tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1173361045257508321..comments2024-03-29T15:07:48.008+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The William Dudley Speaks...Still Waiting For InflationMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62227542356936666322017-08-20T16:54:14.574+01:002017-08-20T16:54:14.574+01:00@EO, I remember Trump's chances of NOT winning...@EO, I remember Trump's chances of NOT winning the election were high too. We all know how well that bet went.<br /><br />@checkmate, Trump would never resign, impeachment would take forever, he will probably serve the term out, but I have an idea how. Speaking of pissing people off.... Here is a thought. Bannon is going to piss Trump off by taking shots publicly at Ivanka. It will energize and turn Trump against the alt-right. Let's remember, Tump is neither right or left, he is just Trump. So, with him no longer having the platform he ran (and won the election) on behind him, and realizing his chances of re-election on that platform are zero, he may go on and complete the term as an independent, which may just be the best thing that could happen to him. <br /><br />I don't want to pretend to even remotely like the guy. But here, we are traders first and political observers second. If Trump moves the markets we have to listen. No need to fight him. Let's see if what I said transpires, and if it does, there may just be a Dow 25K hat made before it's all over, and you know I am not an equity bull at these bloated levels. <br /><br />Another thought of mine is that it's not Dow but DXY that is the real gauge of his presidency. If that's the case, should his independent views take off (all of a sudden) and improve US economy somehow it would boost USD a lot, imho. This seems like an likely scenario after this week's CEO defections and the toll it may take on the biz confidence/sentiment and consequently the economy. But Trump winning the election was just as unlikely, and look at where we are with that.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3392193536704993082017-08-20T15:17:33.484+01:002017-08-20T15:17:33.484+01:00@checkmate
There are markets in just about everyt...@checkmate<br /><br />There are markets in just about everything...<br /><br />http://sports.betfair.com/?tmi=28074021<br /><br />Trump not completing his term currently trading at 1/1.85 = 54%<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49386281060634950682017-08-20T14:27:32.375+01:002017-08-20T14:27:32.375+01:00Checkmate,
I don't know the odds about Trump ...Checkmate,<br /><br />I don't know the odds about Trump completing his office term but , it is odds on I get to choose who I punt with otherwise I just don't get out bed, and for obvious reasons. I've learned the lesson of " The Art of I Don't Give A Fuck" how many guns you have. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68328763772092120612017-08-20T10:35:09.278+01:002017-08-20T10:35:09.278+01:00Trumps next book should be titled 'The Art of ...Trumps next book should be titled 'The Art of Pissing People Off'. Somewhere recently someone replied to a comment from me that Trump was backed up by some of the best minds in the world. If that was ever true at all it appears to me he as either fired them or they have opted to walk away recognising a crash and burn artist when they see one. Are there any odds on him not completing his term of office?checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85099501505802167612017-08-19T10:01:53.351+01:002017-08-19T10:01:53.351+01:00Some GMO stuff.
The S&P 500: Just say no.
ht...Some GMO stuff.<br /><br />The S&P 500: Just say no.<br /><br />https://www.cmgwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/the-s-p-500-just-say-no.pdfEddiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18011114950206155472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87060572877304923062017-08-18T19:42:51.483+01:002017-08-18T19:42:51.483+01:00Been a while since I posted. Distracted (and distr...Been a while since I posted. Distracted (and distractions to continue). Some thoughts in no particular order.<br /><br />Tripled a small position in short bund / long US 10Y when it widened to 1.82%. Worth mentioning that re-investments and issue limits mean the >10Y part of the German curve will see more ECB buying pressure next year compared to the 5-10Y. I assume euro strength (in particular, look at the TWI back to pre-QE level) will cause the ECB to go extra slow, maybe buying at a 40b/month pace for maybe all of 2018.<br /><br />Most Chinese data I look at continues to hold up. My bigger risk-on bets the past week or so have been in short USDRUB and long aluminum. I just sold some USDARS forward today for carry. Catalyst is the weekend primary, but gave it some time for the longs to clear out. We'll see. Short EURHUF seems interesting, maybe through options. There's a central bank meeting next week which will likely be dovish, but I there's an interesting story here -- a hot economy, rising inflation, FX de-leveraging that's mostly done, a very positive basic balance, a central bank that's played its best cards already to prevent currency appreciation. Reminds me a bit of the Thai Bhat. The BoT probably wishes USDTHB were 36 but it's 33.2 instead. Maybe the NBH will be a in similar spot 6 months from now with EURHUF at 290?<br /><br />The dollar continues to suck. There's a liquidity-based view articulated by some (see Nordea's latest piece, freely available, or oldschoolmacro.com) that says after the debt ceiling, we'll see USD liquidity tighten and the currency bounce. Maybe. But that same view also sees the US Treasury running down its cash balances (and therefore USD injecting into the financial system) by up to 150b if the debt ceiling debate goes down to the wire. So, still hard to get bullish the dollar. I think EURUSD maybe has another push up in it. Jackson Hole probably won't be the catalyst given the Reuters article this past week. Actually, interesting to see Yellen's speech will be on "financial stability." Maybe the Fed is quietly adjusting its view to one that acknowledges its role in creating bubbles/"financial instability." That certainly argues for some balance sheet unwind, and maybe more hikes than some anticipate, though I'm not really tempted by front-end steepeners.