No no no you must understand the difference. 'Secure'only nicked a billion quid from innocent investors. They at no time manipulated the FX market so their behaviour is perfectly acceptable.
And while we are talking a about the Damn Fine culture we are living in then stick this in your pipe and smoke it .. UK fine British American Tobacco for selling lots of cigarettes to Belgium because people might smuggle them back to the UK.. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30038328
Why not fine UK car manufacturers for supplying cars to France because people may drive them back?
The minutes from the central bankers has been nothing but a case of fraud thats had an underlying boost of liquitiy for months to maintain the fallacy of a committee that wouldnt be stupid enough to throw good money after bad. But what the committee didnt see is that some sectors of the market can behave as I would call it ...like " crazy pussy"..once in for a penny...in for a pound. The players taking part can never stay away from the trough for long in case of falling out of stride with the herd ...watch those docos when the younger one starts falling behind the pack...they begin to feel neglected and hungry and before you know it their sabataging the survival skills of the herd...it is of absolute importance to maintain some level of parturiency within the herd. Sorry about the grammer...its my fault
Sorry guys , thats not the last of it , this is the last of it. You what really keeps me up at night? Watching in slow motion the central banks bottom bitch progessively , and the give away was the backdated question, was already palming me off having aquired liquiditytraders to hedge any collapse in market confidence ..the making of a truly wonderful central bank bottom bitch if there ever was one...come on, do you really think it could have thought that far out alone? This was well thought out as the taps kept opening wider the game escalated. The end result is me with hoof marks on my back as the herd trample over me to get to the liquidity trough. How that workout for ya!
Let sentence be passed, then (and it will be the most awful as): You are condemned to copy all the works of Jane Austen by hand....
By the way, NDX price action still very reminiscent of Nov 99....the last domino which hasn't fallen yet : the Stoxx shorters... Their blood will carry those indices to new highs; considering this morning's stats, we might have a Dec surprise from the ECB; Otherwise, if the staff in charge of studying unconventional measures is still asleep, it will be first week of Jan; I hate to think about the next inflation stats with the rout in oil and , more generally, commodities. Eur/ Y won't help either Best
Given DX 88 today and evidence of tumbling demand for oil and gasoline, how long before we see the first signs of shonky US economic data? For reasons we have discussed here the engine of the US economy (consumer =70%) remains very weak.
Next week sees a raft of US macro data, and signs of weakness there might find quite a few FX punters caught offside. If so are some of those year end performance chaser traders also going to get burned? We are back to the Impossible Trinity again, that can't last long. Liking US fixed income here, we see more signs of slow growth ahead.
LB, if you think the decline in energy prices has much to do with a US demand issue, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.
If anything, the decline will be a boost to US households...I've just locked in a heating oil rate, for example, that will save me about $1200 from last year if we assume identical volume usage.
You think that sort of windfall won't help main street?
@Lb : that would guaranty a return of the "bad news is good news" crowd; As previously mentioned, I strongly advocate reading the costantino brescianti turroni book on post WWI germany; one thing which is striking: everyone was amazed that stocks kept going up through bad economic news and civil war in silesia (rings a bell?) Best
That's all absolutely true, MM, as long as Main Street continues to have employment. Chinese demand and USD are the main reasons for energy price declines. Still, someone pointed out here this week that RBOB is falling even faster than wtic and that did make me wonder. Refiner stocks are also being sold now, and that reminds me of 2008 when everyone said at first they should be bought b/c of falling input costs.
The US economy is still fragile, and the very rapid rise in USD may well be already having some effects at the margin on the order books in a variety of industries, in addition to those involved in the oil patch.
Comparisons to 2008 are asinine, usually, but the USD spike and the fall in commodities and carnage in EM equities are three phenomena that are being repeated. A modest two quarter US economic slowdown wouldn't actually be the biggest shocker if you think about it. Most of the growth we have seen in the last few years has been generated by currency manipulation, anyway. 1937 isn't the worst analogue, you know.
1937 was different in that the US changed tack in its fiscal policy rather than monetary policy, but the results aren't necessarily different. Rapid rises in the value of one's currency for whatever reason usually have a deflationary effect.
