tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1129025466007658833..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: DrilledMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47306606965539384532009-10-06T08:14:48.367+01:002009-10-06T08:14:48.367+01:00China has to move. IMF wants it, US wants it, Kore...China has to move. IMF wants it, US wants it, Korea/Taiwan/Thailand/Malaysia/Japan want it. No one wants the RMB peg anymore unless you're a big dumbass SOE hooked on cheap credit. At some point its going to come down to trade sanctions or a timetable for appreciation. I doubt they open the capital account outright, it will be more Brazil/Russia like especially at first.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13163638263423389662009-10-06T08:12:33.194+01:002009-10-06T08:12:33.194+01:00Nemo, would you agree that China will probably nee...Nemo, would you agree that China will probably need to move on the RMB first, before other Asian countries? I can't see anyone else in Asia allowing meaningfull currency appreciation while the RMB is steady. But I could be wrong. <br /><br />The biggest problem I have with DGDF is that it is the most crowded trade on the planet. But tough to fightSkippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50216394903892078272009-10-06T08:01:56.770+01:002009-10-06T08:01:56.770+01:00I was thinking China was on its last legs, proppin...I was thinking China was on its last legs, propping itself up with pointless infrastructure spending, silly commodity stockpiling/speculation and bubbles inflated with forced loans from banks. However <a href="http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Clinton-Dines-China-BHP-Billiton-pd20091002-WF39D?OpenDocument" rel="nofollow">Clinton Dines disagrees.</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43103810912275546402009-10-06T07:25:53.275+01:002009-10-06T07:25:53.275+01:00all repeat after me: DGDF. Phils inflation print m...all repeat after me: DGDF. Phils inflation print means that SE Asian currencies are going to go apesh!t and allowing them to appreciate is one way to contain inflation. China will be tempted if ags and food prices start to pick up. <br /><br />I know this is strangely contrary to what the general view of this board is but its time to face the facts: the black hole that is the Western world's balance sheet is probably not going to take down everything with it. Positioning needs to be adjusted accordingly.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-92230094449031198412009-10-06T07:14:27.221+01:002009-10-06T07:14:27.221+01:00Oh, and the other point is the divergent policy tr...Oh, and the other point is the divergent policy trends for foreign exchange markets. Or in other words, de-coupling...hmmmSkippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83497453097640238302009-10-06T07:11:06.305+01:002009-10-06T07:11:06.305+01:00Until the IMF and Obama pull their thumb out of th...Until the IMF and Obama pull their thumb out of their ass on certain large countries I live in engaging in the perpetration of global imbalances I am staying in on this trade in FX.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32585307508177957822009-10-06T07:08:44.665+01:002009-10-06T07:08:44.665+01:00The most interesting aspect of the RBA's state...The most interesting aspect of the RBA's statement, in my view, was the big upgrade to trading partner growth, now seen close to trend in 2010 (key trading partners are China, Japan and Korea). The growth upgrade suggests a quicker path to "normal" from "emergency levels". I think they are a little optimistic myself, but it has certainly put a rocket under the AUD (perhaps along with the other anti-dollar news).Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78113960319810943342009-10-06T05:27:45.080+01:002009-10-06T05:27:45.080+01:00Bleh, gold has no central bank of its own.Bleh, gold has no central bank of its own.Crisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25264615630687082462009-10-06T05:26:16.386+01:002009-10-06T05:26:16.386+01:00Russia recently commented that it couldn't con...Russia recently commented that it couldn't convert reserves into AUD and CAD due to "liquidity constraints." <br /><br />NZD is a few % away from where the RBNZ intervened two years ago. Wouldn't be surprised to see RBA warnings if this thing breaks out.<br /><br />KRW is an interesting example of intervention amidst expectations of rate hikes soon as next month. GoldCrisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17500452197001547532009-10-06T04:50:00.993+01:002009-10-06T04:50:00.993+01:00Aussie rates wawawiwa.
