.068+00:002018-02-09T18:47:50.068+00:00if you ask me the Comatones packed 3x the energy o...if you ask me the Comatones packed 3x the energy of GnR but their singer Vitanza did not look white enough (he looked Mexican which gives you an idea of 1980s racism in LA). This genius died in complete oblivion.<br /><br />and then there is Gun Club and even better Texacala Jones. 1980s LA punk scene deserves a movie and Tom Hardy should kill it !<br /><br />to remain in the theme this ballad is dedicated to Buy Stocks<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsuNAJGunV4<br /><br />haunting beauty JL Pierce is the most underrated songwriter in rock historyNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82092692804473699962018-02-09T18:25:17.792+00:002018-02-09T18:25:17.792+00:00"Welcome to the Jungle, Buy Stocks."
As ..."Welcome to the Jungle, Buy Stocks."<br />As if, seriously didn't you know he's triple leverage short by now , measuring is new yacht to see if it will fit in the berth @ Port De Monacocheckmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86446282277195988372018-02-09T18:11:22.617+00:002018-02-09T18:11:22.617+00:00I'm a big GNR guy, but this market calls for t...I'm a big GNR guy, but this market calls for the Clash, no? first twenty seconds.<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-qcy0-7ngw<br /><br />EM Inflationistahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13376753485910252234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68420665218501923292018-02-09T18:08:16.049+00:002018-02-09T18:08:16.049+00:00"if you got the money honey, we got your dise..."if you got the money honey, we got your disease." Pretty sure I saw that in a slide deck somewhere. <br /><br />Axl, a gentleman and a poet.<br />EM Inflationistahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13376753485910252234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55423027945568669332018-02-09T17:47:46.843+00:002018-02-09T17:47:46.843+00:00Welcome to the Jungle, Buy Stocks.
https://www.yo...Welcome to the Jungle, Buy Stocks.<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1tj2zJ2Wvg<br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.com