Probably not totally insignificant, I won't disagree; still fixed investments and credit creation stats are the key for a late third stage ignition; add a bit of M&A fever next year and some serious money flows into the US (same as after the 1997/1998 EM scare) and the cocktail will be ready for the rollercoaster of a lifetime
I would concur that you need credit expansion for animal spirits to truly return. By the same token, in the absence of a credit expansion (and consequent bust), calls for any sort of spectacular meltdown (it's 2007 again, innit!!!) look well wide of the mark.
i spend every winter in Hawaii - there is a developing misery here that is striking amid such postcard backdrop
not even Hawaii can hold its head above the perfect water with the gabillions spent by tourists. Wealth distribution simply doesn't work
the US is a total disaster in infrastructures - for the same level of debt at least Spain, Uk France upped airports, top railways bridges and roads
you see US national debt level vs. the level of equipment here and think you're in Hungary at best, or Tunisia
to my knowledge noone has taken a nation-wide stance exposure decrying the hold up of the century in the US. Where the fuck is the voice of a generation
It's all about the cost of unionized jobs and environmental regulations. This story on the 500 million dollar paint job of a bridge in New York and various regulations are a good example:
"City prevailing wage law dictates that painters using power tools on city public works projects earn $51.50 an hour, plus a "supplemental benefit rate" of $29.16 an hour. Time-and-a-half overtime kicks in after seven hour days, or on weekends."
/DX rally has pretty much nothing to do with measured in/deflation in the US. As hard as it is to stomach now is the time to start or add to commodities positions for the time when M2 velocity does pick up.
See here: https://mikeashton.wordpress.com/2014/11/06/dollar-rally-does-not-demand-deflation-duh/
I agree that SP needs a correction and USD is too damn high. But do we really need to repeat those dooming predictions in every post? The strong dollar and weak gasoline price will certainly help retails in this holiday season, while hurting export.
Profit margins at multinationals probably are still good given lower energy price more than offseting strong dollar.
My only question is how much of this low gas price is priced in the current levels of USD and SP? Judging from forex and sp movement right now, I would guess that not much room is left for price levels to catch on the 'good' future.
It's quite hilarious... Frankly how can you send some cash to Cyprus? He should be banned from being a doctor.
It makes me think of a greater version - quite common in Ivory Coast where I grew up... The "bill multiplicator"... in french "un marabout multiplicateur de billet"... He washes the bills with a magic dark liquid and you get 10 times the initial bills. So usually the marabout does it with 50$ and puts 500$ of his own money, then the victim comes back one week later with 5000$... :-) See http://news.abidjan.net/h/491516.htmlfor a recent case, but it is very very old stuff.
I don't think lower-oil-price-is-good math is as easy as people think. Lets use previous posters math of ~140B/yr in savings to the consumer. Assuming stable output of ~10million/day thats $70B/yr in reduced revenues for domestic production. Consider that E&P, like much of manufacturing jobs has a multiplier on sales through the entire economy, probably at least 2x and potentially as much as 4-5x (when you consider job creation, capex, community development, supporting roles etc). It does not take much to have net benefits of lower prices have a net negative effect on the economy.
Things might be different if increased retail was buying stuff locally sourced, but thats just not the world we live in. The multiplier on retail is going to be substantially lower than the multiplier on production.
The real question here is do these prices (or at what price) do the plans and projects for US E&P get reduced, and how much. If oil settles at $50, its probably a disaster for the industry. $80, my gut says its fine and the technology curve for shale will allow profitable adaptation, but future projects like TMS are likely out.
Ladies and Gentlemen there will be no closing argument today due the state of amazement of stupidity witnessed among our commentors and you executioner of that very same stupidity.
Dead right, in fact. Already well loaded with commodity stocks, including EMs, and happy to accumulate more. Deflation/disinflation scares are always an outstanding opportunity to own real assets and the means of production at bargain prices.
Still, it is painful to watch DX creep higher. We threw in the towel on shorting IWM for the time being. One can fight the market at times, but not theta.
Btw, anons. LB is not a doom and gloom artist or a cheerleader, but simply reflects what he sees in middle income America, which isn't booming, or crashing, but stumbling along as best it can.
Quite sad story. The irony here is that this "company" was not regulated (obviously), so not within the remit of the FCA, the SEC etc, but the actions of the regulators (including, and especially the recent fines) seem to have the opposite of the desired effect (i.e. to restore confidence in the financial services industry). For example I read in the article: "David Kane, a Houston oil industry technical support manager, says he found his way to Secure because he had stopped trusting bankers and brokers after the 2008 financial crisis. " !!! Can you believe that? He doesn't trust (regulated) bankers and brokers, so he hands over his money to a non-regulated ponzi scheme. Now imagine the average Joe reading about the huge manipulation of the FX market by the big banks and thinking: "Hmm, I better not exchange my money for holiday money with the bank, they will rig the market and I will lose loads, I better go to the bloke down the street or to securefxrates.com".
