* In the end, Scotty managed to project a positive energy field into the afflicted area of the ship by manipulating the dilthium crystals. The blue curtain of negative energy dissipated, and Kirk + crew managed to overpower Captain Bruce, who was choking on a deep fried Rigel bar. In the end, however, Starfleet Command pardoned Bruce and agreed to grant him more operational autonomy on future missions.
* While the ECB may have been disappointed with the take up of yesterday's TLTRO, what did they expect? There isn't much carry left in peripheral bonds, willingness to lend hasn't been about the availability to procure liquidity, and banks get punished in the AQR for expanding their balance sheets. You can lead a horse to water (or any other source of liquidity), but you cannot make him drink if someone else has promised to flog him if he does so.
* That EUR/USD and cable are bother lower on the day tells you everything you need to know about the dollar trend: it is alive and well. Recall that in the 'race to the finish' survey, long dollars was the most popular candidate for a melt-up trade, and so it has turned out to be thus far.
* So Alibaba is going to use his magic lamp to conjure some $21.8 billion out of thin air. (One wonders where the 40 thieves may be lurking,) With yields continuing to edge higher and triple witching today, one does wonder if we are potentially approaching a cross roads for stocks....
huge reversal in the making on Eurostoxx
ReplyDeleteWRT LTRTO and AQR - Wasn't that somebody who promised to flog the horse the one trying to make the horse drink?
ReplyDeleteYes, which makes the whole situation even more farcical.
ReplyDelete(In reality, I would imagine that responsibility for the AQR is devolved to the regulatory arm of the ECB. I find it hard to credit that Draghi himself is doing the regulatory work.)
watch out people that little secret 'new bubble' is out for whoever was not seeing a reason for a market imminent top
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-17/dirty-secret-of-1-trillion-loans-is-when-do-you-get-money-back.html
if you short the first 10mn of US open today you will make money - it has gapped and crapped in Europe already
Ali Baba will rob US retail to the tune of the non locked $8bn, then down we go
RSP gapped and crapped while SPY is suspended in mid-air...
ReplyDeletehttp://imgur.com/KzL7doB
I don't even know what BABA actually does .. glorified EBAY?
ReplyDeleteAs for the ECB ... the TLTROs is a marathon, not a sprint. Coupled with private QE the ECB is now feeding the banks and willing buyers of anything they produce ... I think crazy things will happen with eurozone credit and financial equity markets in the next 12 months.
There is always carry by the way with the negative dep rate casting its ugly shadow as far out as 4-year ... carry, after all, is relative. Spanish 10-year at 50bp?
Claus
30 day TBills at NEGATIVE 1bp . 90 day Bills at 0.005% ( low of 2014 ) . 6mo Bills @ 0.035%
ReplyDeleteInvestors will be buying Alibaba Group Holding Limited, a Cayman Islands company instead of Alibaba itself. Absolutely no transparency. Nobody cares.
Big rallies in PIIG debt today . Spain @ 2.20% , Italy @ 2 3/8% . AAA's all near 1% . The swap into UST is so compelling
ReplyDeleteWhat's going on?
ReplyDeleteU.S. $13 Billion TIPS Auction Draws Lowest Demand in Six Years
CRB indexes smashes through 280
Aluminum futures down 6% in last few days
Nickel down 15% in last 9 trading sessions and corn , beans , wheat , sugar at their new daily contract lows. Cotton just above
Oil tanker rates down 2% to new low for 2014. Just 5+% to go and oil tanker rates will be at 52 week lows and pretty much back down in 21st century lows
AND Fisher Says He Sees Signs of Excess in Financial Markets
BABA is pretty impressive. They do a lot, the .com baba website is b2b most know, Taobao is like amazon/ebay and they have a bunch of other stuff. Alipay isnt part of the IPO.
ReplyDeleteAll US listed companies go through a Cayman island sub, its how they are able to control a chinese company. its shady but working so far.
Commodity weakness or Dollar strength? Grains are having a good harvest and apparently there is a glut of brent crude.
