Sunday, September 15, 2013

Ready Reckoner on Syrian Negotiators


Team Macro Man have drawn up a quick ready reckoner for use when considering the Syrian negotiations.

21 comments:

abee crombie said...

Holly EM, batman! the summers relief rally is in full effect in EM FX so far.

Nico G said...

markets went up in fear of Summers, markets raged up in relief

moderate up climbing a wall of worry, strong up in relief

once upon a time those Monday gaps were smacked without mercy, without hesitation

Anonymous said...

One Summers doesn't make a swallow....

Anonymous said...

A very descriptive chart of the saber rattling indeed. If one didn't know better, Syria could be considered as an extension of the cold war - just without the ideologies. Game of political chess. Probably squeezing Iran in a corner is one target for the US and keeping an ally a target for Russia.

Meanwhile in Europe it seems that the late bank account confiscation of Cyprus is finally getting a sequel (was already beginning to worry about all the quitness) - this time from Poland - where private retirement funds are getting nationalized:

http://www.wnd.com/2013/09/government-confiscates-half-of-citizens-pensions/

Logic being, when you add "assets" to the government balance sheet, then you get cheaper loan and the politicians can once more fulfill dreams of the voters.

I guess all we need now is Djieselbloem to tell us that Poland is a template and after that Draghi to deny it. :-)

Anonymous said...

C Says
I don't care much for the equities price action on news updays. The sudden surge followed by a droop does not inspire.

Polemic said...

C, I agree .. looks like a short term top yesterday. HAve a feeling that we are good news'ed out and the last spike was a bit of a positional capitulation leaving folks much more neutral .. and probably a bit more sanguine

ntwsc said...

Ooh I'll have a bucket of sangwine please ;)

Anonymous said...

I have been one of your silent admirers over the past few years and always appreciated your insight and commitment, not to mention your collective humour.

Interesting times, looks like everyone wants to be positive, but smells dangerous to me.

Leftback said...

Might not be a bad day to pick up some protection. Our old favorite instrument the XHB is looking frothy again, with housing starts data tomorrow and then The Tapir is due to be born at 2pm in the afternoon.

Punters Quiz on the Tiny Tapir, it will be:

A) $5B less per month, all USTs, no MBS.
B) $10B less per month, all USTs.
C) $20B less per month, USTs and MBS.
D) Stillborn and delayed until the end of the year.

Leftback said...

Once we get past the Taper, the focus may be on some dogshit earnings by the US banks, who have suffered along with the big bond funds from a dismal quarter in fixed income:

Fixed Income Revenues Plunge at Jefferies

Anonymous said...

C Says
We now enter my gun shy period of the year. An annual pilgrimage to revisit my first entry into the markets under self management. Needless to say it was a bloody business and even now many years later I still recall the humbling experience of waking up covered in red ink.
I'll also have "a bucket of Sangwine".

Heaven's Gate said...

Steel on the 10yr

Leftback said...

Gold giving shorts the finger.

Bond bears looking uncomfortable.
REIT longs basking in September sunshine.

No tapir. Not even a tiny one.
US economy still weaker than Budweiser.

Anonymous said...

Pretty bearish forecasts, real GDP forecasts lower, core PCE & PCE forecasts also lower

Anonymous said...

"Now witness the power of these fully armed and operational mass expectations."

Sailing along with status quo as the media drumming the last half year about the Tapir that ever didn't materialize and everything goes crazy. :)

Yes LB in the parallel reality if the Tapir were $5bln for TSY's, everything would be crashing down right now. Just for the symbolics of it. Just sitting on my spoo longs and glad I do.

Leftback said...

Loving it here, long REITs and AGG, with a few EM and European equities. Yield is still a very comfortable place to sit it out in a slow growth/no growth/faux growth low inflation environment.

Anonymous said...

RBC: "Wow, we are floored in the research booth. These guys are amazing - and extremely dovish. They are literally doing a 180 here"

Anonymous said...

Well he caught this punter off guard. Frankly I'm totally confused. The fed is working off the assumption that QE is helping the real economy, but we are 4 years in now and its not yet strong enough to take the training wheels off. The relationship between QE and employment is very weak - why not continue QE until crack spreads widen to $40 again? Or lets target QE until childhood obesity gets down to tolerable levels.

I just dont see them communicating any real plan about how/if/when they are going to reduce the purchases.

I admire the guys with balls of steel buying FB up here, going in Q4, not even thinking about protecting their EOY pnl. For me, too many crosscurrents. I'm waiting for another pitch.

Leftback said...

Short positions in ARR and NLY will take at least a week to cover on normal trading volume. Short interest in AGNC and MTGE not as large, but it's going to be an entire week or two of the red hot poker for Mister Shorty and his rising rates orchestra.

Anonymous said...

I guess all the data are going to gain immunity to "suckness" for a while, since Master Ben will be watching our backs and after that Padawan Yellen will continue practising the righteous monetary ways.

All we need now is Dr. Aghi acting in tandem after the Mangler (presenting mean 'ol granny to Club Med) cleared the path to the next term and makes a turnaround in the attitude towards union monetary policy, as Germanys union external exports begin drying up.

EIDO leading the EM relief... amazing.

Leftback said...

Don't look now, Miss Moneypenny, but Bond seems to be unusually full of himself. He's out there screwing everything that moves today.....