That said, I can't believe the money is gone. They didn't transact in cash, but through banks. Yes, in remote countries, etc., but still within the international banking system. I'm sure the money can and will be traced and I hope the victims will get at least some rebate on the very steep tuition fees they paid.
"By the same token, in the absence of a credit expansion (and consequent bust), calls for any sort of spectacular meltdown (it's 2007 again, innit!!!) look well wide of the mark"
Do corporates' buybacks (especially funded with debt issuance) count for credit expansion? Arguably this accounts for a significant part of the last couple years' rally. Could we be in wave 5 already?
Back to mr t and oil. I agree that it is complex and those money multiplier arguments are well structured. But if we are thinking the function of good or bad for econ high or low oil prices then cant we just argue ad absurdum? ie would the economy be better off if oil was free or worse off.. and in reverses if it was billions a barrel? On top end substitution kicks but on the free oil side i really cant get my head around how a whole society if worse off if energy is free.. thats a utopian dream isnt it?
Ok.. MM.. this comment page now full ... new post please.. just a full stop will do. As i note post to comment word ratio is pretty impressive towards the commenters.. perhaps like a performance from a maestro you just come on take a bow.. walk off and the noise of applause and chatter from the cheap seats goes on for hours..
@Polemic, I'm with you. In short run, free oil would cause some dislocation/disruption to the economy, no doubt. But in general, paying for energy is just a drag on the overall economy, and we'd be much better off if all our energy costs went to zero.
Let me honest with the market and its family of technical etfs, I don't won't to get into a fight over which way the trend is going...but this one no one will win.
To the blog administrator, well you wouldn't have to delete posts if the driving force behind this bull market calls it a day and cancelled all offers at buy the dips. For what it's worth..it's no good and we should accept we are wrong and withdrawal to the bench and wait for a better opportunity.
I've warned you before. Pointless profanity-laden nonsense is not welcome, and will now be deleted as I see fit. It adds less than nothing and I don't want it.
Well then, changing the topic slightly, now we know why Kuroda brought out his huge bazooka. Japan is in recession, and not an inverted yield curve in sight. We did warn you that things were a little different on the other side of the looking glass.
Interestingly the result of a negative GDP shocker was a stronger yen after bouncing off 117 and now we are seeing Spoos sold as well. Curiouser and curiouser.
1) Change the strength of your preferred intoxicant. 2) Try writing without one analogy or metaphor. Keep what ever message you are trying to impart clear and precise, because not everyone is from the planet you are currently on.
At this rate it looks as though the men in white coats will have to take you away even if MM doesn't do it just for this blog.
Okay, KISS, I'll apply the keep it simple stupid method. This market is a great teacher..and thinking it isn't will make a clown out of ya.Now we don't won't to be a family of clowns here do we?
When this bull run ends , and it will end one day..if your not going to pick up a skerrick of knowledge yourself then don't go and send any garbage trade ideas my way.
We don't want to lose you permanently, but at times it can be a bit tricky to decipher your wisdom. Let's all keep it simple and not get too excitable, and it will be one big Macro comment family....
LB, I'm trying elucidate that punters should not send garbage tips into my inbox if they themselves are not willing to show up and explain why I should back it..which as a matter of fact the last tip failure was due to my faulty selection process..but hey, I've paid for it and there's no need or want to have another try at..it's a dromedary if I've ever backed one. If they keep sending this tip to my inbox ,the bounce back is going to get harder and harder.
So anyone else seen the Lucy Kellaway sour grapes attack on FX traders in the FT that seems to revolve around apply 1980's social behaviour to her FX memories in a mkt she didn't get and criticising the traders grammar?
I'm cleaning the inbox of all traces of dromedaries. No more losing energy and effort when it's better served elsewhere.. If someone doesn't like it that I'm not willing to saddle up and ride along on a dromedary..bad luck, you know my inbox address.
In other news, Brent looks weak again today, and it's Mourning in America as the magnificent locomotive that is the US economy had a -0.1% IP print.