<br /><br />As always, enjoying your posts, Shawn. Thank you!<br /><br /><br /><br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62931447720129724972017-08-18T19:00:25.159+01:002017-08-18T19:00:25.159+01:00Special offers fast and reliable online credits be...Special offers fast and reliable online credits between particular in 24<br />You are looking for a serious and fast loan with a very affordable interest rate to buy your car, buy your home, set up your small business, or for personal needs but can not benefit from it from your bank, do not waste any more time. We offer you loans of all kinds at a very affordable and accessible interest rate. You just have to contact my financial advice on: jamesjesez58@gmail.com or crispusfinance@gmail.com<br />Thank you for choosing us.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08061491564984032281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48721748692306929342017-08-18T16:19:02.643+01:002017-08-18T16:19:02.643+01:00Robert Mueller, fear of Gary Cohen (or other key s...Robert Mueller, fear of Gary Cohen (or other key staff) potential resignation, Iran, NK... Are we reaching a critical mass of uncertainty? cowboyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04061774239878554001noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60425857143875223982017-08-18T16:13:37.448+01:002017-08-18T16:13:37.448+01:00Well I like your thoughtsWell I like your thoughtsAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15465583809802386246noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51465637962166417262017-08-18T03:57:02.832+01:002017-08-18T03:57:02.832+01:00Sorry guys, just putting thoughts out here. The Ir...Sorry guys, just putting thoughts out here. The Iran nuclear deal derailment story is picking up some steam. Crude is going to have a field day in that scenario. Saudis would love it, I bet. Seriously think WTI would fly up to $60 and catch a lot of players by surprise.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61224478108741388122017-08-17T20:27:14.746+01:002017-08-17T20:27:14.746+01:00KRE close below 52 opens 51.50 fight for its life....KRE close below 52 opens 51.50 fight for its life. If 51.50 doesn't hold I say it craps all the way down to 46 in one monthly candle.<br /><br />VIX is not up to 8/11 high yet, but SVXY is about to test the low it made on that day. Volume is perky. Brad, Chad and Thad may be pulling an all-nighter at the office.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57004607634091847312017-08-17T12:31:04.151+01:002017-08-17T12:31:04.151+01:00@abee, I hear you. XLE is a crazy animal once it g...@abee, I hear you. XLE is a crazy animal once it gets going. Needs to hold 62.30 and close above it on monthly. Pretty important level going back all the way to Dec 2006. Crude could have a face ripping rally like in Sep 2010 - Apr 2011 and drag all oil related assets up with it.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71065289290066938432017-08-16T20:43:47.714+01:002017-08-16T20:43:47.714+01:00XLE does look a little over done here, though I ne...XLE does look a little over done here, though I need an upside day to really get a buy signal. Crazy that it cannot rally at all. <br /><br />EZ equities bouncing but comming up to some resistance here. That along with HY/Russell is the tell, not FAANGabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2510238340044845572017-08-16T20:11:05.076+01:002017-08-16T20:11:05.076+01:00Picking up some XLE, XOP, OIH and CHK here. Way ov...Picking up some XLE, XOP, OIH and CHK here. Way overdone...IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67095417225243873932017-08-16T14:23:08.115+01:002017-08-16T14:23:08.115+01:00Beat and raise by TGT. Looks like WMT and TGT will...Beat and raise by TGT. Looks like WMT and TGT will run with it. I'll just stay with those two and try to ride them until some new wall shows up. TGT target $66 (pun totally intended).<br /><br />Almost stopped out of XRT, saved by the bell. Sticking with it too but boy, they really took them to the cleaners yesterday. AAP, DKS, COH... Phew!IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16528879555300535962017-08-15T20:34:57.451+01:002017-08-15T20:34:57.451+01:00CPI inflation has been ZERO last 6 months
https:/...CPI inflation has been ZERO last 6 months<br /><br />https://twitter.com/jmanfreddi/status/897235772461506563Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11693354139038135784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3394250502740789242017-08-15T14:36:25.626+01:002017-08-15T14:36:25.626+01:00Did I really mangle a sentence like that? I'll...Did I really mangle a sentence like that? I'll have to have a word with the editor. Thanks for pointing that out. EM Inflationistahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13376753485910252234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22859716891099975612017-08-15T13:07:43.818+01:002017-08-15T13:07:43.818+01:00"Only now do I think the market has it about ..."Only now do I think the market has it about right on the odds for a December hike at something like 30%....that is about what we have been conditioned to fade Fed governor pronouncements. "<br /><br />That's it for me. I've had it with these blogs guessing what is going on with the subject of rates in the Fed boardroom. Listen carefully, punters. The day that William Dudley flew over to the New York Fed boardroom meeting from the Atlanta Fed boardroom to get into the action of sizing up how much the Wall Street punters were willing to accommodate an increase in rates based on inflation data that would have any serious punter with an outlook further than a two mile horse race discard before the next Sunday's Fox game of the day. No, this rates market and the posturing from the boardroom players is an acknowledgement that the interest rates that affect the housing market and domestic currency is a LOSS LEADER and they know it.Goodbye. <br /><br />https://www.google.com.au/search?q=LOSS+LEADER&oq=LOSS+LEADER&aqs=chrome..69i57&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com