Tuesday, June 11, 2013

TMM ft Emerging Market Fund Manager.

Continuing with the Emerging Market rave, eat your heart out "Swedish House Mafia ft Tinie Tempah with your Miami to Ibiza. 

Here's Team Macro Man ft. Emerging Market Fund Manager with 

Manilla to Floripa 

He says he likes my Sharpe but wants it USD
I stay up all night watching SGD
He says he loves my trades as I lift CLP
And buy EM rated just Baa3
Earned my black BM with its COE
But Muddy asks what's hidin' in my SCB
I say ha! Wear your shorts and prep your DIP
Trading EM bonds is simple yield carry.

But Ohh ! Scream one! Everybody! Get out of your positions! 
Pay attention and listen,     
We're trying to get this out in one print, 
So lets try and make that happen
Sell now! Action!                                    

Hit the CME, they like my dealing fee
Tripped out of THB, caught nasty VND.
I'm out on PHP and Taiwan CNT.
Raving at TMM, London to NYC
Now looking for my visa and my Visa 
Where's my driver? Can't cut it finer.  
I'm up to my neck with the Korean regulator

You can find me on the table full of vodka and tequila  
Surrounded by investors and they couldn't look much meaner.
Wake up in the morning with a Senate spawned subpoena
With a book like LTCM, It couldn't get much bleaker.

Patriot Act may get me or they catch me through FISA
'Cuz thats standard procedure from Manilla to Floripa.


abee crombie said...

Nice Mr Jurere Internacional !!

There was a time, I used to look into my trading screen, and I'll saw was green.

Those days are gone, those bonuses are forlorn.

My father said. Dont you worry, dont you worry child, the markets got a plan for you

PS: real estate in maimi is still hot, mostly at very high end, but also for the average joe schmoe (like me) no inventory

Anonymous said...

All right folks, when do the muppets collectively embrace the absurdity of rising rates and rush back?

Leftback said...

When everyone starts to do convexity hedging at once and then a massive Treasury squeeze begins?

How about it already happened this morning?

Peter said...

Absolute gold guys, well done

Leftback said...

Maybe the emerging market bond sell-off talk is a bit overdone, interesting analysis here:

This Time Is Different - Asset Swaps and EM Bonds

abee crombie said...

Interesting LB...also I know it is just a number, but many of the bonds I wanted to buy that shot straight up recently are now trading at or near par. I havent been around the EM Bond block long enough but I do think that the 00's provides a little bounce

Leftback said...

Abee, Greek govies are plummeting again, and worse they turned off the public tv! If we see a resumption of issues in Europe, then much maligned EMBs and USTs will look like a lovely safe haven again in no time at all.

We think some more unwind of EURJPY is quite likely as the BoJ has shot their quiver for now (third arrow joke there) and we are also expecting EURUSD to observe the laws of gravity soon as well in response to Karlsruhe OMT comments. In other words, monetary easing via the conventional route (rate cut) is very much back on the table for ECB.

What is Betty doing up here at 1,57?

Leftback said...

Yield watchers will want to know that the REITs are mostly trading at 12 month lows, even the preferreds, which typically yield around 8%. Boots, etc.....

Anonymous said...

Detapering Partners taking a beating these days. Maybe we should pull a Paulson and write about the undue focus on the sorry performance there, where our other fund Directionless Gamma is doing so well.


Leftback said...

DD, I think we may be setting ourselves up for a monster No Taper Rally and Short Slaughter either before or after next weeks FOMC. It's all getting a bit binary, isn't it?

As our hosts pointed out, the Fed never tightens after ISM of 49, b/c of the unbreakable rule of ISMs. Indeed the FX market has been pricing this in already for weeks. So we can forget Taper Tantrums for now, and ride those interest rate sensitive sectors from the long side for a while [Cough: MBS, Treasuries, mREITs].

10y Treasury auction today had a very large take by indirects, European interest in safe havens picking up again, one assumes?

abee crombie said...

LB, I dont really see the move in GGBs, take a look at the Colombian Titulos for a fun chart. CB intervention in BRL and it seems like everyone is dumping/ no bids for LatAm.

But you got to hand it to the Fed. They talk about tapering, all the 'carry' trades get killed but the biggest of them all and most important, the US stock market barely reacts.

Move in Europe currencies is odd, I'll step aside of that one.

btw, AGNC in a presentation said that BV fell similar to Q1, which would put it trading at 0.85 or so, like I estimated yesterday.

Common JPY hold that 95

Anonymous said...

Rates are going up cause Bernanke is tapering, INNIT??

Anonymous said...

C Says
Talk about major worry about being left holding the bond duration bag.

On a positive note the mindless surge for the exit as opened up a few nice cherries in the short mat corp sector which I had been waiting to tuck away in the bottom drawer which has looked awfully empty this year. Like any good squirrel I'm always ready to start filling my winter store, because I'm very protective of my nuts.

abee crombie said...

Agree c... But Japan is starting to freak me out. Wake up abee and kroda. This is a melt down here. Wait longer at your own peril. At least tsy bonds are not selling on this, then all bets would be off.

Anonymous said...

C Says
I don't read the Japan situation like you. To me this is all good, it's the market who have got it wrong.
By that I mean Japan has enacted the start of a multi year policy change to try to plot a different course for their economic future. From a path that many had already said was unsustainable.
Now after 20 years locked in deflation in my view it's going to take a lot longer than a few months to play out.
The problem is not the policy and how it works in future. The problem is the f...kwits who always want to front run it, always want to do so by piling on the leverage thinking they can find the greater fool and be out with the alpha ,always the economists and analysts who want to comment on every burp and fart that prices make seeking some immediacy of meaning.

This is the first twitch in policy, the more the market gives back from it's initial response to that the better, because it offers the multi year trend followers the chance to assess what if any fundamental progress has been made and decide if any further position should be taken.

Leftback said...

Yes, we agree - there will be an attractive entry point in Japan again before long - once the Seeking Alpha crowd has finished crapping their pants.

Look, we catch a fair amount of flak on here from time to time, often for good reason, but we want to point out that the things we have been Kevlaring this week (REITs and selected EMs) are all bouncing today.

30y fixed mortgage at 12 month high at almost 4% this week, but it's time for that market to turn. MORT ETF is up 2%, some REITs up 5%, and even the RSX and EWZ also bouncing off lows. Let's hope it's not the expired feline variety...

Some of the selling in REITs this week had the feel of forced liquidation, as though someone in Greenwich had ingested too much short yen and had to puke up some goodies. You don't see volume spikes in the REIT preferreds very often.