Still, the USD continues its run unabated as Dr Aghi once again wins the Eurovision Jawboning Contest this morning with his entry "Get Down On It, Got My Bazooka Workin'".
One wonders how well Ms. Kellaway would look if one were able to monitor all of communications (on and off the record) over a period of years and cherry pick the worst of them.
Again, I would love for the hand-wringing moralists to come up with an actual number for the true societal cost of the FX fixing scandal.
The answer to that question will make you toss and turn! The BOJ/GPIF move is simple. They need to exchange low yielding JGBs for high yielding foreign assets to kickstart the income balance on the current account ... only way to do that without a bond market crash is for the BOJ to do the bid ...
Expect them to up the allocation of foreign assets to much higher than 25% in the next 12 months. See it is a hedge fund with its own printing press ... essentially, that is what it is.
Country A buying Country B's stock market is the modern version of mutually assured destruction. It's only natural that country-B is the worlds military superpower.
Yes.. I ve just been rereading and scorecarding an old Japan post from spring 2013 when we questioned if targetting inflation would work. http://polemics-pains.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/japan-well-thats-what-happens-when-you.html
"if they were actually serious about stopping fraudulent behaviour?"
ReplyDeleteIs this a trick question?
-Whammer
No no no you must understand the difference. 'Secure'only nicked a billion quid from innocent investors. They at no time manipulated the FX market so their behaviour is perfectly acceptable.
ReplyDeleteWhammer, it was a trick question, you bet?
ReplyDeleteIf anyone noticed it was backdated and set up by the bottom bitch of the Central Bank. Do your research.
And while we are talking a about the Damn Fine culture we are living in then stick this in your pipe and smoke it .. UK fine British American Tobacco for selling lots of cigarettes to Belgium because people might smuggle them back to the UK..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30038328
Why not fine UK car manufacturers for supplying cars to France because people may drive them back?
The minutes from the central bankers has been nothing but a case of fraud thats had an underlying boost of liquitiy for months to maintain the fallacy of a committee that wouldnt be stupid enough to throw good money after bad. But what the committee didnt see is that some sectors of the market can behave as I would call it ...like " crazy pussy"..once in for a penny...in for a pound. The players taking part can never stay away from the trough for long in case of falling out of stride with the herd ...watch those docos when the younger one starts falling behind the pack...they begin to feel neglected and hungry and before you know it their sabataging the survival skills of the herd...it is of absolute importance to maintain some level of parturiency within the herd. Sorry about the grammer...its my fault
ReplyDeleteLast but not least to the trapping warehouse in NYC liquidity central bank..PRO COCK TEASERS
ReplyDeleteSorry guys , thats not the last of it , this is the last of it. You what really keeps me up at night? Watching in slow motion the central banks bottom bitch progessively , and the give away was the backdated question, was already palming me off having aquired liquiditytraders to hedge any collapse in market confidence
ReplyDelete..the making of a truly wonderful central bank bottom bitch if there ever was one...come on, do you really think it could have thought that far out alone?
This was well thought out as the taps kept opening wider the game escalated. The end result is me with hoof marks on my back as the herd trample over me to get to the liquidity trough. How that workout for ya!
would be more interesting (probably?) in english....
ReplyDeleteNo. I rest my case your honor.
ReplyDeleteLet sentence be passed, then (and it will be the most awful as):
ReplyDeleteYou are condemned to copy all the works of Jane Austen by hand....
By the way, NDX price action still very reminiscent of Nov 99....the last domino which hasn't fallen yet : the Stoxx shorters...
Their blood will carry those indices to new highs;
considering this morning's stats, we might have a Dec surprise from the ECB;
Otherwise, if the staff in charge of studying unconventional measures is still asleep, it will be first week of Jan;
I hate to think about the next inflation stats with the rout in oil and , more generally, commodities.
Eur/ Y won't help either
Best
My simple question for the day:
ReplyDeleteGiven DX 88 today and evidence of tumbling demand for oil and gasoline, how long before we see the first signs of shonky US economic data? For reasons we have discussed here the engine of the US economy (consumer =70%) remains very weak.
Next week sees a raft of US macro data, and signs of weakness there might find quite a few FX punters caught offside. If so are some of those year end performance chaser traders also going to get burned? We are back to the Impossible Trinity again, that can't last long. Liking US fixed income here, we see more signs of slow growth ahead.
LB, if you think the decline in energy prices has much to do with a US demand issue, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.
