Friday, June 14, 2013

Buy, Buy, Miss the Rally and Die.

Team Macro Man turn to Don McLean to describe this year's trading.




A long long time ago
I can still remember
How the market used to make me smile
And I knew if I just bought bonds
I'd make some money being long
And maybe I'd be happy for a while
But Fed tapering made me shiver
with every ten year note delivered
Bad news in every headline
I couldn't buy one more time
I can't remember if I cried
When I saw punters swept out with the tide
Something broke me deep inside
The day the market died

So buy, buy, miss the rally and die.
I've waited for the data but the data weren't high
Talk the good old Fed's tapering QE's a lie
I'm singing this'll be the day that I buy
This'll be the day that I buy.

Did you write to Hilsenrath
And do you lunch on the Grapes of Wrath?
If Bernanke tells you so?
Now do you believe in Spooz and Blues?
Can I hedge by selling lots of 2's
And...can Aussie escape the noose?
Well I know that you're long dollar/yen
'Cause at 101 I stopped you in
You bought some RKOs.
Man both of those got hosed.
I was long the Nikkei, short the swiss.
With a dual digi, couldn't miss,
But I saw my p/l had pissed
The day the market died
We started singing

Buy, buy, miss the rally and die.
I've waited for the data but the data weren't high
Talk the good old Fed's tapering QE's a lie
I'm singing this'll be the day that I buy
This'll be the day that I buy.

Now for 5 years we have been repressed
And frankly I have been so depressed
But that's not how it used to be
When markets set the price of rates
And hedge funds didn't put up gates
And no one ever heard of Fed QE
Oh and when Bill Gross got the big bone,
He rang the Fed up on the phone
"Look I can't sell MBS
...come on, Ben, just buy the rest!"
And while Obama read a book on Marx
The people stormed Zucotti park,
And we sang dirges in the dark
The day the market died
And started singing

Buy, buy, miss the rally and die.
I've waited for the data but the data weren't high
Talk the good old Fed's tapering QE's a lie
I'm singing this'll be the day that I buy
This'll be the day that I buy

Helter skelter in a summer swelter,
My Bunds were saved with a put spread shelter.
One-four-five and falling fast...
And ten years blew through two-oh-eight,
I tried to fix my mortgage rate,
But the bank told me I'd have to wait.
Now the pre-Fed air was laced with doom
As the CIO cleaned out the room
We all got up to trade
Oh, but not a buy was made.
'Cause when I tried to receive DI's,
The trader wouldn't make my size.
And I couldn't beleive my eyes,
The day the market died

Buy, buy, miss the rally and die.
I've waited for the data but the data weren't high
Talk the good old Fed's tapering QE's a lie
I'm singing this'll be the day that I buy
This'll be the day that I buy

And there we were, all in one trade
Abenomics rules, our year is made
With no need to think again.
Moves were nimble, charts were sick,
Japan trades on the candlestick
And trends are Kuroda's only friend
And as I watched those JGBs
I felt a tremble in my knees
No angel born in hell
Could tell me when to sell
And as the stops were triggered in the night
In some sort of sacrificial rite,
I saw Schauble laughing with delight
The day the market died
And he was singing

Buy, buy, miss the rally and die.
I've waited for the data but the data weren't high
Talk the good old Fed's tapering QE's a lie
I'm singing this'll be the day that I buy
This'll be the day that I buy

I met a girl who sold the Blues,
And I asked her for some happy news
She just stopped out and went away
And I went down and sold some VIX,
Going back to my old tricks,
But my broker said that model wouldn't play
And in the street the traders teemed,
The brokers cried, and the journos dreamed,
But not a word was spoken,
The IB chat was broken
And the three men that I want gone
Draghi, Ben, Kuroda-san
They all agreed their work was done
The day the market died
So I'm left singing

Buy, buy, miss the rally and die.
I've waited for the data but the data weren't high
Talk the good old Fed's tapering QE's a lie
I'm singing this'll be the day that I buy
This'll be the day that I buy.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Kudos for using the long version... what a classic !

Eddie

Polemic said...

What Eddie? You mean there's a short version? Urrrghhh..

Anonymous said...

Awesome work. I could produce 1/2 the quality of that work if you took all my song writing talent for my entire life and summed it up in one piece.

Look at the volume differences in UBT and TBT. Short interest in treasuries is magnitudes higher. Personally price action for the past year in TBT looks like a flag to me...

Jay

Anonymous said...

Yes, Polemic :-(

Cut everything starting with "Helter Skelter"... that's the one we usually hear on the radio :-(((

Eddie

Anonymous said...

WOW! a masterpiece...just fantastic.

Anonymous said...

Brilliant. Even got me playing the orginal so I could sing along.

northshore

Polemic said...

Thanks Anon and Northshore,

Oh and Northshore, good point, I've just added the original song to the post to make that singalong experience all the more easy.

But What do I Know? said...

Bravo!

Saul Bollox said...

Blimey, Mr P! That is fakkin' excellent, innit?

Leftback said...

The media like this one, TMM:

MarketWatch

abee crombie said...

So now the bounce has come and all wait for the Fed. Gotta be honest, Spoos action is what I thought but EM and i-rates not sure.

BB disappoints equity monkeys and it could get ugly fast. Its not my game plan but I want to initiate my trades when the market is quiet and get out when its moving fast.

Now looks like an opportune time to get in and re-position.