Now, I wonder if this is ...Aussie rates wawawiwa. <br /><br />Now, I wonder if this is going to take some shine of some carry-free store of value trades like gold?Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91550302608312973462009-10-06T04:24:03.904+01:002009-10-06T04:24:03.904+01:00Haha, I wish we had Chappelle in there!Haha, I wish we had Chappelle in there!Crisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39834487206060149482009-10-06T04:19:56.815+01:002009-10-06T04:19:56.815+01:00Sorry, here it isSorry, <a href="http://www.viddler.com/explore/supremelegend/videos/35/" rel="nofollow"> here </a> it isNemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17415160094416548292009-10-06T03:55:24.351+01:002009-10-06T03:55:24.351+01:00And on that point:
http://www.viddler.com/explore...And on that point:<br /><br />http://www.viddler.com/explore/supremelegend/videos/35/Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8793269216630011762009-10-06T03:49:33.809+01:002009-10-06T03:49:33.809+01:00Well I think that someone is the Obama administrat...Well I think that someone is the Obama administration doing their level best to sabotage the country. Through the years the guy has cultivated around himself a rogue's gallery of Marxists, terrorists and terrorism supporters.<br /><br />Ever seen Seven Days in May? Hopefully some folks in the military have...Crisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83208058952387601262009-10-06T03:15:20.929+01:002009-10-06T03:15:20.929+01:00Viz that oil rumor, I just wonder how long these F...Viz that oil rumor, I just wonder how long these FX issues can be kept under wraps. Its kind of remarkable, did someone just defang America?Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67044329902552049692009-10-06T03:12:46.819+01:002009-10-06T03:12:46.819+01:00Phils inflation just printed a touch on the high s...Phils inflation just printed a touch on the high side.... agricultural commodities anyone? Its not just cocoa and sugar anymore.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79018108964237884382009-10-06T03:10:51.777+01:002009-10-06T03:10:51.777+01:00UK Independent story about moving oil pricing to a...UK Independent story about moving oil pricing to a basket of currencies plus gold credited with recent gold strength and a dollar sell off in Asia. No US response thus far.<br /><br />Report is sourced to "Gulf and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong." Seems a bit treacherous for these Gulf countries which depend on the US military for protection to make such a move, especially at this time.<br /><br />China is frequently criticized by MM and other for its aggressive FX "reserve management," this move seems to be of a similarly hostile tenor.Crisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84395241874154368752009-10-06T01:42:41.208+01:002009-10-06T01:42:41.208+01:00The Labor Department needs to raise their vol esti...The Labor Department needs to raise their vol estimates:<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aXoQJ14iSlWgstatic agehttp://capitalskew.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20227107626420955132009-10-05T23:39:40.495+01:002009-10-05T23:39:40.495+01:00Nic, odds have increased for a 25bp move at the Oc...Nic, odds have increased for a 25bp move at the October meeting today. I would not be surprised if the RBA will do more. As mentioned last week, the RBA Governor is a natural hawk and has been clear in his public comment that official rates are at an 'emergency level' at 3% (neutral would be considered 5% to 6%). Stevens hiked rates during the last federal election campaign (previously taboo) and eased by more than consensus on the way down (why not on the way up?). There has also been a lot of guidance from 'informed journalists' (the RBA tends to telegraph rate moves through key media contacts).<br /><br />LB, ;)Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47686951612824534692009-10-05T21:11:09.468+01:002009-10-05T21:11:09.468+01:00Were living a depression but the virtual reality, ...Were living a depression but the virtual reality, created by "them", keeps the faith. And all is abouth the faith.<br /><br />Faith in the authorities, the markets, the midia, the currencies or even in god.<br /><br />Enjoy as you can. ehehehehAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67495298517088379482009-10-05T20:47:36.590+01:002009-10-05T20:47:36.590+01:00Hey Nemo, watch the cost of food in China. Food pr...Hey Nemo, watch the cost of food in China. Food price inflation could be the tipping point for them.Professional Gringonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65152551314854340202009-10-05T19:44:04.565+01:002009-10-05T19:44:04.565+01:00How can earnings be a disappointment, when all you...How can earnings be a disappointment, when all you have to do is guide analysts to 2% below actual results a few days before the announcement?<br /><br />I don't know why 100% of companies don't outperform, given how easy it is.PJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41954616509659477682009-10-05T18:43:19.548+01:002009-10-05T18:43:19.548+01:00About AUD - do you think they will hike rates or w...About AUD - do you think they will hike rates or wait til next month?Nicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81939622040998272562009-10-05T18:29:19.623+01:002009-10-05T18:29:19.623+01:00Punter gone early, Skippy, now it looks like game ...Punter gone early, Skippy, now it looks like game on Oz v the Kiwis [this is not a post on AUD:NZD]leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33190085524644505942009-10-05T17:06:22.247+01:002009-10-05T17:06:22.247+01:00Incredibly it looks like gold might make a run for...Incredibly it looks like gold might make a run for it after some post-G20 dollar selling. Even the dollar-yen couldn't rally about 90 at all on escalating MoF rhetoric.<br /><br />Risk off = yen strength<br />Dollar off = yen strength<br />Sound of screaming exporters caught offsides = pricelessCrisis Managementnoreply@blogger.com