ReplyDeleteIf anything, the decline will be a boost to US households...I've just locked in a heating oil rate, for example, that will save me about $1200 from last year if we assume identical volume usage.
You think that sort of windfall won't help main street?
@Lb : that would guaranty a return of the "bad news is good news" crowd;
ReplyDeleteAs previously mentioned, I strongly advocate reading the costantino brescianti turroni book on post WWI germany; one thing which is striking: everyone was amazed that stocks kept going up through bad economic news and civil war in silesia (rings a bell?)
Best
That's all absolutely true, MM, as long as Main Street continues to have employment. Chinese demand and USD are the main reasons for energy price declines. Still, someone pointed out here this week that RBOB is falling even faster than wtic and that did make me wonder. Refiner stocks are also being sold now, and that reminds me of 2008 when everyone said at first they should be bought b/c of falling input costs.
ReplyDeleteThe US economy is still fragile, and the very rapid rise in USD may well be already having some effects at the margin on the order books in a variety of industries, in addition to those involved in the oil patch.
Comparisons to 2008 are asinine, usually, but the USD spike and the fall in commodities and carnage in EM equities are three phenomena that are being repeated. A modest two quarter US economic slowdown wouldn't actually be the biggest shocker if you think about it. Most of the growth we have seen in the last few years has been generated by currency manipulation, anyway. 1937 isn't the worst analogue, you know.
@ MM: 18.9 M barrels / day on which we save 20$ ,during a year ; that's a grand total of 138 Bln $ in a 17 Tln economy....
ReplyDeletesignificant?
1937 was different in that the US changed tack in its fiscal policy rather than monetary policy, but the results aren't necessarily different. Rapid rises in the value of one's currency for whatever reason usually have a deflationary effect.
ReplyDeleteAnon @ 12.57; insofar as that works out to roughly a 1% boost to personal consumption, the answer is 'yes.'
ReplyDeleteProbably not totally insignificant, I won't disagree; still fixed investments and credit creation stats are the key for a late third stage ignition;
ReplyDeleteadd a bit of M&A fever next year and some serious money flows into the US (same as after the 1997/1998 EM scare) and the cocktail will be ready for the rollercoaster of a lifetime
Best
I would concur that you need credit expansion for animal spirits to truly return. By the same token, in the absence of a credit expansion (and consequent bust), calls for any sort of spectacular meltdown (it's 2007 again, innit!!!) look well wide of the mark.
ReplyDeleteAcc to Citi, there’s been a metaphorical eruption in EURCHF turnover over the past hour on EBS. Now at 1.2014.
ReplyDeleteDespite the end of QE, asset purchases are far from over. Over the next five years, the Fed will purchase $1.068 trillion in Treasuries.
ReplyDeleteImport Price Index DOWN 1.8% YoY in Oct , Sept revised lower from NEGATIVE 0.9% to NEGATIVE 1.1%
ReplyDeletei spend every winter in Hawaii - there is a developing misery here that is striking amid such postcard backdrop
ReplyDeletenot even Hawaii can hold its head above the perfect water with the gabillions spent by tourists. Wealth distribution simply doesn't work
the US is a total disaster in infrastructures - for the same level of debt at least Spain, Uk France upped airports, top railways bridges and roads
you see US national debt level vs. the level of equipment here and think you're in Hungary at best, or Tunisia
to my knowledge noone has taken a nation-wide stance exposure decrying the hold up of the century in the US. Where the fuck is the voice of a generation
Jesse café américain is one of the best blogs out there (with you dude) and he does just that, decrying the pillage of American by its cronies and oligarchs, day after day
Amen
Aloha
Nico G
ReplyDeleteIt's all about the cost of unionized jobs and environmental regulations. This story on the 500 million dollar paint job of a bridge in New York and various regulations are a good example:
"City prevailing wage law dictates that painters using power tools on city public works projects earn $51.50 an hour, plus a "supplemental benefit rate" of $29.16 an hour. Time-and-a-half overtime kicks in after seven hour days, or on weekends."
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/500m-paint-job-bridge-brooklyn-bridge-cost-spruce-article-1.179265
Hard to imagine how much of that 500 million will simply disappear via fraud especially if a couple of ex Citi traders are steering the contracts.
@ LB at 1:17 PM
ReplyDelete/DX rally has pretty much nothing to do with measured in/deflation in the US. As hard as it is to stomach now is the time to start or add to commodities positions for the time when M2 velocity does pick up.
