tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1027171853709450687..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Anecdotal evidenceMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1479621586255968982008-08-29T23:18:00.000+01:002008-08-29T23:18:00.000+01:00My personal take:Yes, the dollar bottom seems to b...My personal take:<BR/>Yes, the dollar bottom seems to be in place, but I'm waiting for a bull shakeout right now.<BR/>The overall position has switched to long dollar, but there is no conviction, none at all.normal beinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13450117693646115155noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82491990739215166432008-08-29T11:15:00.000+01:002008-08-29T11:15:00.000+01:00Good to know that your disposable GBP are still fl...Good to know that your disposable GBP are still flowing! Had a similar anecdotal experience last night in Birmingham (UK). Keep up the invaluable commentary MM. Cheers, JLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65877501860294460172008-08-29T10:34:00.000+01:002008-08-29T10:34:00.000+01:00Point taken on the quiet period, though the train ...Point taken on the quiet period, though the train has been unusually un-empty in the mornings, FWIW, and on the way to the restaurant we drove past a couple of other friends who were out for the evening as well...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5327842517153227452008-08-29T09:02:00.000+01:002008-08-29T09:02:00.000+01:00"What does it say about the state of the UK consum..."What does it say about the state of the UK consumer if they don't have the cash for a cup of bleeding coffee"<BR/><BR/>It says they are the same shape as their American counterparts are doing but don't let that get in the way of a good story.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56798920156667497762008-08-29T07:20:00.000+01:002008-08-29T07:20:00.000+01:00I am not ordering any more iguana taquitos when I ...I am not ordering any more iguana taquitos when I visit Tehautitlacan again. Unless I can get some Starbucks to wash it down. The worst roasters in the world. Let's assume it was your firm that drove out the other diners, however you want to be sure. Leave the Millwall jerseys at home next time, and leave the firm there as well, however keep the same noise level. That will be the control group. <BR/><BR/>I am noticing much volatility 'noise' on the hourly graphs of the big ones - eur/jpy, eur/usd, usd/chf. I am amazed by the power of Uncle Buck, and see this as a Novemeber 4 trade. Election of 06 also saw a dollar dump in the price of gasoline, and right back by Spring.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19869073851624666152008-08-28T22:02:00.000+01:002008-08-28T22:02:00.000+01:00Agree with the comments about the world being on v...Agree with the comments about the world being on vacation. Things seem so quiet that it is a bit eerie. I feel sorry for the folks at Lehman who are probably some of the few working quite hard this week, as they prepare their mid Sept release. That can't be a fun undertaking (pardon the pun.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34153891259916633182008-08-28T21:49:00.000+01:002008-08-28T21:49:00.000+01:00My dear MM, Before you cry in your calvados about ...My dear MM, <BR/>Before you cry in your calvados about the fate of your local frenchie haunt, remember that it is the last week of August. For you to get a true anecdotal picture (is there such a thing anyway?) of local economic standing, one must wait until Monday ... or maybe Tuesday if you're in the States. <BR/>This week between the U.K. bank holiday last Monday and this week's upcoming Labor Day Holiday is truly a lost week. Perspective ... I hope your cold is on the mend.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86175721060316934092008-08-28T20:22:00.000+01:002008-08-28T20:22:00.000+01:00So keep the steepener on and ride out the negative...So keep the steepener on and ride out the negative carry?? Pray they don't look to Trichet for guidance...? Where does EURGBP go if they ease?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8482000388150579842008-08-28T20:18:00.000+01:002008-08-28T20:18:00.000+01:00Until they actually raise rates the buck is going ...Until they actually raise rates the buck is going sideways, but may make very small new lows.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05819776376553445235noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10954104791459871992008-08-28T19:43:00.000+01:002008-08-28T19:43:00.000+01:00Anon @ 2.29, it's a bit scary when market guys are...Anon @ 2.29, it's a bit scary when market guys are forced to work at a coffee shop for the health cover.<BR/><BR/>Anon @ 3.32, living in England, where the airports are run by the Spanish, the power is supplied by the Germans and French, the football team is managed by an Italian, and the government dominated by Scotsmen, it wasn't hard to see the direction the US would take. (I have fond memories of Alligator Alley...the cops there used to turn a pretty blind eye to notions like "speed limits".)<BR/><BR/>Anon @ 5.29, see the post from August 20 entitled <A HREF="http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2008/08/buck-up.html" REL="nofollow">Buck Up</A>, which elucidates my thoughts on the $.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16579973306534747312008-08-28T17:29:00.000+01:002008-08-28T17:29:00.000+01:00I live in the US but have already read the UK pres...I live in the US but have already read the UK press daily, once it became available online. The ink given to UK ec woes is substantial , maybe even more than in the US press. Re the USD, what is your interpretation of its U turn? Is there a change in fundamentals? Certainly, within the US, things look rather grim, even to an optimist. On the political front, I'm not sure that help is on the way. Fanfare aside, in terms of economic repair work this election has been described as the evil of two lessers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24401521056857098322008-08-28T15:32:00.000+01:002008-08-28T15:32:00.000+01:00Your posts are always ahead of the curve. I was r...Your posts are always ahead of the curve. I was reminded this today when I read an article about US infrastructure sales (Midway airport in Chicago and Alligator Alley -- a highway in Florida.) The aritcle also confirmed what I had heard that ex DOT folks were being recruited by IBs to advise on these transactions. Infrastructure sales are off and running, just like in the Great Depression in the US when entire towns were sold. MM saw it coming.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32500842191536322492008-08-28T14:29:00.000+01:002008-08-28T14:29:00.000+01:00MM- Entertaining and useful post, as always. Simil...MM- Entertaining and useful post, as always. Similar anecdotal evidence abounds here, on the other side of the pond, outside of NYC. Belt tightening is the order of the day. For those in the financial sector, belt tightening is a welcome alternative to job loss. I even have heard tell of ex BS folks who snagged jobs at 'Bucks so that they can get health care coverage.The exception to this "less is more" reality seems to be those with Euros to spend who still behave as if their currency is burning a hole in their pockets when they are within range of anything priced in USD. Best-- AnonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43268813641104365862008-08-28T13:00:00.000+01:002008-08-28T13:00:00.000+01:00GSM, I work in London but live about 20 miles outs...GSM, I work in London but live about 20 miles outside.<BR/><BR/>Anon, Caffe Nero is my preferred purveyor of the devil's brew, but sadly there isn't one along my direct route into work in the morning. In any event, even Starbucks is tasty compared the the sludge that I buy every day at 6.30 am at my local train station.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86334705169811938622008-08-28T12:21:00.000+01:002008-08-28T12:21:00.000+01:00Regarding the starbucks observation:At least they ...Regarding the starbucks observation:<BR/>At least they still go to starbucks, be on the lookout for empty starbucks in the coming months. Or perhaps there is simply no alternative, a london resident describing starbucks brown stuff as "coffee" is anecdotal evidence that the coffee on offer in the UK capital is the worst in Europe.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73983026045651501142008-08-28T11:42:00.000+01:002008-08-28T11:42:00.000+01:00Hi, you are based out of London?gsmani@gmail.comHi, you are based out of London?<BR/><BR/>gsmani@gmail.comgsm_73https://www.blogger.com/profile/14463269875250565829noreply@blogger.com