Thursday, August 19, 2010

Twenty Questions

Team Macro Man is sure they are not alone in struggling for inspiration in these summer markets, so it seems like a perfect time for another batch of questions.

  1. Will the 10yr Treasury yield breach 2% this year?
  2. When will the Japanese intervene?
  3. Will the US finally get tough with China in the run up to the mid-terms?
  4. When will the UK have a 4% CPI print?
  5. What will US GDP be for 2H 2010?
  6. Will SNB LLC resume macro punting (aka EURCHF interventions) this year?
  7. Does the SPX trade 1040 or 1140 first?
  8. Will Simon Hughes cause the ConDem coalition to collapse?
  9. Who will win the Labour leadership contest?
  10. Are we turning Japanese?
  11. Who will be the first to hike? Fed, BoE or ECB?
  12. Does Drukenmiller's departure herald the end of Macro trading?
  13. When will the divergence between Eurozone and US growth surprises begin to close, and how? Eurozone weakness or US strength?
  14. Will the Republicans capture the House?
  15. Will Voldemort ever stop taking the piss?
  16. Which will be the next Macro fund to call it quits?
  17. Is the Bank of England losing control of inflation?
  18. Is there a bond bubble?
  19. When will the Fed move the Interest On Reserves (IOR) Rate negative?
  20. What will happen to the GSEs?


Игры рынка said...

I'll give it a try

1. yes
2. very soon
3. yes
4. no
5. positive about 1%
6. no
7. 1140
8. -
9. -
10. yes (but who is we?)
11. Fed. ECB will be the first to cut :)
12. -
13. Never. Euro-zone is doomed. Current figures lag US by 2-4 quarters as always
14. yes
15. -
16. -
17. No, it never really had it
18. NO!
19. Never. It does not matter. Banks do not lend out reserves
20. Irrelevant

Yan said...
2.somewhere in 84 handle
5. 0.5-1.0%
13.2H10, eurozone weakness.
17.looks like
18.not yet
20.implicit becomes explicit.

FX said...

13.1st qtr 2011 - Euro weakness
20.Death by a thousands cuts with haircuts.

Leftback said...

Brilliant. Love 20 Questions. Will be back to weigh in when all this lot calms down a bit...

The Oriole Way said...

Another question: US unemployment, 10% or 9% next?

CV said...

1: Yes (Q4)
2: If the USD/JPY hits 80 or if it stays at 85 til Q4
3: No
4: They won't
5: (qoq) Q3 0.3%, Q4 0.2%
6: No
7: 1040
8: No Idea
9: Ibid
10: Europe is, the US is touch and go; I think they might just make it!
11: Fed in Q4 2011
12: Who?
13: In H02 2010 (Eurozone weakness)
14: Yes
15: No
16: Not yours I hope!
17: No
18: Yes, but it has some time still to run
19: H01 2011
20: Nothing in the next 18 months.

Leftback said...

1. No.
2. At 80.
3. No. Jawboning and Faux Warnings
4. Not happening. Demand too soft.
5. +0.5-1%
6. No
7. 1140
8. No, but he will do A Lot of Hard Yakka.
9. Not tonight, Darling.
10. Hai. Hai. Hai !!!
11. BoE
12. Just the end of Drunken Miller trading macro.
13. Remain out of phase.
14. The banks have already captured the House.
15. Is the Pope Protestant?
16. Taleb? Arrogant, annoying and wrong.
17. No. Demand destruction cures high prices.
18. NO! But Treasuries are rich here.
19. Never.
20. They are the US Bad Bank. Slow bleeding.

Nic said...

1. Not this year
2. Sub 80
3. No
4. Can't see it
5. Less than 1% 2H 2010.
6. NO SNB interventions this year
7. S&P to retest May low next and then bounce so 1040 possible.
8. Simon who?
9. Balls
10. Yes
11. BoE
12. No just a changing of the guard
13. Following the great crash of summer 2011, with eurozone weakness.
14. Agree with LB. Otherwise yes.
15. Voldemort? Never.
16. Paulson :)
17. No, it was just the cheap pound.
18. Not yet.
19. H2 2011
20. They will get bailed, structural change way down the road.

Nothing about shiny metals :) Silver is teetering ...

Will said...

1. No
2. Hopeully soon!
3. Yes but China will give the bird
4. No
5. ~1.25%
6. No
7. 1040
8. No
9. D Millibrand
10. No
11. Fed
12. No - plenty of other big boys out there
13. Yes, eurozone weakness and a (comparitive) recovery in the US
14. Yes
15. No
16. -
17. No
18. Yup, but it will get bigger before it bursts
19. Not in this cycle
20. Structural change underway but major re-organisation will have to wait until the next presidential term.

MKGI said...

1. No
2. When is touches 83 in Asia trading
3. No
4. Not any time soon
5. 1ish
6. Yeah, he misses the markets
7. 1140
8. No
9. David
10. No, no, no.
11. BoE
12. Nah, some of us still need to work
13. Soon, US strength
14. No
15. Yes, in about 400 years when they are on the way down again.
16. Hopefully not this one
17. Not yet.....
18. Probably
19. Never
20. Stay zombie like for years

Leftback said...

Does anyone understand what Weber was saying this morning? Exit strategy? Surely you jest, mein Herr?

I wonder if this marks the end of the flattener for the time being... as fans of the steepener have thrown in the towel...

Morgan Stanley Issues Mea Culpa

Smirk permissible?

Nemo Incognito said...

Fair enough LB. Got to say though, Hindenbergs aside technicals in equities look universally horrid. There's probably room for a head fake stop run in rates before it goes even further on the back on some almighty greed/fear selloff. Lots of cheap stuff out there (XES, XLE in particular) but that's no guarantee they don't go even lower.

Nic said...

So Paulo Pellegrini / PSQR is the next to close.

FX said...
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FX said...
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FX said...

Been over at ZH-land,this was very interesting,

However, the following may just be another validation to add to our " at the bottom leading indicator"

UK session rules the day, vertical lines start of Frankfurt session.

ps.....I don't have to hide from those black-helicopters no more :-)

Leftback said...

The advent of the POMOs have given us a whole new way for the Treasury market to be gamed, in addition to the usual auction gaming. The 3-5y are up today b/c that's what the Fed will buy tomorrow.

Isn't free market capitalism wonderful?

Leftback said...

Perhaps Greece should have POMOs, eh? The 2y is nudging 11% again, it's only a matter of time before the Greek tragedy becomes more drachmatic....

FX said...

LB,gamed?,Fxland is the land of the GAMEMASTERS!