See here: https://mikeashton.wordpress.com/2014/11/06/dollar-rally-does-not-demand-deflation-duh/
I agree that SP needs a correction and USD is too damn high. But do we really need to repeat those dooming predictions in every post? The strong dollar and weak gasoline price will certainly help retails in this holiday season, while hurting export.
ReplyDeleteProfit margins at multinationals probably are still good given lower energy price more than offseting strong dollar.
My only question is how much of this low gas price is priced in the current levels of USD and SP? Judging from forex and sp movement right now, I would guess that not much room is left for price levels to catch on the 'good' future.
It's quite hilarious...
ReplyDeleteFrankly how can you send some cash to Cyprus? He should be banned from being a doctor.
It makes me think of a greater version - quite common in Ivory Coast where I grew up...
The "bill multiplicator"... in french "un marabout multiplicateur de billet"... He washes the bills with a magic dark liquid and you get 10 times the initial bills. So usually the marabout does it with 50$ and puts 500$ of his own money, then the victim comes back one week later with 5000$... :-)
See http://news.abidjan.net/h/491516.htmlfor a recent case, but it is very very old stuff.
Macrott, you can riddle me with bullets I'll never say yes to that. I fuckin choose who and what trade I go in. NO?
ReplyDeleteNow I know why Bill Gross was so upset to leave... 260m. And I dont feel so bad for Mo either
ReplyDeleteCah-Ching!
MM, have you considered Newport ;-)
I don't think lower-oil-price-is-good math is as easy as people think. Lets use previous posters math of ~140B/yr in savings to the consumer. Assuming stable output of ~10million/day thats $70B/yr in reduced revenues for domestic production. Consider that E&P, like much of manufacturing jobs has a multiplier on sales through the entire economy, probably at least 2x and potentially as much as 4-5x (when you consider job creation, capex, community development, supporting roles etc). It does not take much to have net benefits of lower prices have a net negative effect on the economy.
ReplyDeleteThings might be different if increased retail was buying stuff locally sourced, but thats just not the world we live in. The multiplier on retail is going to be substantially lower than the multiplier on production.
The real question here is do these prices (or at what price) do the plans and projects for US E&P get reduced, and how much. If oil settles at $50, its probably a disaster for the industry. $80, my gut says its fine and the technology curve for shale will allow profitable adaptation, but future projects like TMS are likely out.
Thanks bottom bitch.
ReplyDeleteYou know how to set a market between players
WAS TIZIONSIAustralia's biggest coal exporter #Glencore will suspend coal business for three weeks THUS STALLYGO
ReplyDeleteLadies and Gentlemen there will be no closing argument today due the state of amazement of stupidity witnessed among our commentors and you executioner of that very same stupidity.
ReplyDelete@Marshall Jung.
ReplyDeleteDead right, in fact. Already well loaded with commodity stocks, including EMs, and happy to accumulate more. Deflation/disinflation scares are always an outstanding opportunity to own real assets and the means of production at bargain prices.
Still, it is painful to watch DX creep higher. We threw in the towel on shorting IWM for the time being. One can fight the market at times, but not theta.
Btw, anons. LB is not a doom and gloom artist or a cheerleader, but simply reflects what he sees in middle income America, which isn't booming, or crashing, but stumbling along as best it can.
Quite sad story. The irony here is that this "company" was not regulated (obviously), so not within the remit of the FCA, the SEC etc, but the actions of the regulators (including, and especially the recent fines) seem to have the opposite of the desired effect (i.e. to restore confidence in the financial services industry).
ReplyDeleteFor example I read in the article: "David Kane, a Houston oil industry technical support manager, says he found his way to Secure because he had stopped trusting bankers and brokers after the 2008 financial crisis. " !!!
Can you believe that? He doesn't trust (regulated) bankers and brokers, so he hands over his money to a non-regulated ponzi scheme. Now imagine the average Joe reading about the huge manipulation of the FX market by the big banks and thinking: "Hmm, I better not exchange my money for holiday money with the bank, they will rig the market and I will lose loads, I better go to the bloke down the street or to securefxrates.com".
That said, I can't believe the money is gone. They didn't transact in cash, but through banks. Yes, in remote countries, etc., but still within the international banking system. I'm sure the money can and will be traced and I hope the victims will get at least some rebate on the very steep tuition fees they paid.
