Thursday, February 07, 2013
A quicky pre Carney
ECB day - TMM felt that the last ECB meeting was dominated by Dr Aghi's valedictory performance not unlike a returning Caesar entering Rome after defeating the Ursine tribes. All that was missing was the laurel wreath. SO where do we go from here? Data is indeed improving but as always markets are not about working out what will happen its about marrying what you expect to happen against what everyone else expects will happen and though TMM are comfortable that Europe is economically on the mend we do feel that EL Dottore and those piling straight back into Euro may have over counted their chickens even before they have hatched.
Carney Day - Similarly, but conversely re market positioning, ahead of Mr. Carney's testimony to the Treasury select committee. We wrote a post on our longer term thoughts on Carney last week but the hype is that he will give an outright dovish performance with some expecting him to go completely BoJ over policy. TMM can see him doing as little as possible to rock the boat as we are still four months off his official arrival and it would be foolhardy to lay the foundations for commitments that may well need to change before he takes up his post. Why paint yourself into a corner when you could have a free option instead.
So marrying these two events we suppose we should really be short of EUR/GBP into them.
Oh, and TMM would like to congratulate Taiwan on two fronts. On successfully launching the trading of the Taiwan offshore remimbi and, more importantly, launching the best currency code since Argentina and its ARS. We welcome the arrival of the CNT.