There is financial exuberance. Look at the Yen. Carry is back!
sorry all US listed Chinese co's go through a Cayman sub. Not all US co's! The Cayman sub is just where all the profits are allocated to..lol
ReplyDeleteAll TLTROs, current and future, mature in Sept 2018 and have to be repaid then. The fun will be over early next year. Heck, who needs 3y money at 15bps fixed these days ?
ReplyDeleteThe exuberance of Bucky's Parabola has created some astounding lows in mining stocks. Not quite on the scale of 2008, but take a look at VALE, SQM and PAAS, to name just three falling knives that are clearly dollar-sensitive and even pay a dividend. Might be a bit more of this to go if USDJPY can run to 110. Credit to the readership of MM for picking the right nag in the September Sprint Cup. Bucky just pinned back his ears and headed for home.
ReplyDeleteNico was on the ball this morning, the reversal in NY began more or less after BABA opened and European markets closed. Small craps the laggards again today. Price Is News.
Far be it from LB to state the obvious, but in the story of Ali Baba he encountered Forty Thieves. Presumably these were either venture capital / private equity guys or the brokers who priced the IPO....
ReplyDeleteOr maybe the 40 thieves are the crooks selling counterfeit stuff that caused the decline and delisting the last time baba ipo'd?
ReplyDeleteLB,
ReplyDeleteLooks like balance sheet is king once again for miners.
100 year bonds all the rage...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-16/century-of-debt-suiting-ohio-state-at-these-rates-muni-credit.html
SKEW reached its all time high of 146.88 on
ReplyDeleteOctober 16, 1998 in the midst of the Russian crisis. TODAY 146.08 while $DJIA $SPY made ATH's
Every single commodity futures contract I looked at yesterday wasred with the exception of hogs... Every. Single. One.
ReplyDeleteSpoos are falling in overnight trading, currently down 10 handles, and the Nikkei is also lower. USDJPY hit 109.18 and has reversed below 109. US10y at 2.55%, well off last week's peak at 2.65%. Given the levels of complacency and optimism last week, these moves are not entirely surprising. Got puts?
ReplyDeletemeanwhile Europe bull bear fight back to the zero line - MessiAghi and a cheap EUR entry might be the reason for relative strength this morning
ReplyDeleteAir France pilots on strike got what they wanted: the suspension of its low cost project. It is always fascinating to see how France keeps on fighting 21st century reality
From the Tower of Babel...
ReplyDeletevia Wirtschaftswoche:
"ECB Not Currently Planning Quantitative Easing, Noyer Says. ECB not currently planning to loosen its stability policy or to buy government bonds, citing ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer."
US existing homes disappointing (yawn...) presaging another quarter of decline for the US Macro Surprise index. More importantly, we are at a key point in the battle over USDJPY. With everyone and their Uncle long and bullish, we learn that the second Japanese sales tax hike will be delayed until October 2015. So while no-one could argue with USDJPY going to 120 in the longer term, in the short and medium term we might now see a pullback in this Carry Trade. Be careful out there, Monkey.
ReplyDeleteIt was Ali Baba's brother Kasim who was drawn and quartered by the 40 thieves because he forgot the secret password. Who will be the modern day market equivalent of his brother Kasim?
ReplyDeleteSkippy was in Italy a couple of weeks ago and a few of the Italian banks noted that there may have been a credit crunch in Italy (and elsewhere in Europe) in the lead up to the AQR ans Stress tests. There is clearly an inherent conflict in asking banks to raise capital and lend at the same time. The (less credit worthy) part of the corporate sector in Italy would argue that there is a lack of supply of credit, while the banks argued it was a lack of demand. The truth is probably somewhere in between.
6 month TBills at 0.015% ....new 2+yr low yield
ReplyDeleteUSDJPY staying below 109 and US small caps are not bouncing. This move looks like it may not be over.
ReplyDeleteThe 200 day moving average hasn't been kissed for longer than Mangler Merkel. Getting down there seems impossible to many recent entrants to this market but would actually be a 5% decline in SPX. That really puts things into perspective, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteit might be kissed AND penetrated this time
ReplyDeleteSanta on (low) strike this year