ReplyDelete"By the same token, in the absence of a credit expansion (and consequent bust), calls for any sort of spectacular meltdown (it's 2007 again, innit!!!) look well wide of the mark"
ReplyDeleteDo corporates' buybacks (especially funded with debt issuance) count for credit expansion? Arguably this accounts for a significant part of the last couple years' rally. Could we be in wave 5 already?
Back to mr t and oil. I agree that it is complex and those money multiplier arguments are well structured. But if we are thinking the function of good or bad for econ high or low oil prices then cant we just argue ad absurdum? ie would the economy be better off if oil was free or worse off.. and in reverses if it was billions a barrel? On top end substitution kicks but on the free oil side i really cant get my head around how a whole society if worse off if energy is free.. thats a utopian dream isnt it?
ReplyDeleteOk.. MM.. this comment page now full ... new post please.. just a full stop will do. As i note post to comment word ratio is pretty impressive towards the commenters.. perhaps like a performance from a maestro you just come on take a bow.. walk off and the noise of applause and chatter from the cheap seats goes on for hours..
ReplyDelete@Polemic, I'm with you. In short run, free oil would cause some dislocation/disruption to the economy, no doubt. But in general, paying for energy is just a drag on the overall economy, and we'd be much better off if all our energy costs went to zero.
ReplyDelete-Whammer
After market analysis dictates that no fixed income is allowed back in the books, son believe me that realm is nothing but a jonah.
ReplyDeleteLet me honest with the market and its family of technical etfs, I don't won't to get into a fight over which way the trend is going...but this one no one will win.
ReplyDeleteIt is fairly obvious that 'they' set up this fraudulent website purely so there would be a clamour to regulate more, especially t'internet. ;-)
ReplyDeleteSing it: Macro MacroMan...... I want to be a Macroman.
ReplyDeleteSo. MA-Cro
ReplyDeleteI do that everyday. Surprised Pol hasn't done something with it already.
[or maybe i missed it]
Weakest currency YTD? Yen? Euro? Neither.
ReplyDeleteSwedish krona ( -13.4% )
Goldman: S&P companies will pay out $1.1 trillion to investors in the form of stock buybacks (up 18% YoY) and dividends (Up 7% YoY) in 2015.
ReplyDeleteHuh? to what? which song? .. you hum it and I'll parody it .. but dunno which one you are taking about .
ReplyDeleteReading the market analysis over the weekend..result?
ReplyDeleteGet me out of that trade right now son.
NO.
Oh, by the way to Anon 2.22..that tattoo suits you man.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteTo the blog administrator, well you wouldn't have to delete posts if the driving force behind this bull market calls it a day and cancelled all offers at buy the dips.
ReplyDeleteFor what it's worth..it's no good and we should accept we are wrong and withdrawal to the bench and wait for a better opportunity.
Pol, I think this is what they had in mind.
ReplyDeleteMacho
I've warned you before. Pointless profanity-laden nonsense is not welcome, and will now be deleted as I see fit. It adds less than nothing and I don't want it.
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ReplyDeleteWell then, changing the topic slightly, now we know why Kuroda brought out his huge bazooka. Japan is in recession, and not an inverted yield curve in sight. We did warn you that things were a little different on the other side of the looking glass.
ReplyDeleteInterestingly the result of a negative GDP shocker was a stronger yen after bouncing off 117 and now we are seeing Spoos sold as well. Curiouser and curiouser.
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ReplyDeleteDoes a Japanese snap election or otherwise favour the incumbent with the economy sucking so much wind ? Not so sure it does.
ReplyDeleteThe elderly voter block may cause some angst.
And btw. Anyone long Nikkei for all the wrong reasons..... well...
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ReplyDeleteAmps I think you need to do a couple of things.
ReplyDelete1) Change the strength of your preferred intoxicant.
2) Try writing without one analogy or metaphor. Keep what ever message you are trying to impart clear and precise, because not everyone is from the planet you are currently on.
At this rate it looks as though the men in white coats will have to take you away even if MM doesn't do it just for this blog.
They just came.
ReplyDeleteOkay,
ReplyDeleteKISS, I'll apply the keep it simple stupid method.
This market is a great teacher..and thinking it isn't will make a clown out of ya.Now we don't won't to be a family of clowns here do we?
When this bull run ends , and it will end one day..if your not going to pick up a skerrick of knowledge yourself then don't go and send any garbage trade ideas my way.
ReplyDeleteAmps,
ReplyDeleteWe don't want to lose you permanently, but at times it can be a bit tricky to decipher your wisdom. Let's all keep it simple and not get too excitable, and it will be one big Macro comment family....
best,
LB
LB, I'm trying elucidate that punters should not send garbage tips into my inbox if they themselves are not willing to show up and explain why I should back it..which as a matter of fact the last tip failure was due to my faulty selection process..but hey, I've paid for it and there's no need or want to have another try at..it's a dromedary if I've ever backed one.
ReplyDeleteIf they keep sending this tip to my inbox ,the bounce back is going to get harder and harder.
So anyone else seen the Lucy Kellaway sour grapes attack on FX traders in the FT that seems to revolve around apply 1980's social behaviour to her FX memories in a mkt she didn't get and criticising the traders grammar?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/511ad09e-6be2-11e4-b939-00144feabdc0.html
Surprised she didn't blame them for Ebola too.
I had to comment.
I'm cleaning the inbox of all traces of dromedaries.
ReplyDeleteNo more losing energy and effort when it's better served elsewhere..
If someone doesn't like it that I'm not willing to saddle up and ride along on a dromedary..bad luck, you know my inbox address.
Pol,
ReplyDelete"Barrow Boys and Lager Louts in Laddish Behaviour Shock, says Posh News Bird"
Stone the crows, guv.
In other news, Brent looks weak again today, and it's Mourning in America as the magnificent locomotive that is the US economy had a -0.1% IP print.
ReplyDeleteStill, the USD continues its run unabated as Dr Aghi once again wins the Eurovision Jawboning Contest this morning with his entry "Get Down On It, Got My Bazooka Workin'".
One wonders how well Ms. Kellaway would look if one were able to monitor all of communications (on and off the record) over a period of years and cherry pick the worst of them.
ReplyDeleteAgain, I would love for the hand-wringing moralists to come up with an actual number for the true societal cost of the FX fixing scandal.
Seems the only economy in the U. S. is the stock market. Only 37 percent of the U. S. population has a full time job.
ReplyDeleteAllianceBernstein’s chief market strategist Zlotnikov: Reducing Equity Overweight , anticipating “higher market volatility” next year
ReplyDeleteForbes
ReplyDeleteU.S. Government Largesse 2008-2014
Fannie and Freddie mortgage market support: $5.7T
Federal total deficits: $8.3T
State & Local deficits: $1.5T
Fed bond purchases : $4T
Total $19.5T
"That $20 trillion in US government support bought us just $2.7 trillion in total GDP expansion..."
JGB CDS cost rises...
ReplyDeletehttp://imgur.com/WqhamuU
Forbes:
Since the end of 2012, the central bank of Japan bought $1.5 trillion of bonds and currently owns a 23% of Japan’s public debt.
When is too much too much?
"When is too much too much?"
ReplyDeleteThe answer to that question will make you toss and turn! The BOJ/GPIF move is simple. They need to exchange low yielding JGBs for high yielding foreign assets to kickstart the income balance on the current account ... only way to do that without a bond market crash is for the BOJ to do the bid ...
Expect them to up the allocation of foreign assets to much higher than 25% in the next 12 months. See it is a hedge fund with its own printing press ... essentially, that is what it is.
Claus
Country A buying Country B's stock market is the modern version of mutually assured destruction. It's only natural that country-B is the worlds military superpower.
ReplyDeleteThat Forbes stuff makes me crazy. The question that it doesn't answer is "compared to what"?
ReplyDeleteIf the alternative is to "let it all burn", then no thank you.
- Whammer
I didn't know the Village People did that. I was actually thinking of the Sinitta one.
ReplyDeleteFunny what you learn on here. Cheers TMM!
That Lucy Kellaway is honestly the first person I have ever heard say an FX dealing room is boring. Must have been a right cow to work with.
ReplyDeleteMy best mentors were all boorish mean bully boys I'll have you know. Not including amplitude.
Current $SPX HV5 of 0.93 is lowest actual vol since Jan 30, 1969 (0.84)
ReplyDeleteWild night in Japan...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NKY:IND
Yes.. I ve just been rereading and scorecarding an old Japan post from spring 2013 when we questioned if targetting inflation would work. http://polemics-pains.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/japan-well-thats-what-happens-when-you.html
ReplyDelete